回溯推理与经济解释

皮尔士提出的回溯推理是根据事实尝试性地提出理论假说,应用演绎推理从前提推出一些结论,作出预言,然后,根据实验来验证.如果预言得到实验的证实,那么,我们可以在一定程度上接受这一假说,把它转化为理论.回溯推理是一类独立的逻辑推理形式,其特点在于作出最佳解释.最佳解释推理要求具备一致性、简单性、类比性等特点.回溯推理在经济解释和经济学方法论中比归纳和演绎更为适用.     

科学发现的本质及其逻辑机制的再发现

不管对科学发现进行语义分析，还是对科学发现活动本身进行历史探究，我们都会发现，科学发现除了具有社会、历史和心理上的属性外，它在本质上乃是新假说的产生、选择、修正、接受和解释的逻辑过程，其逻辑机制正是皮尔士与汉森等所倡导的溯因推理。而且，现代认知科学的新成果促进了溯因推理形式的不断完善，人们意识到在新假说产生与选择中背景理论与背景知识的重要作用，创新了溯因推理的推理形式，令人满意地回答了溯因推理何以能够以及如何能够成为科学发现的逻辑的问题。     

日朝关系的发展进程及其前景——以“绑架问题”为视角

日本与朝鲜是东北亚地区唯一没有正式建立外交关系的两个国家。发生在上世纪70-80年代的"绑架问题",与历史清算、朝鲜半岛无核化问题等成为两国实现关系正常化的核心障碍。日朝间虽就"绑架问题"进行了多次交涉,但双方却存在严重的认识分歧。"绑架问题"不仅是日本与朝鲜博弈的重要筹码,也是其介入朝鲜半岛事务的一个重要切入点,日朝邦交正常化的前景不容乐观。     

Abductive Reasoning as a Way of Worldmaking

The author deals with the operational core oflogic, i.e. its diverse procedures ofinference, in order to show that logicallyfalse inferences may in fact be right because –in contrast to logical rationality – theyactually enlarge our knowledge of the world.This does not only mean that logically trueinferences say nothing about the world, butalso that all our inferences are inventedhypotheses the adequacy of which cannot beproved within logic but only pragmatically. Inconclusion the author demonstrates, through therelationship between rule-following andrationality, that it is most irrational to wantto exclude the irrational: it may, at times, bemost rational to think and infer irrationally.Focussing on the operational aspects of knowingas inferring does away with the hiatus betweenlogic and life, cognition and the world(reality) – or whatever other dualism one wantsto invoke –: knowing means inferring, inferringmeans rule-governed interpreting, interpretingis a constructive, synthetic act, and aconstruction that proves adequate (viable) inthe ``world of experience', in life, in thepraxis of living, is, to the constructivistmind, knowledge. It is the practice of livingwhich provides the orienting standards forconstructivist thinking and its judgments ofviability. The question of truth is replaced bythe question of viability, and viabilitydepends on the (right) kind of experiential fit.     

Perceiving the Infinite and the Infinitesimal World: Unveiling and Optical Diagrams in Mathematics

Many important concepts of the calculus are difficult to grasp, and they may appear epistemologically unjustified. For example, how does a real function appear in “small” neighborhoods of its points? How does it appear at infinity? Diagrams allow us to overcome the difficulty in constructing representations of mathematical critical situations and objects. For example, they actually reveal the behavior of a real function not “close to” a point (as in the standard limit theory) but “in” the point. We are interested in our research in the diagrams which play an optical role –microscopes and “microscopes within microscopes”, telescopes, windows, a mirror role (to externalize rough mental models), and an unveiling role (to help create new and interesting mathematical concepts, theories, and structures). In this paper we describe some examples of optical diagrams as a particular kind of epistemic mediator able to perform the explanatory abductive task of providing a better understanding of the calculus, through a non-standard model of analysis. We also maintain they can be used in many other different epistemological and cognitive situations.     

一种基于引理推理的攻击过程分析方法

针对事后入侵响应,提出了一种基于引理推理的攻击过程分析方法。该方法利用被入侵网络安全漏洞间存在的推理关系建立被入侵网络的有色加权有向图。通过修改的Dijkstra算法计算入侵者可能的利用安全漏洞进行攻击的序列集合,以及序列相应的对入侵结果合理解释的支持度。依据支持度选取安全漏洞序列,并在网络设备和对应网络主机中寻求相关的支持证据,最终确定入侵者的攻击过程。实例表明该方法能够快速有效地实现网络攻击过程分析,并且具有良好的可扩展性以及能够识别出新的未知的攻击手段。     

How to Get It. Diagrammatic Reasoning as a Tool of Knowledge Development and its Pragmatic Dimension

Discussions concerning belief revision, theorydevelopment, and ``creativity' in philosophy andAI, reveal a growing interest in Peirce'sconcept of abduction. Peirce introducedabduction in an attempt to providetheoretical dignity and clarification to thedifficult problem of knowledge generation. Hewrote that ``An Abduction is Originary inrespect to being the only kind of argumentwhich starts a new idea' (Peirce, CP 2.26).These discussions, however, led to considerabledebates about the precise way in which Peirce'sabduction can be used to explain knowledgegeneration (cf. Magnani, 1999; Hoffmann, 1999).The crucial question is that of understandinghow we can get the new elements capableof enlarging our theories. Under thesecircumstances, it might be helpful to step outof the entanglement and reconsider the basis ofthe problem that originally triggered Peirce'sinterest in abduction. This will lead us toanother Peircean concept, that of ``diagrammaticreasoning,' which I discuss here in the contextof his ``pragmatism.' In this way, I hope toreach a better understanding of thecontribution of ``abduction' to the knowledgegeneration process.     

基于溯因问题求解的知识库更新

在一个广义的溯因问题框架下,讨论以逻辑公式形式表示的知识库的维护问题．使用表推演方法,检查知识库协调性,对知识库进行扩展、约减和修正,给出可行方法