Shorebird predation on benthic macroinvertebrates in an irrigation reservoir

American Falls Reservoir in southeastern Idaho is an irrigation reservoir used as an inland feeding stopover by many shorebird species. Six exclosure experiments were conducted during the 1990 drawdown period to investigate shorebird predation impact on benthic macroinvertebrate populations. The study sites differed in sediment composition, sediment slope, invertebrate densities, and shorebird abundance. Shorebird predation significantly affected invertebrate densities in only 1 of 6 experiments (Aberdeen Mouth). This site had higher sediment slope and a lower water recedence than other study sites, resulting in concentration of shorebird predation on a small area of newly exposed sediment. Shorebird predation had the greatest impact on medium size class chironomid larvae at Aberdeen Mouth. Our results suggest that inland sites such as American Falls Reservoir represent viable shorebird habitat and may be managed to insure consistent prey availability. Drawdown rate, sediment slope, invertebrate densities, and shorebird abundance are all important factors influencing shorebird predation. Monitoring shorebird abundance and predation impact on invertebrate densities may help in manipulating drawdown rate to provide adequate shorebird prey. Management of inland sites for shorebird use may become more important in the future as human encroachment in coastal areas continues.     

Nitrogen limitation constrains sustainability of ecosystem response to CO2

Enhanced plant biomass accumulation in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration could dampen the future rate of increase in CO2 levels and associated climate warming. However, it is unknown whether CO2-induced stimulation of plant growth and biomass accumulation will be sustained or whether limited nitrogen (N) availability constrains greater plant growth in a CO2-enriched world. Here we show, after a six-year field study of perennial grassland species grown under ambient and elevated levels of CO2 and N, that low availability of N progressively suppresses the positive response of plant biomass to elevated CO2. Initially, the stimulation of total plant biomass by elevated CO2 was no greater at enriched than at ambient N supply. After four to six years, however, elevated CO2 stimulated plant biomass much less under ambient than enriched N supply. This response was consistent with the temporally divergent effects of elevated CO2 on soil and plant N dynamics at differing levels of N supply. Our results indicate that variability in availability of soil N and deposition of atmospheric N are both likely to influence the response of plant biomass accumulation to elevated atmospheric CO2. Given that limitations to productivity resulting from the insufficient availability of N are widespread in both unmanaged and managed vegetation, soil N supply is probably an important constraint on global terrestrial responses to elevated CO2.     

An integrated bayesian vector auto regression and error correction model for forecasting electricity consumption and prices

The analysis and forecasting of electricity consumption and prices has received considerable attention over the past forty years. In the 1950s and 1960s most of these forecasts and analyses were generated by simultaneous equation econometric models. Beginning in the 1970s, there was a shift in the modeling of economic variables from the structural equations approach with strong identifying restrictions towards a joint time-series model with very few restrictions. One such model is the vector auto regression (VAR) model. It was soon discovered that the unrestricted VAR models do not forecast well. The Bayesian vector auto regression (BVAR) approach as well the error correction model (ECM) and models based on the theory of co integration have been offered as alternatives to the simple VAR model. This paper argues that the BVAF., ECM, and co integration models are simply VAR models with various restrictions placed on the coefficients. Based on this notion of a restricted VAR model, a four-step procedure for specifying VAR forecasting models is presented and then applied to monthly data on US electricity consumption and prices.     

Anti-phalloidine and anti-α-amanitine action of silybin in comparison with compounds similar to structural parts of silybin

Summary Silybin significantly antagonises the lethal poisoning of mice with -amanitine or phalloidine. In the same test, taxifolin, coniferyl alcohol, fisetin and (+)-catechin were not effective.