草海湿地区域土地利用/覆被变化与预测研究

针对草海湿地区域典型性、特殊性,以1990、2000和2010年三期遥感影像为数据源,综合运用3S技术方法,从时间和空间两方面对研究区土地利用/覆被变化进行分析,继而利用MARKOV和CA-MARKOV模型预测研究区2020年土地利用情况.结果表明:草海湿地区域林地面积最大,耕地、草地面积变化较大,水域和建设用地的变化幅度和变化率明显且持续增加;从土地利用程度综合指数、变化量和变化率来看,土地利用集约化程度提高,土地利用正处于发展时期;从空间变化来看,1990-2000年土地利用/覆被类型间转化不大,2000—2010年转化较为复杂.通过对2020年预测分析结果可知,随着城镇化进程的加快,建设用地增加明显,水域面积持续增加,草海湿地继续得以保护.

Analysis and Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Caohai Wetland Areas

According to the typicality and particularity of Caohai wetland areas,three period time remote sensing images in the year of 1990,2000 and 2010 were used as the data source,which was used to analysis the LUCC(land use and land cover change,LUCC)from time and space based on 3 Stechnology.Then,MARKOV and CA-MARKOV models were used to predict 2020 LUCC situation in the study areas.The results showed that the area of forest was the largest,the cultivated land and grassland changed greatly,the change and change rate of water and construction was obvious and continued to increase.From the comprehensive index of land use degree,change and change rate,the degree of land use intensification had improved and land use was in the development period.From the view of spatial changes,the transformation of LUCC in 1990—2000was less,and was more complex in 2000—2010.By results of predictive analysis to 2020,the construction increased significantly with the accelerated process of urbanization,and the water continued to increase.The Caohai wetland would continued to be protected.