城市化门槛、贸易开放与人力资本 ——基于中国省际面板数据的门槛回归分析

利用2003--2011年中国省际面板数据，采用最小二乘法实证检验了对外贸易通过直接和间接溢出效应对人力资本积累的影响。研究结果显示，贸易开放通过直接效应抑制了人力资本积累增长，而城市化发展起到了门槛作用，影响着贸易开放通过间接效应促进人力资本积累1-2]，并且贸易开放对人力资本的影响存在区域差异。在此基础上，利用门槛回归模型进一步检验了城市化水平影响贸易开放对人力资本积累的门槛特征，并测算其门槛水平。

Threshold of Urbanization,Trade Openness and Human Capital---Threshold Regression Analysis based on Chinese Provincial Panel Data

In this paper, using Chinese Provincial Panel Data from 2003 to 2011, adopting Least square method to examine the effect of trade liberalization on human capital accumulation through direct and indirect overflow effect. The results show that trade liber- alization inhibits the growth of human capital accumulation through the direct effect,while urbanization has played a role of threshold, impacting the trade liberalization to promote human capital accumulation through the indirect effect, and the effect of trade liberalization on human capital has regional differences. On this basis, this paper uses the threshold regression model to further examine the threshold features of the effect of urbanization on trade liberalization to promote human capital accumulation and measures its threshold level.