| 基于GM(1,1)-Markov模型的我国人口城市化水平预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 石留杰,李艳军,臧雨亭,戴晓明,张妩娜.基于GM(1,1)-Markov模型的我国人口城市化水平预测[J].四川理工学院学报(自然科学版),2010,23(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 石留杰 李艳军 臧雨亭 戴晓明 张妩娜 |
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| 基金项目： | 河南省教育科学"十一五"规划课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 结合灰色GM(1,1)模型和马尔可夫链理论的优点,建立耦合的GM(1,1)-Markov预测模型。实例预测2009年—2015年我国人口城市化水平,其结果证明GM(1,1)-Markov模型预测精度较高,具有较强的科学性和实用性。
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1 1)模型 Markov链 城市化 预测 Matlab |
Forcast of the Level of China's Urbanization Based on GM(1,1)-Markov Model |
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| SHI Liu-jie,LI Yan-jun,ZANG Yu-ting,DAI Xiao-ming,ZHANG Wu-na.Forcast of the Level of China's Urbanization Based on GM(1,1)-Markov Model[J].Journal of Sichuan University of Science & Engineering:Natural Science Editton,2010,23(6). |
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| Authors: | SHI Liu-jie LI Yan-jun ZANG Yu-ting DAI Xiao-ming ZHANG Wu-na |
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| Abstract: | By combining the advantages of both Gray prediction and Markov prediction chain theory,a new Gray Markov metabolism GM(1,1)model is proposed.The forecasting result of the level of China's urbanization from 2009 to 2015 by this method shows that this method is practical and scientific. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) model Markov chains urbanization forecast Matlab |
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