基于区间直觉模糊数的得分函数与精确函数及其应用

在模糊决策理论中，区间直觉模糊数的排序是一个非常重要的理论问题.运用得分函数和精确函数对区间直觉模糊数进行有效排序的关键是得分函数和精确函数的科学构建.本文基于得分函数和精确函数的内涵，运用概率论全概率公式思想提出了新的得分函数和精确函数，并证明了其公理化的性质.通过大量的实际数据测算与比较分析，验证了本文提出的得分函数和精确函数的科学性，从而在对区间直觉模糊数排序时更有效、更准确.     

Intermittent demand forecasting in the Enterprise: Empirical verification

Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well).     

改进的非参数 Ce ns us 变换立体匹配算法

针对多数立体匹配算法的相似性测度都建立在像素灰度特性基础上, 无法彻底消除匹配差异性, 易出现歧异性的问题, 提出一种改进的非参数Census变换匹配算法. 该算法通过在传统非参数Census匹配过程中增加局部纹理反差值测度, 引入图像纹理度量的方向性, 使中心像素灰度值不再是唯一决定因素, 改进了匹配模版, 从而有效解决了传统匹配算法的歧异性问题. 实验结果表明, 改进算法是一种有效、 合理的立体匹配方法, 提高了稠密匹配精度.     

基于成像算子优化的微震逆时定位方法

针对目前微震逆时定位成像存在的问题,提出一种优化后的成像算子,对模型数据进行抗噪性、误差速度以及检波器分布和数量进行测试,并提出采用峰度值作为定位成像结果的评价标准。结果表明,优化后的成像条件在定位能量聚焦程度和成像分辨率上都得到了提升,对含速度误差和含噪微震数据都有较好的成像结果,并且对检波器的分布和数量有较好的适应性,取得了较为理想的定位效果。     

Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts

By linking measures of forecast accuracy as well as testing procedures with regard to forecast rationality this paper investigates aggregated survey forecasts with forecast horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months for the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan, the Hong Kong dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Singapore dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar and, hence, for four different currency regimes. The rationality of the exchange rate predictions is initially assessed utilizing tests for unbiasedness and efficiency which indicate that the investigated forecasts are irrational in the sense that the predictions are biased. As one major contribution of this paper, it is subsequently shown that these results are not consistent with an alternative, less restrictive, measure of rationality. Investigating the order of integration of the time series as well as cointegrating relationships, this empirical evidence supports the conclusion that the majority of forecasts are in fact rational. Regarding forerunning properties of the predictions, the results are rather mediocre, with shorter term forecasts for the tightly managed USD/CNY FX regime being one exception. As one additional important and novel evaluation result, it can be concluded, that the currency regime matters for the quality of exchange rate forecasts.     

基于SHELL单元模型的对薄壁件铣削仿真优化分析

为了实现对薄壁框架零件较高精度的铣削加工,通过基于SHELL单元所组成的有限元模型,在充分提高分析效率的基础上,分析了落刀位置、零件几何尺寸以及切削用量在加工过程中对零件变形的影响,最终对零件的不同切削参数下的变形量进行了分析.最终可以得出结论:采用基于SHELL单元的有限元模型在提高分析效率的基础上,可以对薄壁件的加工过程进行较为系统的优化最终以达到提高薄壁件加工精度和加工效率的目的.     

双α-链对角占优矩阵线性互补问题的误差界

根据双α-链对角占优矩阵的定义与性质,给出其线性互补问题的误差界.数值实例显示该误差界在判定线性互补问题近似解的精确性中是有效的.     

硅臂加工误差对微靶装配精度的影响研究

为预测加工误差对微靶装配精度的影响,开展了加工误差对硅臂刚度及应力分布的影响研究. 基于PRO/E逆向工程对实际加工的硅臂样品建模,并搭建实验平台,建立微力与微位移关系的数学模型. 采用仿真与实验相结合的方法,对硅臂存在加工误差与无加工误差的情况下的刚度进行对比,定量预测微靶的装配精度. 研究表明为提高装配精度,必须充分考虑装配力和形位误差形成的非线性误差和非均匀应力场的影响.      

建筑物重建中的三维激光扫描精度分析

针对三维激光扫描技术在建筑物重建中数据采集、处理方面存在的误差,从三维激光扫描仪测站定向误差、仪器扫描误差、数据拼接误差进行分析,并构建了点位误差模型,为三维激光扫描技术在建筑物的重建中测量成果的精度评定及测量方案的优化设计提供了理论基础.最后以脉冲式三维激光扫描仪为例对建筑物重建进行精度分析.