Simulation of sea surface temperature changes in the Middle Pliocene warm period and comparison with reconstructions

The Middle Pliocene (ca 3.12–2.97 Ma) is a recent warm period in the Earth’s history. In many respects, the warmth of the Middle Pliocene is similar to the probable warm situation of the late 21st century predicted by climate models. Understanding the Middle Pliocene climate is important in predicting the future climate with global warming. Here, we used the latest reconstructions for the Middle Pliocene—Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 3—to simulate the Middle Pliocene ...     

温室效应会使地球温度上升多高?——关于平衡气候敏感度

工业化革命以来,人为温室气体排放所导致的全球气候变暖越来越受到重视.21世纪地球温升水平是当下各界关注的焦点,而其中的一个核心科学问题是平衡气候敏感度——即大气二氧化碳浓度加倍引起的辐射强迫所产生的全球平均温度变化——究竟是多少?2005年Science杂志在创刊125周年纪念专刊中对平衡气候敏感度进行了专门评述,本文对其进行解读,以期加深公众和科学界的理解.     

East Asian monsoon change for the 21st century: Results of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Forty-two climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 3 and 5 were first evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the present climatology of the East Asian winter (December-February) and summer (June-August) monsoons. The East Asian winter and summer monsoon changes over the 21st century were then projected using the results of 31 and 29 reliable climate models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) mid-range A1B scenario or the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) mid-low-range RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. Results showed that the East Asian winter monsoon changes little over time as a whole relative to the reference period 1980-1999. Regionally, it weakens (strengthens) north (south) of about 25°N in East Asia, which results from atmospheric circulation changes over the western North Pacific and Northeast Asia owing to the weakening and northward shift of the Aleutian Low, and from decreased north- west-southeast thermal and sea level pressure differences across Northeast Asia. In summer, monsoon strengthens slightly in East China over the 21st century as a consequence of an increased land-sea thermal contrast between the East Asian continent and the adjacent western North Pacific and South China Sea.     

Ensemble projection of 1―3℃ warming in China

Studies on the influences of climate change on biogeochemical cycles and on the key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change suggest that annual surface temperature rise of 1 ℃, 2℃ and 3℃ above the present level would lead to changes in extreme weather and climate events, food production, fresh water resources, biodiversity, human mortality, etc. Here two sets of simulations as performed with seventeen atmosphere-ocean general circulation models （AOGCMs） for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC AR4）, i.e. the model outputs from the 20th Century Climate in Coupled Models （20C3M） and from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） emission scenarios B1, A1B and A2, are used to analyze spatial and temporal characteristics of the above values in China over the 21st century. The results indicate that the rate of warming varies from region to region. The above values are reached much later （earlier） when emission amount is lower （higher）, and spread of the time when the lower （higher） value is exceeded is narrower （wider） among the three scenarios. As far as the spatial pattern is concerned, the above values are crossed much earlier in northern China and the Tibetan Plateau with respect to the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley and South China.     

Modeling the climate effects of different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau on Asian summer monsoon evolution

Considering the different uplifting time of different subregions of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau(TP),a series of numerical simulations have been conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model(CAM4) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research to explore the effects of the phased tectonic uplift of the Himalaya-TP on the evolution of Asian summer monsoons.The results show that the uplifts of the Himalaya and northern TP significantly affect the evolutions of South Asian summer monsoon and northern East Asian summer monsoon respectively.That is,the tectonic uplift of the Himalaya intensifies the South Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in South Asia,whereas the uplift of the northern TP intensifies the northern East Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in northern East Asia.Compared with previous simulations,current comparative analyses of modeling results for different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-TP help deepen our understanding of the evolutionary history of Asian monsoons.