地裂差异沉降的泊松旋回过程分析

根据西安市小寨地裂差异沉降带的地质背景，建立了泊松旋回预测方程，论证了其演化规律及其盛衰阶段，引入指数函数法进行沉降阶段的对比研究，将西安小寨地裂差异沉降划分为四个阶段，根据预测的速率可推算出2010年到2050年40年的地裂差异累计沉降量。

Analysis for taphrogenic differential settlement with Poisson cycle method

Based on the geological background of traphrogenic differential settlement in Xiaozhai, Xi'an city, the forecasting equation with poisson cycle is set up. By Poisson cycle fundamentals the principle of forecasting equation establishment is emphasized aiming at the objective function to fit the criterion of minimum absolute deflection with optimizing conditions. Stage forecast for both of them is generally performed. According to exponent function method the comparision study with that of Poisson cycle is carried out. Specially the developing stage and the substantiality of ground fissure in Xi'an are emphatically. In this paper, a mathematics method is used to analyze and forecast the taphrogenic differential settlement in quantitative, including Poisson cycle by which the rate of taphrogenic differential settlement in Xiaozhai is analyzed and, accordingly, its settlement of 40 years later from 2010 to 2050 year are calculated.