| Logistic模型改进及山西人口预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 张荔.Logistic模型改进及山西人口预测[J].太原师范学院学报(自然科学版),2013(1):9-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张荔 |
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| 作者单位： | 晋中师范高等专科学校数学系 |
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| 摘 要： | 就我国现阶段而言由于实行计划生育，人口增长率已经很低，显然Logistic模型中r（z）为z的简单线性函数已很难准确预测未来人口．为了更准确地预测中国未来人口，文章对r（z）与z的关系进一步改进，得到了一个新的模型：面dx=r（x0）ea--bxX，X（O）=x0．并根据1990年到2010年山西人口的数据对山西2020年，2030年，2040年，2050年人口进行了预测．
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| 关 键 词： | Logistic模型 人口增长率 线性最小二乘法 数据拟合 |
Improved Logistic Model and Forecasting the Population of Shanxi |
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| Zhang Li.Improved Logistic Model and Forecasting the Population of Shanxi[J].Journal of Taiyuan Normal University:Natural Science Edition,2013(1):9-11. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Li |
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| Institution: | Zhang Li(Department of Mathematics,Jinzhong Teachers College,Jinzhong 030600,China) |
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| Abstract: | In China at present due to the growth rate is very low, obviously Logistic model accurately predict the future population. To more implementation of family planning, population for simple linear function has been difficult to accurately describe China＇s future population, dx this paper obtain a new model： dx/dt=r（x0）ea-bx,x（0）=x0. And according to a 1990 to 2010 Shanxi demographic data on Shanxi in 2020,2030,2040,2050,the population was predicted. |
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| Keywords: | Logistic model method ~ population growth rate linear least squares fitting da-ta |
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