Climate change threats to protected plants of China: an evaluation based on species distribution modeling

Climate change poses major new challenges to biodiversity conservation. Distribution ranges of species have been proven to be affected by climate anomalies. Detecting the extent of protected species response to climate change can help formulate flexible conservation strategies to overcome the changing climate. Using species distribution modeling and high resolution climate data, we simulated current distribution patterns of 233 protected plants in China. Those patterns were then projected into future suitable habitats for each species under nine climate change scenarios, with no migration or full migration hypotheses. Under the most extreme climate change scenario （CGCM-B2a）, we evaluated species extinction risks. Sixteen percent of protected plants are expected to lose more than 30 % of their current ranges. By calculating areal shifts, hotspots for emigrants, immigrants, and persistent species were identified under climate change. Flexible conservation strategies were addressed for those regions. Those strategies strongly depend on the migration types of species and sensitivity of the hotspots to changing climate. In hotspots for emigrants, the main conservation strategy is ex situ protection; protected species from these regions should be stored in seed banks or botanical gardens. For hotspots of immigrants, enough space should be maintained for new species, and some measures are necessary to assist dispersal. For hotspots of persistent species, more natural reserves are needed. We highlight related fields that can help conserve protected species in the future, such as conserving the soil seed bank and understanding of the effects of migration ability and interactions between protected species.     

Predicting distributions of known and unknown reptile species in Madagascar

Despite the importance of tropical biodiversity, informative species distributional data are seldom available for biogeographical study or setting conservation priorities. Modelling ecological niche distributions of species offers a potential solution; however, the utility of old locality data from museums, and of more recent remotely sensed satellite data, remains poorly explored, especially for rapidly changing tropical landscapes. Using 29 modern data sets of environmental land coverage and 621 chameleon occurrence localities from Madagascar (historical and recent), here we demonstrate a significant ability of our niche models in predicting species distribution. At 11 recently inventoried sites, highest predictive success (85.1%) was obtained for models based only on modern occurrence data (74.7% and 82.8% predictive success, respectively, for pre-1978 and all data combined). Notably, these models also identified three intersecting areas of over-prediction that recently yielded seven chameleon species new to science. We conclude that ecological niche modelling using recent locality records and readily available environmental coverage data provides informative biogeographical data for poorly known tropical landscapes, and offers innovative potential for the discovery of unknown distributional areas and unknown species.     

Climate change and evolutionary adaptation

Evolutionary adaptation can be rapid and potentially help species counter stressful conditions or realize ecological opportunities arising from climate change. The challenges are to understand when evolution will occur and to identify potential evolutionary winners as well as losers, such as species lacking adaptive capacity living near physiological limits. Evolutionary processes also need to be incorporated into management programmes designed to minimize biodiversity loss under rapid climate change. These challenges can be met through realistic models of evolutionary change linked to experimental data across a range of taxa.     

Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming

Documented shifts in geographical ranges, seasonal phenology, community interactions, genetics and extinctions have been attributed to recent global warming. Many such biotic shifts have been detected at mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere-a latitudinal pattern that is expected because warming is fastest in these regions. In contrast, shifts in tropical regions are expected to be less marked because warming is less pronounced there. However, biotic impacts of warming are mediated through physiology, and metabolic rate, which is a fundamental measure of physiological activity and ecological impact, increases exponentially rather than linearly with temperature in ectotherms. Therefore, tropical ectotherms (with warm baseline temperatures) should experience larger absolute shifts in metabolic rate than the magnitude of tropical temperature change itself would suggest, but the impact of climate warming on metabolic rate has never been quantified on a global scale. Here we show that estimated changes in terrestrial metabolic rates in the tropics are large, are equivalent in magnitude to those in the north temperate-zone regions, and are in fact far greater than those in the Arctic, even though tropical temperature change has been relatively small. Because of temperature's nonlinear effects on metabolism, tropical organisms, which constitute much of Earth's biodiversity, should be profoundly affected by recent and projected climate warming.     

Field parameterization and experimental test of the neutral theory of biodiversity

Ecologists would like to explain general patterns observed across multi-species communities, such as species-area and abundance-frequency relationships, in terms of the fundamental processes of birth, death and migration underlying the dynamics of all constituent species. The unified neutral theory of biodiversity and related theories based on these fundamental population processes have successfully recreated general species-abundance patterns without accounting for either the variation among species and individuals or resource-releasing processes such as predation and disturbance, long emphasized in ecological theory. If ecological communities can be described adequately without estimating variation in species and their interactions, our understanding of ecological community organization and the predicted consequences of reduced biodiversity and environmental change would shift markedly. Here, I introduce a strong method to test the neutral theory that combines field parameterization of the underlying population dynamics with a field experiment, and apply it to a rocky intertidal community. Although the observed abundance-frequency distribution of the system follows that predicted by the neutral theory, the neutral theory predicts poorly the field experimental results, indicating an essential role for variation in species interactions.     

Sky islands of southwest China. I: an overview of phylogeographic patterns

Sky islands are high-elevation areas in continental mountain ranges,which are geographically isolated.We adopted this concept for the mountains in southwest China,which are among the most important biodiversity hot spots on earth.We reviewed the phylogeographic studies of this area and highlighted the sky-island features.We concluded that the genetic structures of species in these islands were shaped by complex topography,climate and habitats.The global climate change,such as Pleistocene climate fluctuations and periodic uplift of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau,also have important effects on biodiversity and geographic patterns,when species have responded idiosyncratically by changing their distributions or through adaptation.Future research needs in sky islands include multilocus data and comparative phylogeographic studies,integrating with the methodological advances in the other fields.Using these approaches,we can examine to what degree the geographic,climate and/or biological factors,shape strong geographic patterns,promote diversification/speciation and preserve species/genetic diversity.We hope this paper will inspire future work to uncover the mechanism that has generated the endemic biodiversity and to further resolve the most essential problem:How to protect the biodiversity with limited funding during the coming drastic global climate change.     

Primary forests are irreplaceable for sustaining tropical biodiversity

Human-driven land-use changes increasingly threaten biodiversity, particularly in tropical forests where both species diversity and human pressures on natural environments are high. The rapid conversion of tropical forests for agriculture, timber production and other uses has generated vast, human-dominated landscapes with potentially dire consequences for tropical biodiversity. Today, few truly undisturbed tropical forests exist, whereas those degraded by repeated logging and fires, as well as secondary and plantation forests, are rapidly expanding. Here we provide a global assessment of the impact of disturbance and land conversion on biodiversity in tropical forests using a meta-analysis of 138 studies. We analysed 2,220 pairwise comparisons of biodiversity values in primary forests (with little or no human disturbance) and disturbed forests. We found that biodiversity values were substantially lower in degraded forests, but that this varied considerably by geographic region, taxonomic group, ecological metric and disturbance type. Even after partly accounting for confounding colonization and succession effects due to the composition of surrounding habitats, isolation and time since disturbance, we find that most forms of forest degradation have an overwhelmingly detrimental effect on tropical biodiversity. Our results clearly indicate that when it comes to maintaining tropical biodiversity, there is no substitute for primary forests.     

Vegetation Restoration Technique System and Its Ecological Functions of the Degraded Ecosystem in the Arid-Hot Valleys —— Taking the Example of Typical Mode in Small Watershed of Yuanmou

This paper concluded the vegetation restoration technique system in the arid-hot valleys and studied the anti-erosion function, environmental function and biological diversity effects of vegetation restoration on the ecosystem in the arid-hot valleys. The results showed that the soil erodibility decreased significantly after the vegetation restoration. The climate environment of the small watershed had a great improvement after the vegetation restoration, of which the temperature decreased, the humidity increased, the harsh environment of dry and hot in this region changed. The studies of the ecosystem biodiversity were mainly on the analysis of the relations between biodiversity and ecological function of the artificial ecological forest pattern and the natural enclosed treatment mode on the severely of degraded land. It could conclude that the natural enclosed treatment mode is helpful to the biodiversity of the ecosystem and the improvement and stability of the ecosystem, and Leucaena artificial forest restoration pattern reduced the species diversity but optimized the ecological function. Therefore, as to the severely and extremely severely degraded ecosystem in the arid-hot valleys, Leucaena pattern of gully control and natural enclosed treatment mode are the relatively optimal choices.     

Tracking apex marine predator movements in a dynamic ocean

Pelagic marine predators face unprecedented challenges and uncertain futures. Overexploitation and climate variability impact the abundance and distribution of top predators in ocean ecosystems. Improved understanding of ecological patterns, evolutionary constraints and ecosystem function is critical for preventing extinctions, loss of biodiversity and disruption of ecosystem services. Recent advances in electronic tagging techniques have provided the capacity to observe the movements and long-distance migrations of animals in relation to ocean processes across a range of ecological scales. Tagging of Pacific Predators, a field programme of the Census of Marine Life, deployed 4,306 tags on 23 species in the North Pacific Ocean, resulting in a tracking data set of unprecedented scale and species diversity that covers 265,386 tracking days from 2000 to 2009. Here we report migration pathways, link ocean features to multispecies hotspots and illustrate niche partitioning within and among congener guilds. Our results indicate that the California Current large marine ecosystem and the North Pacific transition zone attract and retain a diverse assemblage of marine vertebrates. Within the California Current large marine ecosystem, several predator guilds seasonally undertake north-south migrations that may be driven by oceanic processes, species-specific thermal tolerances and shifts in prey distributions. We identify critical habitats across multinational boundaries and show that top predators exploit their environment in predictable ways, providing the foundation for spatial management of large marine ecosystems.     

Why large-scale climate indices seem to predict ecological processes better than local weather

Large-scale climatic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are associated with population dynamics, variation in demographic rates and values of phenotypic traits in many species. Paradoxically, these large-scale indices can seem to be better predictors of ecological processes than local climate. Using detailed data from a population of Soay sheep, we show that high rainfall, high winds or low temperatures at any time during a 3-month period can cause mortality either immediately or lagged by a few days. Most measures of local climate used by ecologists fail to capture such complex associations between weather and ecological process, and this may help to explain why large-scale, seasonal indices of climate spanning several months can outperform local climatic factors. Furthermore, we show why an understanding of the mechanism by which climate influences population ecology is important. Through simulation we demonstrate that the timing of bad weather within a period of mortality can have an important modifying influence on intraspecific competition for food, revealing an interaction between climate and density dependence that the use of large-scale climatic indices or inappropriate local weather variables might obscure.     

Ecological opportunity and sexual selection together predict adaptive radiation

A fundamental challenge to our understanding of biodiversity is to explain why some groups of species undergo adaptive radiations, diversifying extensively into many and varied species, whereas others do not. Both extrinsic environmental factors (for example, resource availability, climate) and intrinsic lineage-specific traits (for example, behavioural or morphological traits, genetic architecture) influence diversification, but few studies have addressed how such factors interact. Radiations of cichlid fishes in the African Great Lakes provide some of the most dramatic cases of species diversification. However, most cichlid lineages in African lakes have not undergone adaptive radiations. Here we compile data on cichlid colonization and diversification in 46 African lakes, along with lake environmental features and information about the traits of colonizing cichlid lineages, to investigate why adaptive radiation does and does not occur. We find that extrinsic environmental factors related to ecological opportunity and intrinsic lineage-specific traits related to sexual selection both strongly influence whether cichlids radiate. Cichlids are more likely to radiate in deep lakes, in regions with more incident solar radiation and in lakes where there has been more time for diversification. Weak or negative associations between diversification and lake surface area indicate that cichlid speciation is not constrained by area, in contrast to diversification in many terrestrial taxa. Among the suite of intrinsic traits that we investigate, sexual dichromatism, a surrogate for the intensity of sexual selection, is consistently positively associated with diversification. Thus, for cichlids, it is the coincidence between ecological opportunity and sexual selection that best predicts whether adaptive radiation will occur. These findings suggest that adaptive radiation is predictable, but only when species traits and environmental factors are jointly considered.     

长江中下游四省森林植物多样性初步分析

分析了长江中下游湘、赣、鄂、皖四省的森林植物多样性现状和潜在危机。统计结果表明,该区植物（包括种子植物、蕨类植物和苔藓植物）物种多样性水平估计为１万种,具古老性、特有性、稀有性和复杂性等特点。该区生物多样性现状是不容乐观的,物种、基因和生态系统诸层次的多样性均受不同程度的破坏,它对经济持续发展、环境保护等方面有潜在的负面影响。提出了该区生物多样性保护的若干对策。     

外来种入侵与生态安全

世界的生物多样性正受到严重威胁，其中，生物入侵已成为威胁生物多样性的重要因素之一，近年来，外来种入侵对我国生物多样性的危害日益加剧，已经危及到我国的生态安全，为此从介绍与外来种入侵有关的概念入手，分析了外来种入侵的途径，生物入侵对我国生态环境、生物多样性（包括物种多样性和遗传多样性）、经济及社会的严重影响，提出在外来种入侵的防治和管理方面，应根据我国国情和目前生物入侵的实际状况，加强国家能力、研究能力和监管能力建设，确保我国的生态安全。     

气候变化对陆地生物多样性影响研究的若干进展

气候变化对生物多样性影响的研究日益受到重视。文章总结了有关气候变化对基因多样性、物种多样性和生态系统多样性影响研究的趋势，并对存在的问题进行了讨论。目前，气候变化对生物多样性影响的研究总体上还不深入，研究需要加强。     

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.     

人工林生态系统生物多样性与生产力的关系

生物多样性与生产力之间的关系是生态学界近来争论的热点之一。笔者简要介绍了现有关于生物多样性影响生态系统功能有关抽样效应、生态位互补、保险效应、冗余机制、基因-环境互作、边际效应及中性理论等作用机制,以及现有的关于生产力和多样性之间关系的主要观点。在此基础上,阐述了人工林生物多样性的研究现状和人工林生物多样性与生态功能的关系,重点讨论了造林树种选择、造林地清理、造林密度、间伐、林农复合经营、轮伐期长短等经营措施对人工林生物多样性的影响。人工林生物多样性的高低,很大程度上取决于林分结构的构建和调控,任何左右林分结构的经营措施都有可能对人工林生物多样性产生影响。因此,从生物多样性维护及生态功能发挥的角度看,决定应该营造什么样的人工林以及该采取怎样的经营措施是人工林可持续经营和长期立地生产力维持的关键。     

CONSERVATION OF BIODIVERSITIY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA

生物多样性是生命系统的基本特征,也是生物有机体及其与环境之间复合而成的生态系统和各种有关生态过程的总和.生物多样性主要包括三个层次基因多样性、物种多样性，生态系统多样性.中国的幅员辽阔,生境复杂,气候多变,历史悠久,拥有丰富的植物、动物和微生物种类及不同的生态系统类型.多年来,我国采取了一系列措施和行动,旨在保护生物多样性,促进国家经济、人类社会和自然生态系统的持续发展.     

Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate

The hypothesis that animal population dynamics may be synchronized by climate is highly relevant in the context of climate change because it suggests that several populations might respond simultaneously to climatic trends if their dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation. The dynamics of many species throughout the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by a single large-scale climate system, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exerts highly correlated regional effects on local weather. But efforts to attribute synchronous fluctuations of contiguous populations to large-scale climate are confounded by the synchronizing influences of dispersal or trophic interactions. Here we report that the dynamics of caribou and musk oxen on opposite coasts of Greenland show spatial synchrony among populations of both species that correlates with the NAO index. Our analysis shows that the NAO has an influence in the high degree of cross-species synchrony between pairs of caribou and musk oxen populations separated by a minimum of 1,000 km of inland ice. The vast distances, and complete physical and ecological separation of these species, rule out spatial coupling by dispersal or interaction. These results indicate that animal populations of different species may respond synchronously to global climate change over large regions.     

Biodiversity and ecosystem stability in a decade-long grassland experiment

Human-driven ecosystem simplification has highlighted questions about how the number of species in an ecosystem influences its functioning. Although biodiversity is now known to affect ecosystem productivity, its effects on stability are debated. Here we present a long-term experimental field test of the diversity-stability hypothesis. During a decade of data collection in an experiment that directly controlled the number of perennial prairie species, growing-season climate varied considerably, causing year-to-year variation in abundances of plant species and in ecosystem productivity. We found that greater numbers of plant species led to greater temporal stability of ecosystem annual aboveground plant production. In particular, the decadal temporal stability of the ecosystem, whether measured with intervals of two, five or ten years, was significantly greater at higher plant diversity and tended to increase as plots matured. Ecosystem stability was also positively dependent on root mass, which is a measure of perenniating biomass. Temporal stability of the ecosystem increased with diversity, despite a lower temporal stability of individual species, because of both portfolio (statistical averaging) and overyielding effects. However, we found no evidence of a covariance effect. Our results indicate that the reliable, efficient and sustainable supply of some foods (for example, livestock fodder), biofuels and ecosystem services can be enhanced by the use of biodiversity.     

Species-specific responses of Late Quaternary megafauna to climate and humans

Despite decades of research, the roles of climate and humans in driving the dramatic extinctions of large-bodied mammals during the Late Quaternary period remain contentious. Here we use ancient DNA, species distribution models and the human fossil record to elucidate how climate and humans shaped the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth, wild horse, reindeer, bison and musk ox. We show that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years. However, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment. Although climate change alone can explain the extinction of some species, such as Eurasian musk ox and woolly rhinoceros, a combination of climatic and anthropogenic effects appears to be responsible for the extinction of others, including Eurasian steppe bison and wild horse. We find no genetic signature or any distinctive range dynamics distinguishing extinct from surviving species, emphasizing the challenges associated with predicting future responses of extant mammals to climate and human-mediated habitat change.