风电场风速和风电功率预报准确率评判方法

 对风电场风速和风电功率预报进行客观准确的评判,可以有效促进风电场风速和风电功率预报水平的提升,为减缓风电并网对电网的影响服务.本文在对风电场风速和风电功率预报准确率评判方法进行全面回顾的基础上,分析了常用数学预报准确率评判法、相对于风电场额定值的预报准确率评判法、等级预报准确率评判法和与风力发电特征紧密结合的风电场风速预报准确率评判法.同时还分析了这4类风电场风速和风电功率预报准确率评判方法的特质,及其与风力发电特征的结合程度和适用范围.

Evaluation Methods for Forecast Accuracy of Wind Speed and Wind Power of a Wind Farm

The accurate evaluation of the wind speed and wind power forecast for a wind farm can effectively promote the forecasting accurate levels and reduce the adverse effects of the wind power on the power network. This paper makes a comprehensive review of forecast accuracy evaluation methods of the wind speed and the wind power for wind farms, and it is shown that the forecast accuracy evaluation methods fall into four categories, the common mathematical prediction accuracy evaluation method, the forecast error percentage method relative to the wind farm rating, the grade forecast accuracy evaluation method and the method closely integrated with the wind power generation characteristics. These accuracy evaluation methods are analyzed with respect to the characteristics, the extent and the scope, related with the wind power generation characteristics.