The futility of decision making research

We have each spent more than 50 years doing research that has had little impact. Even more lamentable is that our field, judgment and decision making (JDM), has on the whole had little impact during that span. We attribute that failure to the use of methodologies that emphasize testing models rather than looking for differences in behavior. The “cognitive revolution” led the field astray, toward the goal of studying model fit rather than comparing observable results. With modeling as the goal, experimentation was stultified. Simple tasks became dominant. Although a poor metaphor for real decision making, the gambling paradigm has lasted forever because the inputs to the decision are known to the researcher and thus easily modeled.     

Protein kinase D inhibitor CRT0066101 suppresses bladder cancer growth in vitro and xenografts via blockade of the cell cycle at G2/M

The protein kinase D (PKD) family of proteins are important regulators of tumor growth, development, and progression. CRT0066101, an inhibitor of PKD, has antitumor activity in multiple types of carcinomas. However, the effect and mechanism of CRT0066101 in bladder cancer are not understood. In the present study, we show that CRT0066101 suppressed the proliferation and migration of four bladder cancer cell lines in vitro. We also demonstrate that CRT0066101 blocked tumor growth in a mouse flank xenograft model of bladder cancer. To further assess the role of PKD in bladder carcinoma, we examined the three PKD isoforms and found that PKD2 was highly expressed in eight bladder cancer cell lines and in urothelial carcinoma tissues from the TCGA database, and that short hairpin RNA (shRNA)-mediated knockdown of PKD2 dramatically reduced bladder cancer growth and invasion in vitro and in vivo, suggesting that the effect of the compound in bladder cancer is mediated through inhibition of PKD2. This notion was corroborated by demonstrating that the levels of phospho-PKD2 were markedly decreased in CRT0066101-treated bladder tumor explants. Furthermore, our cell cycle analysis by flow cytometry revealed that CRT0066101 treatment or PKD2 silencing arrested bladder cancer cells at the G2/M phase, the arrest being accompanied by decreases in the levels of cyclin B1, CDK1 and phospho-CDK1 (Thr161) and increases in the levels of p27^Kip1 and phospho-CDK1 (Thr14/Tyr15). Moreover, CRT0066101 downregulated the expression of Cdc25C, which dephosphorylates/activates CDK1, but enhanced the activity of the checkpoint kinase Chk1, which inhibits CDK1 by phosphorylating/inactivating Cdc25C. Finally, CRT0066101 was found to elevate the levels of Myt1, Wee1, phospho-Cdc25C (Ser216), Gadd45α, and 14-3-3 proteins, all of which reduce the CDK1-cyclin B1 complex activity. These novel findings suggest that CRT0066101 suppresses bladder cancer growth by inhibiting PKD2 through induction of G2/M cell cycle arrest, leading to the blockade of cell cycle progression.     

Degradation of the mitochondrial complex I assembly factor TMEM126B under chronic hypoxia

Cell stress such as hypoxia elicits adaptive responses, also on the level of mitochondria, and in part is mediated by the hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) 1α. Adaptation of mitochondria towards acute hypoxic conditions is reasonably well understood, while regulatory mechanisms, especially of respiratory chain assembly factors, under chronic hypoxia remains elusive. One of these assembly factors is transmembrane protein 126B (TMEM126B). This protein is part of the mitochondrial complex I assembly machinery. We identified changes in complex I abundance under chronic hypoxia, in association with impaired substrate-specific mitochondrial respiration. Complexome profiling of isolated mitochondria of the human leukemia monocytic cell line THP-1 revealed HIF-1α-dependent deficits in complex I assembly and mitochondrial complex I assembly complex (MCIA) abundance. Of all mitochondrial MCIA members, we proved a selective HIF-1-dependent decrease of TMEM126B under chronic hypoxia. Mechanistically, HIF-1α induces the E3-ubiquitin ligase F-box/WD repeat-containing protein 1A (β-TrCP1), which in turn facilitates the proteolytic degradation of TMEM126B. Attenuating a functional complex I assembly appears critical for cellular adaptation towards chronic hypoxia and is linked to destruction of the mitochondrial assembly factor TMEM126B.     

Prion protein cleavage fragments regulate adult neural stem cell quiescence through redox modulation of mitochondrial fission and SOD2 expression

Neurogenesis continues in the post-developmental brain throughout life. The ability to stimulate the production of new neurones requires both quiescent and actively proliferating pools of neural stem cells (NSCs). Actively proliferating NSCs ensure that neurogenic demand can be met, whilst the quiescent pool makes certain NSC reserves do not become depleted. The processes preserving the NSC quiescent pool are only just beginning to be defined. Herein, we identify a switch between NSC proliferation and quiescence through changing intracellular redox signalling. We show that N-terminal post-translational cleavage products of the prion protein (PrP) induce a quiescent state, halting NSC cellular growth, migration, and neurite outgrowth. Quiescence is initiated by the PrP cleavage products through reducing intracellular levels of reactive oxygen species. First, inhibition of redox signalling results in increased mitochondrial fission, which rapidly signals quiescence. Thereafter, quiescence is maintained through downstream increases in the expression and activity of superoxide dismutase-2 that reduces mitochondrial superoxide. We further observe that PrP is predominantly cleaved in quiescent NSCs indicating a homeostatic role for this cascade. Our findings provide new insight into the regulation of NSC quiescence, which potentially could influence brain health throughout adult life.     

Collaborative explanation,explanatory roles,and scientific explaining in practice

Scientific explanation is a perennial topic in philosophy of science, but the literature has fragmented into specialized discussions in different scientific disciplines. An increasing attention to scientific practice by philosophers is (in part) responsible for this fragmentation and has put pressure on criteria of adequacy for philosophical accounts of explanation, usually demanding some form of pluralism. This commentary examines the arguments offered by Fagan and Woody with respect to explanation and understanding in scientific practice. I begin by scrutinizing Fagan's concept of collaborative explanation, highlighting its distinctive advantages and expressing concern about several of its assumptions. Then I analyze Woody's attempt to reorient discussions of scientific explanation around functional considerations, elaborating on the wider implications of this methodological recommendation. I conclude with reflections on synergies and tensions that emerge when the two papers are juxtaposed and how these draw attention to critical issues that confront ongoing philosophical analyses of scientific explanation.     

Forecasting Longevity Gains Using a Seemingly Unrelated Time Series Model

In this paper a multivariate time series model using the seemingly unrelated time series equation (SUTSE) framework is proposed to forecast longevity gains. The proposed model is represented in state space form and uses Kalman filtering to estimate the unobservable components and fixed parameters. We apply the model both to male mortality rates in Portugal and the USA. Our results compare favorably, in terms of mean absolute percentage error, in‐sample and out‐of‐sample, to those obtained by the Lee–Carter method and some of its extensions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rediscovery of Disepyris semiruber (Kieffer) (Hymenoptera: Bethylidae) in Southern Africa,with first description of the male

Holepyris semiruber Kieffer is redescribed and illustrated based on freshly collected specimens. Holepyris semiruber var. striatipleura Kieffer is considered a colour variant of this species and therefore a junior synonym of H. semiruber syn. nov. This species is transferred to Disepyris, D. semiruber (Kieffer) comb. nov., based on the possession of a short 2r-rs&Rs vein in the fore wing and presence of long flat spine-shaped setae on the outer (posterior) surface of the protarsi. The male is described for the first time from new specimens collected in South Africa. This species is recorded for the first time from Namibia and Zimbabwe. All photographs are available on www.waspweb.org.     

Microbes,mathematics, and models

Microbial model systems have a long history of fruitful use in fields that include evolution and ecology. In order to develop further insight into modelling practice, we examine how the competitive exclusion and coexistence of competing species have been modelled mathematically and materially over the course of a long research history. In particular, we investigate how microbial models of these dynamics interact with mathematical or computational models of the same phenomena. Our cases illuminate the ways in which microbial systems and equations work as models, and what happens when they generate inconsistent findings about shared targets. We reveal an iterative strategy of comparative modelling in different media, and suggest reasons why microbial models have a special degree of epistemic tractability in multimodel inquiry.