基于合作的工程项目风险动态模糊评价

工程项目风险产生的主要来源是工程项目信息的不完全性和不确定性.在项目管理过程中,项目参与方合作性的好坏直接影响信息的交流,从而对工程项目的风险产生影响.在传统风险评价模型的基础上,建立了基于合作的工程项目风险动态模糊评价模型,确定了项目合作性评价指标的层次结构;利用修正模糊AHP方法确定了各个指标的权重,并利用模糊推理方法,对工程项目风险进行了定量研究.这种方法考虑了项目参与方的合作性对工程项目风险大小的影响及项目风险随时间变化的动态性,从而使得风险的评价更合理.

Dynamic fuzzy evaluation of construction project risk based on collaboration

The incompletion and uncertainty of information can raise construction project risk. In the process of project management, the collaboration among project parties affects the information communication and impacts on project risk. Based on traditional risk evaluation model, the dynamic fuzzy evaluation model of construction project risk is proposed based on collaboration. The hiberarchy of the collaboration evaluation index among project parties is presented, and the weight of every index is calculated by modified fuzzy AHP. The quantitative research on project risk is conducted by fuzzy reasoning method. This risk evaluation method is more reasonable because of considering the influence of collaboration among the parties on project risk and the dynamic character of project risk changing with time.