灰色残差修正模型在中长期负荷预测中的应用

电力系统负荷预测是电力系统发电计划的重要组成部分,也是电力系统经济运行的基础。本文在应用GM（1,1）模型的基础上,建立了两种应用残差对预测数据进修正的模型。实例表明本文提出的方法较传统GM（1,1）模型有更高的精度。     

Rapid evolution of the most luminous galaxies during the first 900 million years

The first 900 million years (Myr) to redshift z approximately 6 (the first seven per cent of the age of the Universe) remains largely unexplored for the formation of galaxies. Large samples of galaxies have been found at z approximately 6 (refs 1-4) but detections at earlier times are uncertain and unreliable. It is not at all clear how galaxies built up from the first stars when the Universe was about 300 Myr old (z approximately 12-15) to z approximately 6, just 600 Myr later. Here we report the results of a search for galaxies at z approximately 7-8, about 700 Myr after the Big Bang, using the deepest near-infrared and optical images ever taken. Under conservative selection criteria we find only one candidate galaxy at z approximately 7-8, where ten would be expected if there were no evolution in the galaxy population between z approximately 7-8 and z approximately 6. Using less conservative criteria, there are four candidates, where 17 would be expected with no evolution. This demonstrates that very luminous galaxies are quite rare 700 Myr after the Big Bang. The simplest explanation is that the Universe is just too young to have built up many luminous galaxies at z approximately 7-8 by the hierarchical merging of small galaxies.     

A large population of 'Lyman-break' galaxies in a protocluster at redshift z approximately 4.1

The most massive galaxies and the richest clusters are believed to have emerged from regions with the largest enhancements of mass density relative to the surrounding space. Distant radio galaxies may pinpoint the locations of the ancestors of rich clusters, because they are massive systems associated with 'overdensities' of galaxies that are bright in the Lyman-alpha line of hydrogen. A powerful technique for detecting high-redshift galaxies is to search for the characteristic 'Lyman break' feature in the galaxy colour, at wavelengths just shortwards of Lyalpha, which is due to absorption of radiation from the galaxy by the intervening intergalactic medium. Here we report multicolour imaging of the most distant candidate protocluster, TN J1338-1942 at a redshift z approximately 4.1. We find a large number of objects with the characteristic colours of galaxies at that redshift, and we show that this excess is concentrated around the targeted dominant radio galaxy. Our data therefore indicate that TN J1338-1942 is indeed the most distant cluster progenitor of a rich local cluster, and that galaxy clusters began forming when the Universe was only ten per cent of its present age.     

A candidate redshift z ≈ 10 galaxy and rapid changes in that population at an age of 500 Myr

Searches for very-high-redshift galaxies over the past decade have yielded a large sample of more than 6,000 galaxies existing just 900-2,000?million years (Myr) after the Big Bang (redshifts 6?>?z?>?3; ref. 1). The Hubble Ultra Deep Field (HUDF09) data have yielded the first reliable detections of z?≈?8 galaxies that, together with reports of a γ-ray burst at z?≈?8.2 (refs 10, 11), constitute the earliest objects reliably reported to date. Observations of z?≈?7-8 galaxies suggest substantial star formation at z?>?9-10 (refs 12, 13). Here we use the full two-year HUDF09 data to conduct an ultra-deep search for z?≈?10 galaxies in the heart of the reionization epoch, only 500?Myr after the Big Bang. Not only do we find one possible z?≈?10 galaxy candidate, but we show that, regardless of source detections, the star formation rate density is much smaller (～10%) at this time than it is just ～200?Myr later at z?≈?8. This demonstrates how rapid galaxy build-up was at z?≈?10, as galaxies increased in both luminosity density and volume density from z?≈?10 to z?≈?8. The 100-200?Myr before z?≈?10 is clearly a crucial phase in the assembly of the earliest galaxies.