A climatologically significant aerosol longwave indirect effect in the Arctic

The warming of Arctic climate and decreases in sea ice thickness and extent observed over recent decades are believed to result from increased direct greenhouse gas forcing, changes in atmospheric dynamics having anthropogenic origin, and important positive reinforcements including ice-albedo and cloud-radiation feedbacks. The importance of cloud-radiation interactions is being investigated through advanced instrumentation deployed in the high Arctic since 1997 (refs 7, 8). These studies have established that clouds, via the dominance of longwave radiation, exert a net warming on the Arctic climate system throughout most of the year, except briefly during the summer. The Arctic region also experiences significant periodic influxes of anthropogenic aerosols, which originate from the industrial regions in lower latitudes. Here we use multisensor radiometric data to show that enhanced aerosol concentrations alter the microphysical properties of Arctic clouds, in a process known as the 'first indirect' effect. Under frequently occurring cloud types we find that this leads to an increase of an average 3.4 watts per square metre in the surface longwave fluxes. This is comparable to a warming effect from established greenhouse gases and implies that the observed longwave enhancement is climatologically significant.     

Increases in greenhouse forcing inferred from the outgoing longwave radiation spectra of the Earth in 1970 and 1997

The evolution of the Earth's climate has been extensively studied, and a strong link between increases in surface temperatures and greenhouse gases has been established. But this relationship is complicated by several feedback processes-most importantly the hydrological cycle-that are not well understood. Changes in the Earth's greenhouse effect can be detected from variations in the spectrum of outgoing longwave radiation, which is a measure of how the Earth cools to space and carries the imprint of the gases that are responsible for the greenhouse effect. Here we analyse the difference between the spectra of the outgoing longwave radiation of the Earth as measured by orbiting spacecraft in 1970 and 1997. We find differences in the spectra that point to long-term changes in atmospheric CH4, CO2 and O3 as well as CFC-11 and CFC-12. Our results provide direct experimental evidence for a significant increase in the Earth's greenhouse effect that is consistent with concerns over radiative forcing of climate.     

The impact of humidity above stratiform clouds on indirect aerosol climate forcing

Some of the global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases is offset by increased reflection of solar radiation by clouds with smaller droplets that form in air polluted with aerosol particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei. The resulting cooling tendency, termed the indirect aerosol forcing, is thought to be comparable in magnitude to the forcing by anthropogenic CO2, but it is difficult to estimate because the physical processes that determine global aerosol and cloud populations are poorly understood. Smaller cloud droplets not only reflect sunlight more effectively, but also inhibit precipitation, which is expected to result in increased cloud water. Such an increase in cloud water would result in even more reflective clouds, further increasing the indirect forcing. Marine boundary-layer clouds polluted by aerosol particles, however, are not generally observed to hold more water. Here we simulate stratocumulus clouds with a fluid dynamics model that includes detailed treatments of cloud microphysics and radiative transfer. Our simulations show that the response of cloud water to suppression of precipitation from increased droplet concentrations is determined by a competition between moistening from decreased surface precipitation and drying from increased entrainment of overlying air. Only when the overlying air is humid or droplet concentrations are very low does sufficient precipitation reach the surface to allow cloud water to increase with droplet concentrations. Otherwise, the response of cloud water to aerosol-induced suppression of precipitation is dominated by enhanced entrainment of overlying dry air. In this scenario, cloud water is reduced as droplet concentrations increase, which diminishes the indirect climate forcing.     

Observational evidence of a change in radiative forcing due to the indirect aerosol effect

Anthropogenic aerosols enhance cloud reflectivity by increasing the number concentration of cloud droplets, leading to a cooling effect on climate known as the indirect aerosol effect. Observational support for this effect is based mainly on evidence that aerosol number concentrations are connected with droplet concentrations, but it has been difficult to determine the impact of these indirect effects on radiative forcing. Here we provide observational evidence for a substantial alteration of radiative fluxes due to the indirect aerosol effect. We examine the effect of aerosols on cloud optical properties using measurements of aerosol and cloud properties at two North American sites that span polluted and clean conditions-a continental site in Oklahoma with high aerosol concentrations, and an Arctic site in Alaska with low aerosol concentrations. We determine the cloud optical depth required to fit the observed shortwave downward surface radiation. We then use a cloud parcel model to simulate the cloud optical depth from observed aerosol properties due to the indirect aerosol effect. From the good agreement between the simulated indirect aerosol effect and observed surface radiation, we conclude that the indirect aerosol effect has a significant influence on radiative fluxes.     

中国地区云与辐射对气候的影响

本文通过十年气象卫星系列观测资料和地面气象观观资料,分析云与辐射的关系。由此得出中国不同地区,不同季节的云量与地球行星反射率,与地气系统长波射出辐射的关系和经验公式。由此估算出地气系统净辐射随云量的变化率,以及云的反射率效应和温室效应之比。本文综合讨论地球一大气系统辐射过程。云对辐射平衡及气候的影响。     

Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate

Radiative effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to cause climate changes, in particular an intensification of the global water cycle with a consequent increase in flood risk. But the detection of anthropogenically forced changes in flooding is difficult because of the substantial natural variability; the dependence of streamflow trends on flow regime further complicates the issue. Here we investigate the changes in risk of great floods--that is, floods with discharges exceeding 100-year levels from basins larger than 200,000 km(2)--using both streamflow measurements and numerical simulations of the anthropogenic climate change associated with greenhouse gases and direct radiative effects of sulphate aerosols. We find that the frequency of great floods increased substantially during the twentieth century. The recent emergence of a statistically significant positive trend in risk of great floods is consistent with results from the climate model, and the model suggests that the trend will continue.     

Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate

The most important anthropogenic influences on climate are the emission of greenhouse gases and changes in land use, such as urbanization and agriculture. But it has been difficult to separate these two influences because both tend to increase the daily mean surface temperature. The impact of urbanization has been estimated by comparing observations in cities with those in surrounding rural areas, but the results differ significantly depending on whether population data or satellite measurements of night light are used to classify urban and rural areas. Here we use the difference between trends in observed surface temperatures in the continental United States and the corresponding trends in a reconstruction of surface temperatures determined from a reanalysis of global weather over the past 50 years, which is insensitive to surface observations, to estimate the impact of land-use changes on surface warming. Our results suggest that half of the observed decrease in diurnal temperature range is due to urban and other land-use changes. Moreover, our estimate of 0.27 degrees C mean surface warming per century due to land-use changes is at least twice as high as previous estimates based on urbanization alone.     

The importance of the diurnal and annual cycle of air traffic for contrail radiative forcing

Air traffic condensation trails, or contrails, are believed to have a net atmospheric warming effect, although one that is currently small compared to that induced by other sources of human emissions. However, the comparably large growth rate of air traffic requires an improved understanding of the resulting impact of aircraft radiative forcing on climate. Contrails have an effect on the Earth's energy balance similar to that of high thin ice clouds. Their trapping of outgoing longwave radiation emitted by the Earth and atmosphere (positive radiative forcing) is partly compensated by their reflection of incoming solar radiation (negative radiative forcing). On average, the longwave effect dominates and the net contrail radiative forcing is believed to be positive. Over daily and annual timescales, varying levels of air traffic, meteorological conditions, and solar insolation influence the net forcing effect of contrails. Here we determine the factors most important for contrail climate forcing using a sophisticated radiative transfer model for a site in southeast England, located in the entrance to the North Atlantic flight corridor. We find that night-time flights during winter (December to February) are responsible for most of the contrail radiative forcing. Night flights account for only 25 per cent of daily air traffic, but contribute 60 to 80 per cent of the contrail forcing. Further, winter flights account for only 22 per cent of annual air traffic, but contribute half of the annual mean forcing. These results suggest that flight rescheduling could help to minimize the climate impact of aviation.     

Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence

Water vapour is the most important contributor to the natural greenhouse effect, and the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is expected to increase under conditions of greenhouse-gas-induced warming, leading to a significant feedback on anthropogenic climate change. Theoretical and modelling studies predict that relative humidity will remain approximately constant at the global scale as the climate warms, leading to an increase in specific humidity. Although significant increases in surface specific humidity have been identified in several regions, and on the global scale in non-homogenized data, it has not been shown whether these changes are due to natural or human influences on climate. Here we use a new quality-controlled and homogenized gridded observational data set of surface humidity, with output from a coupled climate model, to identify and explore the causes of changes in surface specific humidity over the late twentieth century. We identify a significant global-scale increase in surface specific humidity that is attributable mainly to human influence. Specific humidity is found to have increased in response to rising temperatures, with relative humidity remaining approximately constant. These changes may have important implications, because atmospheric humidity is a key variable in determining the geographical distribution and maximum intensity of precipitation, the potential maximum intensity of tropical cyclones, and human heat stress, and has important effects on the biosphere and surface hydrology.     

东亚地区人为硫酸盐气溶胶辐射气候效应不同模拟方法的对比

 利用区域气候模式RegCM2与大气化学模式连接的模拟系统,研究了中国地区人为排放生成的硫酸盐气溶胶分布及其辐射气候效应,并与全球模式的结果进行了比较,同时对比了硫酸盐气溶胶辐射气候效应的在线、离线模拟方法所得结果差异的细致情况.通过以上工作表明:区域气候和大气化学耦合模式系统能在比大气环流模式更精细的尺度上获得硫酸盐分布规律和辐射气候效应;并且区域气候模式与大气化学模式的在线与离线连接方法得到的硫酸盐柱含量、有反馈和无反馈大气顶直接辐射强迫和地表温度响应在较小区域平均的尺度上存在较显著的差异,并且在全区域平均尺度上也不能被忽略;通过对气候响应的进一步分析发现:模拟结果显示了从硫酸盐含量到辐射强迫和地表温度响应逐渐加大的不确定性.     

Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide

In addition to influencing climatic conditions directly through radiative forcing, increasing carbon dioxide concentration influences the climate system through its effects on plant physiology. Plant stomata generally open less widely under increased carbon dioxide concentration, which reduces transpiration and thus leaves more water at the land surface. This driver of change in the climate system, which we term 'physiological forcing', has been detected in observational records of increasing average continental runoff over the twentieth century. Here we use an ensemble of experiments with a global climate model that includes a vegetation component to assess the contribution of physiological forcing to future changes in continental runoff, in the context of uncertainties in future precipitation. We find that the physiological effect of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations on plant transpiration increases simulated global mean runoff by 6 per cent relative to pre-industrial levels; an increase that is comparable to that simulated in response to radiatively forced climate change (11 +/- 6 per cent). Assessments of the effect of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations on the hydrological cycle that only consider radiative forcing will therefore tend to underestimate future increases in runoff and overestimate decreases. This suggests that freshwater resources may be less limited than previously assumed under scenarios of future global warming, although there is still an increased risk of drought. Moreover, our results highlight that the practice of assessing the climate-forcing potential of all greenhouse gases in terms of their radiative forcing potential relative to carbon dioxide does not accurately reflect the relative effects of different greenhouse gases on freshwater resources.     

High temperatures in the Late Cretaceous Arctic Ocean

To understand the climate dynamics of the warm, equable greenhouse world of the Late Cretaceous period, it is important to determine polar palaeotemperatures. The early palaeoceanographic history of the Arctic Ocean has, however, remained largely unknown, because the sea floor and underlying deposits are usually inaccessible beneath a cover of floating ice. A shallow piston core taken from a drifting ice island in 1970 fortuitously retrieved unconsolidated Upper Cretaceous organic-rich sediment from Alpha ridge, a submarine elevated feature of probable oceanic origin. A lack of carbonate in the sediments from this core has prevented the use of traditional oxygen-isotope palaeothermometry. Here we determine Arctic palaeotemperatures from these Upper Cretaceous deposits using TEX86, a new palaeothermometer that is based on the composition of membrane lipids derived from a ubiquitous component of marine plankton, Crenarchaeota. From these analyses we infer an average sea surface temperature of approximately 15 degrees C for the Arctic Ocean about 70 million years ago. This calibration point implies an Equator-to-pole gradient in sea surface temperatures of approximately 15 degrees C during this interval and, by extrapolation, we suggest that polar waters were generally warmer than 20 degrees C during the middle Cretaceous (approximately 90 million years ago).     

Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure

Greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulphate aerosols--the main human influences on climate--have been shown to have had a detectable effect on surface air temperature, the temperature of the free troposphere and stratosphere and ocean temperature. Nevertheless, the question remains as to whether human influence is detectable in any variable other than temperature. Here we detect an influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in observations of winter sea-level pressure (December to February), using combined simulations from four climate models. We find increases in sea-level pressure over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, southern Europe and North Africa, and decreases in the polar regions and the North Pacific Ocean, in response to human influence. Our analysis also indicates that the climate models substantially underestimate the magnitude of the sea-level pressure response. This discrepancy suggests that the upward trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (corresponding to strengthened westerlies in the North Atlantic region), as simulated in a number of global warming scenarios, may be too small, leading to an underestimation of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.     

Case study of longwave contribution to dust radiative effects over East Asia

In order to evaluate the impacts of LW contribution to aerosol radiative effects over East Asia,a dust longwave radiative parameterization scheme is integrated into the online mesoscale dust forecasting model GRAPES_CUACE/dust.A case modeling study shows that about half at surface and one third at TOA of the dust negative shortwave radiative forcing are cancelled by its positive longwave forcing over the dust affected area.In the dust layer,longwave radiation emitting by dust cools the atmosphere,which counteracts about 17%of shortwave heating of atmosphere during daytime and results in cooling of atmosphere simply during nighttime.At the same time,the atmosphere beyond the dust layer is warmed because of absorbing the LW radiation emitted by dust layer.Dust longwave contribution exerts more evident impact on the air temperature in lower atmosphere and surface.The surface air temperature cooling rate resulting from the dust solar radiation is cancelled about 40%by dust longwave warming at daytime.At nighttime,dust longwave contribution warms land and sea surface.The online calculation of dust LW radiation reduces about 15%relative errors of predicted AOD based on the dust model with only SW radiative feedback.This case study result suggests that dust longwave contribution has important impacts on the earth-atmosphere energy process,especially on the surface and in the lower atmosphere and should not be neglected in the study of dust radiation effects.     

Mitigation of greenhouse gases released from mining activities: A review

Climate changes that occur as a result of global warming caused by increasing amounts of greenhouse gases(GHGs)released into the atmosphere are an alarming issue.Controlling greenhouse gas emissions is critically important for the current and future status of mining activities.The mining industry is one of the significant contributors of greenhouse gases.In essence,anthropogenic greenhouse gases are emitted directly during the actual mining and indirectly released by the energy-intensive activities associated with mining equipment,ore transport,and the processing industry.Therefore,we reviewed both direct and indirect GHG emissions to analyze how mining contributes to climate change.In addition,we showed how climate change impacts mineral production.This assessment was performed using a GHG inventory model for the gases released from mines undergoing different product life cycles.We also elucidate the key issues and various research outcomes to demonstrate how the mining industry and policymakers can mitigate GHG emission from the mining sector.The review concludes with an overview of GHG release reduction and mitigation strategies.     

Mitigation of greenhouse gases released from mining activities: A review

Climate changes that occur as a result of global warming caused by increasing amounts of greenhouse gases(GHGs) released into the atmosphere are an alarming issue.Controlling greenhouse gas emissions is critically important for the current and future status of mining activities.The mining industry is one of the significant contributors of greenhouse gases.In essence, anthropogenic greenhouse gases are emitted directly during the actual mining and indirectly released by the energy-intensive activities associated with mining equipment, ore transport,and the processing industry.Therefore, we reviewed both direct and indirect GHG emissions to analyze how mining contributes to climate change.In addition, we showed how climate change impacts mineral production.This assessment was performed using a GHG inventory model for the gases released from mines undergoing different product life cycles.We also elucidate the key issues and various research outcomes to demonstrate how the mining industry and policymakers can mitigate GHG emission from the mining sector.The review concludes with an overview of GHG release reduction and mitigation strategies.     

Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change

Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.     

A lower limit for atmospheric carbon dioxide levels 3.2 billion years ago

The quantification of greenhouse gases present in the Archaean atmosphere is critical for understanding the evolution of atmospheric oxygen, surface temperatures and the conditions for life on early Earth. For instance, it has been argued that small changes in the balance between two potential greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane, may have dictated the feedback cycle involving organic haze production and global cooling. Climate models have focused on carbon dioxide as the greenhouse gas responsible for maintaining above-freezing surface temperatures during a time of low solar luminosity. However, the analysis of 2.75-billion-year (Gyr)-old palaeosols--soil samples preserved in the geologic record--have recently provided an upper constraint on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels well below that required in most climate models to prevent the Earth's surface from freezing. This finding prompted many to look towards methane as an additional greenhouse gas to satisfy climate models. Here we use model equilibrium reactions for weathering rinds on 3.2-Gyr-old river gravels to show that the presence of iron-rich carbonate relative to common clay minerals requires a minimum partial pressure of carbon dioxide several times higher than present-day values. Unless actual carbon dioxide levels were considerably greater than this, climate models predict that additional greenhouse gases would still need to have a role in maintaining above-freezing surface temperatures.     

Large differences in tropical aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere and Earth's surface

The effect of radiative forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate predictions. Direct observations of the forcing are therefore needed, particularly for the poorly understood tropical aerosols. Here we present an observational method for quantifying aerosol forcing to within +/-5 per cent. We use calibrated satellite radiation measurements and five independent surface radiometers to quantify the aerosol forcing simultaneously at the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere over the tropical northern Indian Ocean. In winter, this region is covered by anthropogenic aerosols of sulphate, nitrate, organics, soot and fly ash from the south Asian continent. Accordingly, mean clear-sky solar radiative heating for the winters of 1998 and 1999 decreased at the ocean surface by 12 to 30 Wm(-2), but only by 4 to 10 Wm(-2) at the top of the atmosphere. This threefold difference (due largely to solar absorption by soot) and the large magnitude of the observed surface forcing both imply that tropical aerosols might slow down the hydrological cycle.     

干、湿大气环流模式中地表增温的经向分布及其机制

使用耦合了平板海洋的三维大气环流模式, 探究理想条件下极地增温放大现象的产生机制。实验中关闭海冰和云的辐射效应, 固定地表反照率, 并将海洋经向热量输送设置为零。通过控制地表蒸发的有无, 模拟湿大气和干大气两种情形。模拟结果显示, CO₂浓度加倍后, 湿大气环流模式中存在极地增温放大的现象, 而干大气环流模式中不存在这种现象。在干大气环流模式中, 地表增温幅度基本上不随纬度变化, 即均匀增温。湿大气环流模式中, CO₂浓度加倍导致的直接辐射强迫和水汽反馈导致的辐射效应都是热带比极地更强, 唯一能够解释湿大气中极地增温放大原因的是从赤道向极地的大气能量传输增强。在干大气环流模式中, 从赤道向极地的热量输送及其变化比湿大气弱很多, 因此无法支持极地增温放大现象。干大气中的均匀增温是CO₂的直接辐射强迫和普朗克效应相互竞争的结果。研究结果表明, 与水汽相关的经向热量输送是地球极地增温放大的关键因素, 而在基本上没有水汽的火星上, 可能不会出现极地增温放大现象。