马尔柯夫链-线性回归组合预测专门人才方法

根据最小二乘法原理，确定马尔柯夫链和线性回归两种预测方法的组合加权系数；在建立数学模型时，既考虑了影响专门人才数量的各种因素，又考虑了专门人才的动态分布，避免了以往单一预测方法仅限于利用部分信息资料的缺陷；在预测专门人才结构时，根据两种方法组合预测值来修正马尔柯夫模型中的补充量，使预测结构更合理．

The Professional Manpower Forecasting Study by Markov Chain Combined with Linear Regression

The composite weighting coefficients of combined Markov chain and linear regression methods were determined according to the principle of least square; In setting up the mathematic models, not only the factors which affect the quality of professional manpower, but also the dynamic distribution of professional manpower were considered, and so the drawback that only partial material was used because of using only one forecasting method was avoided; When the professional manpower structure was forecasted, the supplementing quantity of manpower was corrected according to combined forecasting value of the two methods, so the manpower forecast structure will be more reasonable.