区域海洋管理的理论与实践研究进展

作为一种积极的管理跨行政区域的海洋资源与环境问题的新模式,区域海洋管理在学术界和管理界得到越来越广泛的重视。这种管理模式被认为是将来海洋政策的最佳选择。包括中国在内的很多临海国家开始了区域海洋管理的实践。本文对区域海洋管理的理论和框架进行了系统探讨,并对美国、欧盟等国家或国际组织的区域海洋管理的实践进行了分析,对比我国的区域海洋管理的框架模式及进展,提出了在我国实施区域海洋管理的建议。     

热带印度洋偶极子区域海表面温度特征与海流相关性分析

为了研究热带印度洋偶极子(IOD)爆发年其耦合作用迅速消亡是否由海流异常引起,利用1958—2007年热带印度洋月均海表面温度(SST)和海流数据,分析IOD的主要特征,并探讨IOD与ENSO和海流异常之间的相关关系。通过对印度洋偶极子指数(DMI)及其经Hilber-t Huang变换后得到的固有模态函数(IMF)与南方涛动指数(SOI)的相关性分析,指出IOD与ENSO之间可能存在相关性,其中,表现出准2a周期振荡的IMF-3与ENSO相关性最好。通过对IOD爆发年DMI的进一步分析,证实IOD具有季节锁相的重要特征,并探讨该季节变化与海流异常的相关关系。结果表明,海流异常在热带印度洋SST的耦合振荡中起重要作用,但是它可能不是引起IOD迅速消亡的原因。     

Influence of the carbon cycle on the attribution of responsibility for climate change

The carbon cycle is one of the fundamental climate change issues.Its long-term evolution largely affects the amplitude and trend of human-induced climate change,as well as the formulation and implementation of emission reduction policy and technology for stabilizing the atmospheric CO2concentration.Two earth system models incorporating the global carbon cycle,the Community Earth System Model and the Beijing Normal University-Earth System Model,were used to investigate the effect of the carbon cycle on the attribution of the historical responsibility for climate change.The simulations show that when compared with the criterion based on cumulative emissions,the developed(developing)countries’responsibility is reduced(increased)by 6%–10%using atmospheric CO2concentration as the criterion.This discrepancy is attributed to the fact that the developed world contributed approximately61%–68%(61%–64%)to the change in global oceanic(terrestrial)carbon sequestration for the period from 1850 to2005,whereas the developing world contributed approximately 32%–49%(36%–39%).Under a developed world emissions scenario,the relatively larger uptake of global carbon sinks reduced the developed countries’responsibility for carbon emissions but increased their responsibility for global ocean acidification(68%).In addition,the large emissions from the developed world reduced the efficiency of the global carbon sinks,which may affect the long-term carbon sequestration and exacerbate global warming in the future.Therefore,it is necessary to further consider the interaction between carbon emissions and the carbon cycle when formulating emission reduction policy.     

卒中单元模式治疗急性脑血管病的进展

急性脑血管病（ACVD）亦称卒中（stroke）是世界性严重危害人类健康的急症。在许多国家．ACVD不仅是前三位死因疾病．而且其很高的致残率和经济负担导致突出的公众健康问题。半个多世纪来．仍缺乏解决这些问题有效方法。近年的许多临床研究表明．应用卒中单元（stokeunit．SU））模式管理治疗ACVD优于常规治疗模式．实际上SU适合所有ACVD患者。SU的介入治疗强调降低病死率、致残率。建立医院SU模式为治疗卒中开拓了新领域。     

海洋功能区划WebGIS的设计与实现

省级大比例尺海洋功能区划是为了提高海洋资源开发与管理的科学性 ,为海域使用管理提供基础数据 .为了更好地利用海洋功能区划信息 ,实行区划数据的动态管理和信息共享 ,提出把对象组件技术和网络共享技术应用于海洋功能区划管理信息系统中 ,建立海洋功能区划WebGIS ,实现区划信息的共建共享和网上公示 .     

Great progress in study on aerosol and its impact on the global environment

The transport from atmosphere is a more important pathway than that from rivers for certain elements and compounds in the remote ocean. The desert and those arid/semi-arid areas in the northwest of China and the Loess Plateau are the sources of those aerosols over the Pacific. Atmospheric iron is the limiting factor of the productivity in certain ocean regions. The dust storms must now be seen as repeated sources of pollution elements as well as soil elements to the East China Sea and, farther out, to the North Pacific Ocean and even to the USA. The long-range transport of aerosols, especially the dust storm, from China and the positive feedbacks of iron coupled with sulfur in atmosphere might be one of the important mechanisms that would affect the primary productivity in the Pacific and/or the global climate change and deserve to be further studied. It can be seen clearly that the dust storms would affect not only the health of human beings and the local or regional climate, but also the global climate change that has been the focus of environmental study internationally.     

Efficient export of carbon to the deep ocean through dissolved organic matter

Oceanic dissolved organic carbon (DOC) constitutes one of the largest pools of reduced carbon in the biosphere. Estimated DOC export from the surface ocean represents 20% of total organic carbon flux to the deep ocean, which constitutes a primary control on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. DOC is the carbon component of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and an accurate quantification of DOM pools, fluxes and their controls is therefore critical to understanding oceanic carbon cycling. DOC export is directly coupled with dissolved organic nitrogen and phosphorus export. However, the C:N:P stoichiometry (by atoms) of DOM dynamics is poorly understood. Here we study the stoichiometry of the DOM pool and of DOM decomposition in continental shelf, continental slope and central ocean gyre environments. We find that DOM is remineralized and produced with a C:N:P stoichiometry of 199:20:1 that is substantially lower than for bulk pools (typically >775:54:1), but greater than for particulate organic matter (106:16:1--the Redfield ratio). Thus for a given mass of new N and P introduced into surface water, more DOC can be exported than would occur at the Redfield ratio. This may contribute to the excess respiration estimated to occur in the interior ocean. Our results place an explicit constraint on global carbon export and elemental balance via advective pathways.     

西方公共管理及对我国政府改革的意义

公共管理作为产生于西方的一种新的管理思想,是在对传统公共行政批判与继承的基础上发展起来的.公共管理在政府的角色、公共管理主体等方面有很大的理论创新,研究这一理论,对我国政府改革有着重大的意义.     

当代西方政府改革的趋势及其启示

当代西方政府改革已走过了30多年的历程，其做法趋势体现了当代公共管理的新理念，这对于我国行政改革的深化，对于在市场经济条件下处理好政府与市场、企业和社会的关系，完善宏观调控机制．提高政府行政效率都具有一定的参考价值。     

Decline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation

Reorganizations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation were associated with large and abrupt climatic changes in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial period. Projections with climate models suggest that similar reorganizations may also occur in response to anthropogenic global warming. Here I use ensemble simulations with a coupled climate-ecosystem model of intermediate complexity to investigate the possible consequences of such disturbances to the marine ecosystem. In the simulations, a disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation leads to a collapse of the North Atlantic plankton stocks to less than half of their initial biomass, owing to rapid shoaling of winter mixed layers and their associated separation from the deep ocean nutrient reservoir. Globally integrated export production declines by more than 20 per cent owing to reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich deep water and gradual depletion of upper ocean nutrient concentrations. These model results are consistent with the available high-resolution palaeorecord, and suggest that global ocean productivity is sensitive to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.     

全球变化下的海岸带生态安全问题与管理原则

有关全球变化引起的生态安全问题近年来已经成为国内外研究的热点.与全球变化关系密切的海岸带地区的生态安全研究尚待深入.本文分析了全球变化引起的海岸带生态安全问题,探讨了海岸带生态安全的内涵,阐述了指导海岸带生态安全管理的原则,包括预警原则、资源定位原则、海陆一体化,以海定陆原则、公众参与原则和尺度匹配原则.     

海洋动力系统数值模式体系及海浪-环流耦合理论

从系统科学的观点出发,把海洋运动按照时空尺度分解成小尺度(以海浪为代表)子系统、中尺度(以内波为代表)子系统、大尺度(以大洋波动和环流为代表)子系统,并把海洋和大气之间通过近海面海洋大气层进行相互作用的部分称为近海面海洋大气边界层子系统。考虑各子系统之间的相互作用,提出了从海洋动力系统观点出发发展海洋数值模式体系的科学思路。通过考虑海浪对环流的垂向混合作用,将海浪的运动混合作用解析表达为可以通过海浪数值模式直接计算的海浪谱形式,建立了海浪-环流耦合理论。这一理论不仅将普林斯顿环流模式全球上100米的模拟海温与Levitus资料之间的平均相关系数从0.58提高到了0.76,而且加深了我们对中国近海海洋环流系统的理解,同时对气候模式热带偏差这一共性问题有显著改善。该理论对海洋环境预报和全球气候变化预测具有重要意义。     

热带气旋与海洋暖涡间的海-气相互作用

采用区域海?气耦合模式WRF-sbPOM, 设计敏感性试验, 通过控制海洋暖涡(WCR)的有无以及暖涡与热带气旋(TC)的相对位置, 对理想性TC与WCR间的海-气相互作用进行模拟研究。结果表明, 当TC经过WCR后, 因为WCR区域较厚的暖水使海表温度在TC经过后并没有明显的降低, 削弱了海?气间的负反馈机制, 所以TC强度增大。但受作用时间、气旋强度以及WCR处较强流速的影响, TC强度增大的程度不同, 移动速度较慢的TC有明显增强, 移动速度较快的TC增强不明显。同时TC向海洋中输入大量的机械能, 与WCR的反气旋式环流发生相互作用, WCR的形状由最初的圆形变为椭圆形, 热容量损失约30%, 动能损失约60%。     

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的应对政策及评估体系研究

 截至2021年2月,新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情已经在全球近200个国家和地区造成超1亿人感染,累计超200万例死亡。各国政府、企业、民间组织和家庭个人,根据各自治理模式、经济机制、社会环境及生活方式,纷纷采取相应对策,减少病毒的传播和危害。回顾了人类历史上重大突发公共卫生事件,介绍了世界各国应对突发公共卫生事件的相关政策及评估体系;分析应对突发公共卫生事件的亚洲模式、欧美模式和中国模式特点;总结了应对COVID-19疫情政策建议与实施技术指标,内容涵盖公众保护与防疫、交通和旅行、信息跟踪和病毒检查、个人防护和隔离、经济资助和社会帮扶,包含5大指标及15个子要素的疫情应对政策评估体系。     

Simulation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon by regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model:impacts of oceanic components

A successful simulation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon needs a regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model(ROAM). How the performance of ROAM relies on the oceanic component model remains unknown. In this study, the authors investigated the effects of different oceanic components on the simulation of western North Pacific(WNP) summer monsoon in a ROAM. Three cases of simulations were performed, viz. the summer of 1998(El Nin o decaying phase), 2004(El Nin o developing phase), and 1993(the non-ENSO phase). Results show that the coupled simulations for different ENSO phases exhibit improvements in the simulation of location of Meiyu rainband and spatial distribution of monsoon low-level flow over WNP, whereas the systemic cold biases of sea surface air temperature are further increased. The coupled simulations with different oceanic components show similar performance, which is not ENSO phase dependent. For the case of the summer of 1998, a slightly stronger western Pacific subtropical high and colder sea surface air temperature are found in the simulation with colder sea surface temperature(SST) biases. The colder SST biases are partly contributed by the ocean dynamics processes because the sea surface net flux favors a warmer SST. This study suggests that the dependence of performance of ROAM over WNP on oceanic models is much weaker than that on atmospheric models.     

基于机器学习的高校公共资源安全评价与科学管理

为了构建作为科学研究和人才培养基地的高校的节约型校园,实现以人为本、资源节约、环境友好和生态良性循环的目标,以便快速、准确评价高校公共安全运行水平,促进公共资源得到科学的管理与利用,本研究比较了随机森林算法、层次分析法和灰色关联法的相似性,建立了随机森林-灰色关联安全评价模型和评价指标体系,对安全变量进行分类和评价。通过训练样本的机器学习,得知医疗卫生防疫的权重值最高,其后是消防措施、餐饮环境、住宿环境、巡视与处理、学习办公、校门管理、机构与制度和机动车管理,其余变量权重小于平均值,分类错误率最高为16.3%,最低为13.5%。测试样本的安全评价值达到优良,比层次分析法高12.1个百分点。研究结果表明,新建评价模型更加灵活机动,评价可信度更高,其应用实施能有效提高公共资源管理水平,为建设节约型校园奠定基础。     

Tropospheric biennial oscillation of the western Pacific subtropical high and its relationships with the tropical SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies

There is the significant period of tropospheric biennial Oscillation(TBO)over East Asian monsoon region at the interannual timescales,which has the important influences on East China climate.Based on a set of reconstructed indices which describes the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)objectively,this paper focuses on the TBO component of WPSH,one of the key members of the East Asian Monsoon system,and its relationships with the tropical SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies.It is found that(1)As an important interannual component of WPSH,the time series of TBO has the obvious transition in the late1970s,and the variability of the WPSH’s TBO component is more significant after the late 1970s.(2)The time-lag correlations between the WPSH’s TBO and the tropical sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in several key ocean regions are more significant and have longer correlation duration than the raw data.The response of the western boundary index to ENSO is earlier than the intensity index,and the time-lag correlations of them are up to maximum when lagging ENSO by 3–5 months and 5–6months,respectively.(3)In the course of the WPSH’s TBO cycle,the occurrence of the El Ni o-like anomaly in the tropical central-eastern Pacific in winter is always coupled with the weak East Asian winter monsoon,with the most significant enhancing phase of the WPSH’TBO.In contrast,the La Ni a-like anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific in winter is coupled with the strong East Asian winter monsoon,with the most weakening phase of the WPSH’s TBO.(4)The distribution of the tropical SST and atmospheric circulations anomalies are asymmetric in the TBO cycle.The WPSH’s TBO is more significant in the period of the developing El Ni o-like anomaly in central-eastern Pacific than in the period of the developing La Ni a-like anomaly.Therefore,during the period of developing El Ni o-like anomaly,more attention should be paid to the interannual component of TBO signal in the short-term climate prediction.     

海洋安全指数测算方法

 提出了海洋安全指数的概念，并选取了海洋主权安全、海洋科技安全、海洋生态安全、海洋经济安全等4个方面的12个代表性指标，构建了海洋安全指标体系；初步设计了海洋安全指数测算方法，并测算了2013—2015年中国海洋安全指数；分析了影响海洋安全指数变化的因素。     

海洋安全指数测算方法

 提出了海洋安全指数的概念，并选取了海洋主权安全、海洋科技安全、海洋生态安全、海洋经济安全等4个方面的12个代表性指标，构建了海洋安全指标体系；初步设计了海洋安全指数测算方法，并测算了2013-2015年中国海洋安全指数；分析了影响海洋安全指数变化的因素。     

黄芩中多种金属元素含量测定及其初级形态分析

采用湿法硝解法对黄芩样品进行预处理,利用电感耦合等离子体质谱法(ICP-MS)测定了河南及甘肃2个不同产地的黄芩样品中的28种人体必需或有害的金属元素,结果表明黄芩中含有多种金属元素,不同产地黄芩中金属元素种类基本相同,不同金属元素含量差异较大,变化范围在0.1μg.g-1(Se)～5 277μg.g-1(Mg)(河南产黄芩).进一步以溶出率为指标对黄芩样品中金属元素初级形态进行了分析,结果表明不同金属元素的溶出率不同,多数在30%以下,但多种金属元素的可溶态在85%以上,说明金属元素在黄芩中可能与其他有机化合物成分形成配合物,其与有机配体形成配合物的稳定性决定了其溶出率的大小,其中可溶态较大的金属元素则可能以自由离子的形式或与某种低分子量配体结合的形式存在由于颗粒小,易通过滤膜而较易被人体吸收.黄芩中金属元素含量及其初级形态分析的研究结果可以为多种中成药制成冲剂、汤剂提供金属元素含量与形态方面的相关信息.