| 基于一种扩展模糊Petri网的列车运行晚点致因建模分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王诗慧,李孝忠.基于一种扩展模糊Petri网的列车运行晚点致因建模分析[J].天津科技大学学报,2014(4):53-57. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王诗慧 李孝忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津科技大学计算机科学与信息工程学院,天津300222 |
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| 基金项目： | 基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目（61070021,11301382） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对目前我国列车运行晚点较严重的问题,提出一种扩展的模糊Petri网(extended fuuzy Petri net,EFPN),并以对列车正点运行有重大影响的主要因素为基础,模拟给出其因果关系,建立了基于EFPN的列车运行致因的分析模型,利用EFPN推理算法分析计算模型中某个致因因素导致列车运行晚点的真实度,真实度最高的致因因素则是导致列车运行晚点的最主要因素.实例分析表明,EFPN模型能够体现各因素之间的逻辑关系,通过定量分析可得到导致列车运行晚点的主要原因.
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| 关 键 词： | 列车晚点 EFPN 致因分析 真实度 |
Modeling and Analyzing Train Running Delays Causation Based on an Extended Fuzzy Petri Net |
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| WANG Shihui,LI Xiaozhong.Modeling and Analyzing Train Running Delays Causation Based on an Extended Fuzzy Petri Net[J].Journal of Tianjin University of Science & Technology,2014(4):53-57. |
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| Authors: | WANG Shihui LI Xiaozhong |
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| Institution: | (College of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Tianjin University of Science ＆ Technology, Tianjin 300222, China) |
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| Abstract: | In view of the serious situation of train running delays,an extended fuzzy Petri net was proposed（extended fuuzy Petri net,EFPN）,and on the basis of some critical factors easily causing delays,a train delay causal analysis model based on EFPN was constructed after simulating and analyzing the causality of the given factors. EFPN reasoning algorithm was used to analyse and calculate the validity of the factors which lead to train delays,and the highest validity of the cause is the most key factor of train delays. Case analysis indicates that EFPN model can reflect the logical relationship among various factors,and it can get the main causes of train running delays through quantitative analysis. |
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| Keywords: | train delays EFPN causal analysis validity |
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