WRF模式在云南一次强降水过程中的应用

利用WRF数值模式,针对云南省一次强降水过程进行的数值试验,得到几个有意义的结论:①WRF模式的三维变分同化系统能反映地转平衡等多变量之间的相互关系.②在此次强降水过程试验中,同化系统能把雷达反演风场中低空急流信息有效地引入模式初始场,并按照同化模型进行增量空间分配,有助于增强降水区的水汽输送,改善模式较强量级降水的预报漏报率.③多个时次雷达资料的同化对降水预报的改善更加突出,具有高时空分辨率特性的雷达资料同化在提高客观预报质量方面有着较好的应用前景.

The application of WRF numerical model in a torrential rain case occurred in Yunnan

Using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model and its 3-Dimension Variational assimilation system(WRF-3DVar) a torrential rain case occurred in Yunnan Province is simulated and studied.The results indicate that the WRF-3DVar can reasonably reflect the relationships among multivariable and availably.In the case the WRF-3DVar availably assimilate the information of low-level jet to the initial condition of regional numerical model,further more reasonably distribute the wind increment as model.The assimilation of the retrieved wind data help to strengthen water vapor transportation and improve the veracity of forecast precipitation.In addition the more times data assimilation improve rain forecast accuracy more clearly,so the retrieved wind data have a good referenced value and outlook in the weather forecast,which have higher frequency observation.