浅议高速公路交通量预测和收费标准制定

四阶段法基于起讫点调查,要获得全部路段交通量比较困难。经济增长因素、转移交通量、路网条件的 变化还影响其准确性。建议采用起讫点调查与区域内路段交通量历年实测量相结合的方法，提高前期收集数据的准确性；在标定交通量与分配模型时采用非平衡模型中的静态多路径分配方法，着重考虑出行时间、出行距离以及路况等因素对出行者选择出行路线的影响，使预测交通量更接近实际交通量，确定出相应的、合理的费率标准，让投资者在政府允许的年限内还清贷款和利息。

On the Forecast of Traffic on the Expressways and Workingout of Toll Criterion

It is difficult to obtain the full traffic of the whole highway by the four stage method which is based on the survey at both the initial and the terminal.The survey accuracy is also affected by economic development, traffic shift and route net situation.To get more detailed traffic and make up rational toll rate for the investors to obtain return from the investment in the limited period,some suggestions are released as follows.The survey at the initial and the terminal needs to be combined with historic observations of traffic in the sections of highway in the region.The static multi ways distribution of non balance model is used in the determination of traffic distribution model,weighing on the influences of depart time,travel distance and route situation on goers.