Enhancing survey‐based investment forecasts

We investigate the accuracy of capital investment predictors from a national business survey of South African manufacturing. Based on data available to correspondents at the time of survey completion, we propose variables that might inform the confidence that can be attached to their predictions. Having calibrated the survey predictors' directional accuracy, we model the probability of a correct directional prediction using logistic regression with the proposed variables. For point forecasting, we compare the accuracy of rescaled survey forecasts with time series benchmarks and some survey/time series hybrid models. In addition, using the same set of variables, we model the magnitude of survey prediction errors. Directional forecast tests showed that three out of four survey predictors have value but are biased and inefficient. For shorter horizons we found that survey forecasts, enhanced by time series data, significantly improved point forecasting accuracy. For longer horizons the survey predictors were at least as accurate as alternatives. The usefulness of the more accurate of the predictors examined is enhanced by auxiliary information, namely the probability of directional accuracy and the estimated error magnitude.     

Advances in anti-viral immune defence: revealing the importance of the IFN JAK/STAT pathway

Interferon-alpha (IFN-α) is a potent anti-viral cytokine, critical to the host immune response against viruses. IFN-α is first produced upon viral detection by pathogen recognition receptors. Following its expression, IFN-α embarks upon a complex downstream signalling cascade called the JAK/STAT pathway. This signalling pathway results in the expression of hundreds of effector genes known as interferon stimulated genes (ISGs). These genes are the basis for an elaborate effector mechanism and ultimately, the clearance of viral infection. ISGs mark an elegant mechanism of anti-viral host defence that warrants renewed research focus in our global efforts to treat existing and emerging viruses. By understanding the mechanistic role of individual ISGs we anticipate the discovery of a new “treasure trove” of anti-viral mediators that may pave the way for more effective, targeted and less toxic anti-viral therapies. Therefore, with the aim of highlighting the value of the innate type 1 IFN response in our battle against viral infection, this review outlines both historic and recent advances in understanding the IFN-α JAK/STAT pathway, with a focus on new research discoveries relating to specific ISGs and their potential role in curing existing and future emergent viral infections.     

The c-myc oncogene driven by immunoglobulin enhancers induces lymphoid malignancy in transgenic mice

Transgenic mice bearing the cellular myc oncogene coupled to the immunoglobulin mu or kappa enhancer frequently develop a fatal lymphoma within a few months of birth. Since the tumours represent represent both immature and mature B lymphocytes, constitutive c-myc expression appears to be highly leukaemogenic at several stages of B-cell maturation. These myc mice should aid study of lymphoma development, B-cell ontogeny and immunoglobulin regulation.     

A possible metabolic role for o-diphenoloxidase in Mycobacterium leprae

Among mycobacteria, Mycobacterium leprae is unique in its ability to oxidize a variety of diphenols to quinones in vitro. What physiologic role o-diphenoloxidase has in the organism remained unknown. Reducing substrates like NADPH, NADH and ascorbic acid reacted with the quinone formed from dopa (3,4-dihydroxyphenylalanine); the substrates were oxidized and the quinone was reduced back to diphenol in the process. Since the quinone undergoes reversible oxidation-reduction, diphenoloxidase might serve as an alternative respiratory mechanism in M. leprae for the utilization of other substrates, as has been reported in plants.     

Differential activation of myotube nuclei following exposure to an acetylcholine receptor-inducing factor

A glycoprotein purified from chick brain, of relative molecular mass 42,000, increases the rate of appearance of acetylcholine receptors (AChRs) on the surface of chick myotubes. RNase protection assays have shown that this AChR-inducing activity (ARIA) increases the amount of mRNA encoding the alpha-subunit of the AChR, with little or no effect on the amounts of gamma- and delta-mRNAs2. Here, we report that the mRNAs encoding the alpha- and gamma-subunits of the receptor detected by in situ hybridization are concentrated around nuclei in cultured myotubes. Consistent with previous results, ARIA selectively increased the amount of alpha-subunit mRNA, but we now find that all nuclei were not activated to the same extent, with a substantial number not responding at all. Assuming that ARIA is released by motor nerve terminals, our results indicate that only a subset of muscle nuclei are capable of contributing to the accumulation of AChRs at developing neuromuscular junctions.     

活性污泥过程MISO神经网络模型

用误差反向传递 ( BP)神经网络模拟了活性污泥过程 ,发现使用多输入多输出 ( MIMO)神经网络来模拟活性污泥过程变量间关系时 ,线性部分误差较小 ,非线性部分误差较大 ;但若用数个多输入单输出 ( MISO)神经网络的组合来模拟时 ,则对活性污泥过程的线性或非线性关系均能很好模拟