1961~2005年南宁灾害性天气气候事件的变化

利用1961～2005年南宁市最高、最低和平均温度资料，分析近50a来南宁市的气温变化特征，通过气候变暖前后灾害性天气气候事件的对比，分析南宁市灾害性天气气候事件的变化规律。结果表明，1961～2005年南宁市年平均气温增温趋势明显，温度变率为0．3C／10a，各季节平均气温均呈上升趋势，秋季增温最明显，冬季次之，夏季位居第三，春季增温最小。年平均最高气温呈较弱的增暖，变率为0．13C／10a，而年平均最低气温的增暖趋势比年平均最高气温明显，为0．36C／10a。年平均日校差的变化则呈递减的趋势，变率为-0．23C／10a。在全球气候增暖和城市化快速发展的过程中，南宁市的灾害性天气气候事件发生了明显的变化：极端强降水有增加趋势，高温天气明显增多，持续高温天气加剧，雷暴和大风日数明显减少，春季低温阴雨天气减少。南宁市灾害性天气气候事件变化的原因可能与全球气候变暖有关，城市化可能是造成南宁市灾害性天气气候事件变化的主要原因。

Changes in Disastrous Weather Climate Events in Nanning During 1961～2005

Based on Nanning＇s temperature observations from 1961 to 2005, time series of temperature were represented with average, maximum and minimum temperatures. By using the statistical method, changes in temperature for Nanning were studied, and by contrasting the frequency and intensity during different periods before and after climate warming, change characteristics of disastrous weather and climate events were discussed. The results show that annual average temperature of Nanning from 1961 to 2005 increased obviously with the rate of change of 0.3 C/10a. The seasonal average temperatures have a trend of increasing in the sequence of autumn,winter, summer and spring. The annual maximum temperatures have slight increasing with the rate of change of 0.13 C/10a. The annual minimum temperatures increased with a more remarkable rate of change of 0. 36 C/10a. The annual diurnal range decreased with the rate of change of -0.23 C/10a. Under the global warming and the rapid development of urbanization of Nanning,the trend of extreme precipitation events is increasing. The high temperature days and continuous high temperature events have obviously increased, while the annual number of thunderstorm and strong wind days has decreased, and the low temperature with rainy events have decreased. Changes in disastrous weather climate events in Nanning seem to be related to the global warming,however, urbanization of Nanning will probably be the main reason.