Climate (communication arising): impact of land-use change on climate

Urbanization and other changes in land use have an impact on surface-air temperatures. Kalnay and Cai report that the observed surface-temperature trend in part of the United States exceeds the trend in the NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalysis (NNR) and conclude that changes in land use account for the difference (0.035 degrees C per decade according to their corrected values). Although land-use change may explain some of this discrepancy, the authors do not quantify the impact of the many changes in observational practice that occurred during the analysis period. Our findings indicate that these 'non-climatic' changes have a systematic effect that overwhelms the reported difference in trends and therefore calls Kalnay and Cai's central conclusion into question.     

Climatology (communication arising): rural land-use change and climate

Kalnay and Cai claim that urbanization and land-use change have a major effect on the climate in the United States. They used surface temperatures obtained from NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalyses (NNR) and their difference compared with observed station surface temperatures as the basis for their conclusions, on the grounds that the NNR did not include these anthropogenic effects. However, we note that the NNR also overlooked other factors, such as known changes in clouds and in surface moisture, which are more likely to explain Kalnay and Cai's findings. Although urban heat-island effects are real in cities, direct estimates of the effects of rural land-use change indicate a cooling rather than a warming influence that is due to a greater reflection of sunlight.     

Impact of regional climate change on human health

The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.     

Additive threats from pathogens, climate and land-use change for global amphibian diversity

Amphibian population declines far exceed those of other vertebrate groups, with 30% of all species listed as threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. The causes of these declines are a matter of continued research, but probably include climate change, land-use change and spread of the pathogenic fungal disease chytridiomycosis. Here we assess the spatial distribution and interactions of these primary threats in relation to the global distribution of amphibian species. We show that the greatest proportions of species negatively affected by climate change are projected to be found in Africa, parts of northern South America and the Andes. Regions with the highest projected impact of land-use and climate change coincide, but there is little spatial overlap with regions highly threatened by the fungal disease. Overall, the areas harbouring the richest amphibian faunas are disproportionately more affected by one or multiple threat factors than areas with low richness. Amphibian declines are likely to accelerate in the twenty-first century, because multiple drivers of extinction could jeopardize their populations more than previous, mono-causal, assessments have suggested.     

Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch

Phenology, the study of annually recurring life cycle events such as the timing of migrations and flowering, can provide particularly sensitive indicators of climate change. Changes in phenology may be important to ecosystem function because the level of response to climate change may vary across functional groups and multiple trophic levels. The decoupling of phenological relationships will have important ramifications for trophic interactions, altering food-web structures and leading to eventual ecosystem-level changes. Temperate marine environments may be particularly vulnerable to these changes because the recruitment success of higher trophic levels is highly dependent on synchronization with pulsed planktonic production. Using long-term data of 66 plankton taxa during the period from 1958 to 2002, we investigated whether climate warming signals are emergent across all trophic levels and functional groups within an ecological community. Here we show that not only is the marine pelagic community responding to climate changes, but also that the level of response differs throughout the community and the seasonal cycle, leading to a mismatch between trophic levels and functional groups.     

Estimation of urbanization bias in observed surface temperature change in China from 1980 to 2009 using satellite land-use data

Since the 1980s,China has undergone rapid urbanization.Meanwhile,the climate has been warming substantially.In this paper,the urbanization effect on observed temperatures from 1980 to 2009 in China is estimated,based on analysis of urban land use from satellite observation.Urban land-use expansion(U) during 1980-2005 is applied as an urbanization index.According to these U values,stations are divided into three categories:(C1) intense urbanization around the stations;(C2) moderate urbanization around the stations;and(C3) minimal urbanization around the stations.Most C1 stations are in municipalities or provincial capitals,while C2 stations tend to be in prefecture-level cities.C3 stations are mostly in counties.The urban heat island(UHI) effect can be estimated if the urban effect on C3 is negligible.The warming of C1 or C2 relative to that of C3 represents their urbanization effects,assuming that the same larger-scale natural warming has affected each category.For C1,the local urbanization effect is 0.258°C/10 a over 1980-2009,accounting for 41% of the total warming;the trend at C2 is 0.099°C/10 a,or 21%.For all China,the urbanization effect is 0.09°C/10a,accounting for 20% of the total national warming.Winter urban warming is greater than in summer.The assumption of negligible urbanization effect on C3 is debatable,and so the true urbanization effect may equal or slightly exceed estimates.Further,the U index may have some uncertainties,for it is only one of the urbanization indices.However,it provides a new and direct estimation of environmental change,in contrast to indirect indices.     

Impact of climate change on streamflow in the Xitiaoxi catchment, Taihu Basin

The impact of climate change on streamflow in the Xitiaoxi catchment is assessed by using VIC (variable infiltration capacity) model coupled with PRECIS (providing regional climate for impacts studies). Results show that the VIC model is adaptable for the study area. Both deterministic coefficient and Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency coefficient are greater than 0.75, with a good agreement between observed and simulated discharge. The runoff will increase in the future, especially during flood seasons. The magnitude of floods in the future (2021–2050) under A2 and B2 scenarios will be greater than that during the baseline period (1961–1990), but it may not exceed that during the 1990s.     

Extinction and climate change

Arising from F. He & S. P. Hubbell 473, 368-371 (2011). Statistical relationships between habitat area and the number of species observed (species-area relationships, SARs) are sometimes used to assess extinction risks following habitat destruction or loss of climatic suitability. He and Hubbell argue that the numbers of species confined to-rather than observed in-different areas (endemics-area relationships, EARs) should be used instead of SARs, and that SAR-based extinction estimates in the literature are too high. We suggest that He and Hubbell's SAR estimates are biased, that the empirical data they use are not appropriate to calculate extinction risks, and that their statements about extinction risks from climate change do not take into account non-SAR-based estimates or recent observations. Species have already responded to climate change in a manner consistent with high future extinction risks.     

Effects of climate change on biodiversity

1 Rise of studies on climate change＇s effects on biodiversity
Until the 1980s, climate change and biodiversity were studied as two independent disciplines for more than a century. In 1992, the Ecological Society of America＇s annual report named climate change, biodiversity, and the sustainable ecological system as the three major global environmental issues of the twenty-first century [1].     

基于变异系数的我国城市化地域差异演变研究

利用我国26个省会城市和4个直辖市的市辖区1998～2007年的非农人口和建成区面积统计数据,采用增长率和变异系数等指标对中国的城市化水平格局及地域差异变化进行研究.结果表明:研究期内我国东部城市化水平差异一直明显高于中、西部地区,但东中西部的差异有所缩小;城市化速率呈现明显的地域差异,2003年之前东部城市化速度最快...     

GPU-CA model for large-scale land-use change simulation

Land-use change simulation for large-scale regions(i.e.provincial regions or countries) is very useful for many global studies.Such simulation,however,is affected by computational capability of general computers.This paper proposes a method to implement cellular automata(CA) for land use change simulation based on graphics processing units(GPUs).This method can be applied to large-scale land-use change simulations by combining the latest GPU high-performance computing technology and CA.We carried out the experiments by simulating land-use change processes at a provincial scale.This involves a lot of sophisticated techniques,such as model mapping,and computational procedure of GPU-CA model.This proposed model has been validated by land-use change simulation in Guangdong Province,China.The comparison indicates that the GPU-CA model is faster than traditional CA by 30 times.Such improvement is crucial for land-use change simulations in provincial regions and countries.The outputs of the simulation can be further used to provide information to other global change models.     

Emperor penguins and climate change

Variations in ocean-atmosphere coupling over time in the Southern Ocean have dominant effects on sea-ice extent and ecosystem structure, but the ultimate consequences of such environmental changes for large marine predators cannot be accurately predicted because of the absence of long-term data series on key demographic parameters. Here, we use the longest time series available on demographic parameters of an Antarctic large predator breeding on fast ice and relying on food resources from the Southern Ocean. We show that over the past 50 years, the population of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) in Terre Adélie has declined by 50% because of a decrease in adult survival during the late 1970s. At this time there was a prolonged abnormally warm period with reduced sea-ice extent. Mortality rates increased when warm sea-surface temperatures occurred in the foraging area and when annual sea-ice extent was reduced, and were higher for males than for females. In contrast with survival, emperor penguins hatched fewer eggs when winter sea-ice was extended. These results indicate strong and contrasting effects of large-scale oceanographic processes and sea-ice extent on the demography of emperor penguins, and their potential high susceptibility to climate change.     

气候变化影响下的流域水循环：回顾与展望?

随着全球气候变化的影响日益加剧,气候变化对流域水循环影响的研究成为普遍关注的焦点.数理统计和水文模拟两大手段的运用贯穿于过去30余年的研究当中,本文就其中所涉及的水文气象要素趋势分析、大气环流模式(GCMs)评估、降尺度技术及其选择、水文模型及其选择、不确定性分析5大内容的研究成果进行回顾与展望,以拉萨河流域为例综合运用前述技术分析区域气候变化特征及其对流域径流的影响.结果表明,在未来经济社会发展与气候变化情景下,流域径流时空分布不均匀性更加显著,具体表现为集中性增强,这给区域防洪抗旱与水资源配置等都带来了巨大挑战.通过系统阐述如何开展气候变化对流域水循环的影响研究及所包含的关键问题,可为后续相关研究和区域水资源管理提供科学依据与决策支撑.     

Extracting change information of land-use and soil-erosion based on RS & GIS technology

Rapid land-use change has taken place in many arid regions of China such as Yulin prefecture over the last decade due to rehabilitation measures. Land-use change and soil erosion dynamics were investigated by the combined use of remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS). The objectives were to determine land-use transition rates and soil erosion change in Yulin prefecture over 15 years from 1986 to 2000. Significant changes in land-use and soil erosion occurred in the area over the study period. The results show the significant decrease in barren land mainly due to conversion to grassland. Agricultural land increased associated with conversions from grassland and barren land. The area of water erosion and wind erosion declined. The study demonstrates that the integration of satellite remote sensing and GIS is an effective approach for analyzing the direction, rate, and spatial pattern of land-use and soil erosion change.     

Extracting change information of land-use and soil-erosion based on RS & GIS technology

Rapid land-use change has taken place in many arid regions of China such as Yulin prefecture over the last decade due to rehabilitation measures. Land-use change and soil erosion dynamics were investigated by the combined use of remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS). The objectives were to determine land-use transition rates and soil erosion change in Yulin prefecture over 15 years from 1986 to 2000. Significant changes in land-use and soil erosion occurred in the area over the study period. The results show the significant decrease in barren land mainly due to conversion to grassland. Agricultural land increased associated with conversions from grassland and barren land. The area of water erosion and wind erosion declined. The study demonstrates that the integration of satellite remote sensing and GIS is an effective approach for analyzing the direction, rate, and spatial pattern of land-use and soil erosion change.     

Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles

The assessment of uncertainties in global warming projections is often based on expert judgement, because a number of key variables in climate change are poorly quantified. In particular, the sensitivity of climate to changing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the radiative forcing effects by aerosols are not well constrained, leading to large uncertainties in global warming simulations. Here we present a Monte Carlo approach to produce probabilistic climate projections, using a climate model of reduced complexity. The uncertainties in the input parameters and in the model itself are taken into account, and past observations of oceanic and atmospheric warming are used to constrain the range of realistic model responses. We obtain a probability density function for the present-day total radiative forcing, giving 1.4 to 2.4 W m-2 for the 5-95 per cent confidence range, narrowing the global-mean indirect aerosol effect to the range of 0 to -1.2 W m-2. Ensemble simulations for two illustrative emission scenarios suggest a 40 per cent probability that global-mean surface temperature increase will exceed the range predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but only a 5 per cent probability that warming will fall below that range.