“一带一路”沿线撒哈拉以南非洲地区能矿资源投资风险指数研究

 撒哈拉以南非洲地区能源矿产种类繁多、储量丰富,其天然的矿产资源禀赋,极具投资吸引力。能源矿产领域是中国与非洲众多合作领域中一个重要的方面,增强与撒哈拉以南地区能源矿产投资合作建设,将会积极响应中国“一带一路”倡议。本文综合考虑了撒哈拉以南非洲地区能源矿产储量、社会经济因素、自然地理情况及政治外交等,通过鱼骨图方法分析找出能源矿产投资的主次要因素,重点考虑能源矿产投资因素和自然地理因素,构建了基于多级模糊综合评价方法的撒哈拉以南非洲地区能源矿产投资分析模型,通过评价指标选取、指标体系建立和指标权重分析,对主控投资因素进行研究和评价分析,得到撒哈拉以南非洲国家能源矿产行业投资权重排名,其中能源储量大、地理适宜度良好是最大的投资吸引力;外交能力、法制环境和文化交融程度是投资可能面临的主要风险因素;综合投资环境属于“优”。

On the risk index of energy resources investment in sub-Saharan Africa along “the Belt and Road Initiative”

There are a wide range of energy minerals and abundant reserves in the sub-Saharan Africa region. The natural mineral resources endowments are highly attractive to investment. Thus, it is important to strengthen the construction of energy and mineral investment in sub-Saharan region for promoting the implementation of "the Belt and Road Initiative" (B&R). This paper uses the fishbone diagram to analyze the primary and secondary factors of energy and mineral investment, which takes into account the energy and mineral reserves, socioeconomic factors, natural geography and political diplomacy in sub-Saharan Africa, and pays much attention to the energy and mineral investment factor. It provides an analysis model of energy and mineral investment in sub-Saharan Africa based on the multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the selection of index, establishment of index system and analysis of index weight, it also presents a study and evaluation analysis of the main investment factors, and obtains the investment weight ranking of energy and mineral industry among sub-Saharan African countries. Rich energy reserves and good geographical suitability are the greatest investment attraction; the capacity of diplomacy, legal environment and culture are the main risk factors that investment may face; the comprehensive investment environment is "excellent". This study provides a scientific basis and objective understanding for Chinese enterprises in the field of energy and mineral resources to invest in sub-Saharan Africa.