| 交通事件持续时间分布拟合及其加速消散模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 丛浩哲,王俊骅,方守恩,童世鑫.交通事件持续时间分布拟合及其加速消散模型[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2011,39(10):1468-1472. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丛浩哲 王俊骅 方守恩 童世鑫 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海 201804;公安部道路交通安全研究中心,北京 100062
2. 同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海,201804 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划课题（2009BAG13A06） |
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| 摘 要： | 对某高速公路交通事件管理系统中记录的3年交通事件信息进行了数据统计处理,对交通事件持续时间的随机分布进行了多种拟合分析和分布检验,构建了基于对数逻辑斯特分布的交通事件持续时间加速消散模型.该预测模型可以使用不同的拟合分布并接受缺失数据,样本检验能很好地预测交通事件持续时间及其累积结束概率.
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| 关 键 词： | 高速公路 交通事件 持续时间 分布拟合 加速消散模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010/11/1 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 7/25/2011 3:05:59 AM |
Fitting Distribution of Freeway Incident Duration and Accelerated Failure Time Modeling |
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| CONG Haozhe,WANG Junhu,FANG Shouen and TONG Shixin.Fitting Distribution of Freeway Incident Duration and Accelerated Failure Time Modeling[J].Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science),2011,39(10):1468-1472. |
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| Authors: | CONG Haozhe WANG Junhu FANG Shouen and TONG Shixin |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China;Road Traffic Safety Research Centre of the Ministry of Public Security, Beijing 100062, China;Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China;Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China;Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China |
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| Abstract: | Distribution model choice,parameters' estimation and measures of goodness of fit were carried out,and the best distribution fitting for incident duration data was Log-Logistic distribution.Accelerated failure time(AFT) modeling was employed based on survival analysis and Log-Logistic distribution.Then stepwise by Akaike information criterion(AIC) was used to find the best group of factors for the prediction of freeway incident duration.The test result indicates that AFT model can represent actual incident d... |
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| Keywords: | freeway incident duration fitting distribution accelerated failure time |
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