复杂供应链网络中的不确定性分析

针对供应链网络的复杂性和其内外部环境的不确定性，根据复杂网络理论对供应链网络进行了诠释，利用分形理论构造了一个可能的供应链网络，阐述了供应链网络在具备一般复杂网络特点的同时也具有小世界、无标度网络的大多数特性。同时。对供应链复杂网络中存在的各种不确定性进行了讨论，分析了供应链中不确定性的传播机制与控制方法。研究表明：缩短交货提前期，加强信息交流能有效地提高核心企业应对不确定性的能力，对控制企业不确定性的发生具有重要的作用。

Analysis of Uncertainty in Complex Supply Chain Networks

We have explained the supply chain through theories of complex networks, constructed a possible supply chain using tractal theory illustrated the supply chain networks possess general characteristics of complex networks, and also the characteristics of small-world networks and scale-free networks. We have also discussed the various uncertainties existed in complex supply chain networks, analyzed the spreading mechanism and controlling method of uncertainties in the supply chain. Then we concluded that reducing the lead time and enhancing information communication can effectively improve the responsibility of the core enterprise to uncertainties, and the transmission of uncertainty along the supply chain.