复杂工序关系的模糊网络计划分析与建模

剖析模糊网络计划在进行时间参数计算时的矛盾，即工序间因网络拓扑结构存在内在的相关性而计算中要求工序时间参数是相互独立的这一矛盾，为此将概率统计方法引进模糊网络计算中，先把模糊数量化并给出模糊数大小比较的原则，进而提出了模糊数运算的新定义．在建立模糊网络计划模型时，同时考虑了工序间的逻辑组织关系和搭接及特殊时间限定两类关系．在工序最早时间参数计算的基础上，直接计算工序的时差，避开了通过求取网络最迟时间参数再求取时差时可能出现时间参数为负值的矛盾局面．借助Visual C^＋＋语言编制的程序，实现了模型的时间参数计算、关键性分析和工期风险分析等功能．最后通过一个包含10项工序的模糊网络算例，阐明了模型的应用过程，并将计算结果与另一模型的计算结果进行了对比分析，验证了本模型的有效性．

Analysis and Modeling of Fuzzy Network Planning Considering Complicated Activity Relationships

Based on analysis of contradiction between inherent relativity of network planning topology structure among activities and independent requirement of activity's time parameters during fuzzy network planning calculation , probability statistics method is applied to new definitions of fuzzy number operations, which first converts fuzzy parameters to determinate ones in virtue of probability statistics method and then puts forward the principle of judging the size of two fuzzy numbers. A new fuzzy network planning model is proposed in contrast with existing models, considering not only logical and organizational relationships but also overlapped and specific time limited relationships among activities. Based on the calculation of activity's earliest time parameters, activity's floats are worked out directly, which avoids embarrassment of negative time parameters when computing activity's floats by the calculation of activity latest time parameters. With the help of Visual C program, functions of the model are realized which include time parameters calculation, criticality analysis and project period risk analysis. At last, a case study including ten activities is used to demonstrate the application of the model proposed, and validity of model proposed is proved by comparison with another model's results.