基于Mixed Logit模型的土木系统工程可靠性预测

 将土木工程与系统工程相结合,应用Mixed Logit模型研究了土木系统工程的可靠性。通过对问卷调查数据的SPSS统计与信度分析,确定了影响土木系统工程可靠性的关键因素,建立了相应的Mixed Logit模型,并以多元统计分析软件SAS进行模拟,对土木系统工程的3种典型模式DBB、PMC和EPC进行了可靠性预测。结果显示,DBB模式的可靠性指标为83.69%,而PMC、EPC模式的可靠性指标分别为76.03%和71.39%,表明DBB模式具有较高的可靠性。该预测方法及结果可为土木系统工程的应用研究提供理论依据。

Reliability Analysis of Civil Systems Engineering Based on Mixed Logit Model

The mixed Logit model is used to study the reliability of the civil systems engineering in combination with the civil engineering and the systems engineering. The SPSS software is used to make the statistical and reliability analyses of the survey data, and the key indicators that affect the reliability of the civil systems engineering are obtained. In the meanwhile, an appropriate mixed Logit model is established, and the multivariate statistical analysis software SAS is used for simulation and reliability analyses with respect to the three typical modes of civil systems engineering-DBB, PMC, and EPC. It is shown that the reliability index of DBB mode is 83.69%, while those of the PMC model and the EPC mode are 76.03% and 71.39%, which indicates that that DBB mode has the highest reliability. The results and the method provide a theoretical basis for the applications of the civil systems engineering modes.