能源转型背景下的中国镍动态物质流分析

 基于动态物质流分析方法，构建了镍的全生命周期物质流分析框架，核算并分析了2000—2020年中国镍金属物质流各阶段格局变化情况。结果表明：（1）生产视角下，能源转型下镍矿需求出现回升； 2020年镍回收率已达20.4%；（2）消费视角下，加工阶段，电池行业已超越电镀行业成为第二耗镍部门；制造阶段，工业机械部门耗镍占比下滑至2019年的28.9%，新能源汽车耗镍量由2015年的4275 t连续上升至2020年1.6万t；（3）贸易视角下，近年来中国制造和加工阶段为净出口状态，开采和冶炼加工阶段皆为净进口状态，其中镍铁产品净进口量飞速增长，由2000年的105.7 t增长到2020年的41.3万t；不锈钢净出口量由2016年的21.3万t连续下降至2020年的10.9万t；（4）存量视角下，终端消费品在用存量变化主要由运输业和建筑与基础设施两大部门驱动，新能源汽车在用存量5年增加了131倍。

Dynamic material flow analysis of nickel in China under the background of energy transformation

To reveal the trend of material flow patterns at different stages of nickel resources in China, a life-cycle material flow analysis framework of nickel is constructed based on the dynamic material flow analysis method, and the change of material flow patterns at different stages of nickel resources in China from 2000 to 2020 is calculated and analyzed. The results are as follows. From a production perspective, nickel ore demand recovered under the new energy transition with nickel recovery being 20.4% in 2020. From a consumption perspective, the battery industry in the processing stage surpassed the electroplating industry to become the second nickel consuming sector while nickel consumption of manufacturing stage in the industrial sector decreased to 28.9% in 2019, and nickel consumption of new energy vehicles increased from 4275.0 t in 2015 to 16000 t in 2020. From a trade perspective, in recent years all stages of China except manufacturing and processing stages were net imported, among which net import products of nickel and iron increased rapidly from 105.7 t in 2000 to 413000 t in 2020, with a reduction of net export stainless steel from 213000 t in 2016 to 109000 t in 2020. From a stock perspective, the change in the in-use stock of terminal consumer goods was mainly driven by the transportation industry and construction and infrastructure, and the in-use stock of new energy vehicles increased by 131 times in five years.