| 改进GM(1,1)模型在城市流动人口预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 廖媛,王明刚.改进GM(1,1)模型在城市流动人口预测中的应用[J].科学技术与工程,2012,12(3):709-711. |
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| 作者姓名： | 廖媛 王明刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京师范大学泰州学院,泰州,225300 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省高等学校大学生实践创新训练计划项目，泰州市科技发展计划项目，南京师范大学泰州学院精品课程项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用泰州市2003-2009年流动人口数据,建立GM(1,1)模型、残差GM(1,1)模型和等维递补GM(1,1)模型对流动人口数量进行预测.并用多种方法检验了三种模型的拟合效果.结果表明三种模型均能合理地对流动人口数量变化进行预测,但残差GM(1,1)模型和动态等维递补GM(1,1)模型拟合效果优于一般的GM(1,1)模型.
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| 关 键 词： | 人口流动 GM(1 1)模型 残差模型 等维递补 |
| 收稿时间： | 11/5/2011 2:54:34 PM |
| 修稿时间： | 2011/11/16 0:00:00 |
Application of Improved GM(1,1) model to prediction of floating population |
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| liaoyuan and wangminggang.Application of Improved GM(1,1) model to prediction of floating population[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2012,12(3):709-711. |
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| Authors: | liaoyuan and wangminggang |
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| Institution: | (College of Taizhou,Nanjing Normal University,Taizhou 225300,P.R.China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the data of the floating population of Tai Zhou from 2003 to 2009,establish GM(1,1) model,remaining GM(1,1) model and the model of equivalent dimensions additional GM(1,1) for prediction and test the fitting results of the three models in several ways. The results show that these three models all could predict the the floating population,but the remaining GM(1,1) model and the model of equivalent dimensions additional GM(1,1) fitted better than the ordinary GM(1,1) model. |
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| Keywords: | population flow GM(1 1) model remaining model equivalent dimensions additional |
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