公路客运量预测方法的比较

科学准确地预测公路客运量,超前掌握公路客运量发展的趋势、特点、规律和数量,是制定公路客运发展和站场配置规划的基础。运用灰色模型、指数平滑模型、回归分析法、弹性系数法等多种预测模型对某城市2003~2015年公路客运量进行了分析预测,通过残差分析和绝对百分误差(MAPE)进行择优,提高了预测精确度。最后采用组合预测确定终值并进行了分析比较。结果表明,组合预测综合考虑了各种因素的影响,能够提高公路客运量预测精度,为公路客运发展提供科学决策依据。

Prediction methods of highway passenger volume

Scientifically and accurately predicting passenger volume, mastering the development trend.characteristic.raw and quantity is the base of constituting passenger development and coach station collocation plan. This paper predicts highway passenger volume of one city during 2003-2015 by four methods, gray model, three index smooth model, regressive analyst and flexible coefficient. In order to improve the forecasting accuracy, it applies residual error analysis and absolute percentage errors, and applies the combined forecasting models to determine the terminal values, which is a valuable research for highway passenger volume forecasting. 2 tabs, 3 figs, 9 refs.