ESTIMATION OF CHAIN REACTION BANKRUPTCY STRUCTURE BY CHANCE DISCOVERY METHO—WITH TIME ORDER METHOD AND DIRECTED KEYGRAPH

Chain reaction bankruptcy is regarded as common phenomenon and its effect is to be taken into account when credit risk portfolio is analyzed.But consideration and modeling of its effect leave much room for improvement.That is mainly because method for grasping relations among companies with limited data is underdeveloped.In this article,chance discovery method is applied to estimate industrial relations that are to include companies' relations that transmit chain reaction of bankruptcy. Time order method and directed KeyGraph are newly introduced to distinguish and express the time order among defaults that is essential information for the analysis of chain reaction bankruptcy.The steps for the data analysis are introduced and result of example analysis with default data in Kyushu, Japan,2005 is presented.The structure estimated by the new method is compared with the structure of actual account receivable holders of bankrupted companies for evaluation.     

基于非可加测度的一致性变异测度

建立在经典概率测度理论体系下的风险测度理论已经有了不少的研究成果,但在金融、保险市场中存在着许多的非可加风险,针对传统风险测度理论分析非可加风险的缺陷,研究了在Choquet积分理论基础上的风险变量空间为非可加测度空间的变异测度问题,证明了这种测度是共单调可加一致性的变异测度,给出了在Chance空间共单调可加一致性变异测度的表示定理,这些结论是对风险变异测度理论在非可加条件下的发展,对于分析非可加风险具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。     

供应链中二级分销网络优化设计的随机规划模型

给出供应链中二级分销网络优化设计的机会约束规划模型。模型中将各个分销中心的需求量和各工厂的生产能力设为随机参数，并进一步讨论如何将模型中的机会约束转化为确定性等价类问题。     

基于机会发现逻辑的多智能体系统形式化描述方法

MAS系统中agent的核心能力是其对未来行为的理性决策,因应用环境的开放性和动态变化而具有不确定性。机会发现理论可以在此类环境中发现对主体决策具有重要影响的事件或状态,可用于表达智能行为的协作计算模型。在此情况下,以机会发现理论和时态/模态逻辑为基础,采用基于Kripke框架的机会发现逻辑Lk来研究多智能体系统的形式化描述方法。对Lk的结构及语义进行了详细地描述,并验证了Lk具有可判性且能够在多项式级时间复杂度内实现。     

试论邓小平机遇思想的哲学意义

邓小平的机遇思想反映并体现了当代科学精神,深化和丰富了马克思主义哲学中关于历史必然性与偶然性、历史发展的内部因素与外部备件的辩证关系,历史规律性与主体选择性的统一,人类历史发展的不衡性、跳跃性、复杂多样性等方面的内容,对加快有中国特色的社会建设步伐具有重大的实践指导意义。     

Estimation of chain reaction bankruptcy structure by chance discovery method — With time order method and directed KeyGraph

Chain reaction bankruptcy is regarded as common phenomenon and its effect is to be taken into account when credit risk portfolio is analyzed. But consideration and modeling of its effect leave much room for improvement. That is mainly because method for grasping relations among companies with limited data is underdeveloped. In this article, chance discovery method is applied to estimate industrial relations that are to include companies＇ relations that transmit chain reaction of bankruptcy. Time order method and directed KeyGraph are newly introduced to distinguish and express the time order among defaults that is essential information for the analysis of chain reaction bankruptcy. The steps for the data analysis are introduced and result of example analysis with default data in Kyushu, Japan, 2005 is presented. The structure estimated by the new method is compared with the structure of actual account receivable holders of bankrupted companies for evaluation.     

Data crystallization applied for designing new products

It is only the observable part of the real world that can be stored in data. For such incomplete and ill-structured data, data crystallizing aims at presenting the hidden structure among events including unobservable events. This is realized by data crystallization, where dummy items, corresponding to potential existence ofunobservable events, are inserted to the given data. These dummy items and their relations with observable events are visualized by applying KeyGraph to the data with dummy items, like the crystallization of snow where dusts are involved in the formation of crystallization of water molecules. For tuning the granularity level of structure to be visualized, the tool of data crystallization is integrated with human＇s process of understanding significant scenarios in the real world. This basic method is expected to be applicable for various real world domains where previous methods of chance-discovery lead human to successful decision making. In this paper, we apply the data crystallization with human-interactive annealing （DCHA） to the design of products in a real company. The results show its effect to industrial decision making.     

The early history of chance in evolution

Work throughout the history and philosophy of biology frequently employs ‘chance’, ‘unpredictability’, ‘probability’, and many similar terms. One common way of understanding how these concepts were introduced in evolution focuses on two central issues: the first use of statistical methods in evolution (Galton), and the first use of the concept of “objective chance” in evolution (Wright). I argue that while this approach has merit, it fails to fully capture interesting philosophical reflections on the role of chance expounded by two of Galton's students, Karl Pearson and W.F.R. Weldon. Considering a question more familiar from contemporary philosophy of biology—the relationship between our statistical theories of evolution and the processes in the world those theories describe—is, I claim, a more fruitful way to approach both these two historical actors and the broader development of chance in evolution.     

信息网络对高校思想政治教育的影响及应对

网络技术的迅猛发展正在改变着当代大学生的学习、生活和思维方式，影响着大学生的世界观、人生观和价值观，高校思想政治教育者必须面对挑战，抓住机遇．将高校思想政治教育与网络技术的发展有机结合起来，开创高校思想政治教育的新局面。     

网络对高校德育的影响及其改革创新研究

网络时代的到来,不仅使整个社会的生产、生活和交往等方面产生全方位的变化,而且也对高校德育工作带来了重大而深刻的影响。一方面,网络给高校德育工作带来的机遇;另一方面,网络给高校德育工作带来的挑战。高校德育工作者应抓住机遇,转变观念,大胆创新,把握机遇,迎接挑战,促进网络时代高校德育工作的顺利开展。