Multi-model ensembles in climate science: Mathematical structures and expert judgements

Projections of future climate change cannot rely on a single model. It has become common to rely on multiple simulations generated by Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs), especially to quantify the uncertainty about what would constitute an adequate model structure. But, as Parker points out (2018), one of the remaining philosophically interesting questions is: “How can ensemble studies be designed so that they probe uncertainty in desired ways?” This paper offers two interpretations of what General Circulation Models (GCMs) are and how MMEs made of GCMs should be designed. In the first interpretation, models are combinations of modules and parameterisations; an MME is obtained by “plugging and playing” with interchangeable modules and parameterisations. In the second interpretation, models are aggregations of expert judgements that result from a history of epistemic decisions made by scientists about the choice of representations; an MME is a sampling of expert judgements from modelling teams. We argue that, while the two interpretations involve distinct domains from philosophy of science and social epistemology, they both could be used in a complementary manner in order to explore ways of designing better MMEs.     

Role of the ubiquitin–proteasome system in the regulation of P2Y13 receptor expression: impact on hepatic HDL uptake

The protective effect of high density lipoproteins (HDL) against atherosclerosis is mainly attributed to their capacity to transport excess cholesterol from peripheral tissues back to the liver for further elimination into the bile, a process called reverse cholesterol transport (RCT). Recently, the importance of the P2Y₁₃ receptor (P2Y₁₃-R) was highlighted in HDL metabolism since HDL uptake by the liver was decreased in P2Y₁₃-R deficient mice, which translated into impaired RCT. Here, we investigated for the first time the molecular mechanisms regulating cell surface expression of P2Y₁₃-R. When transiently expressed, P2Y₁₃-R was mainly detected in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) and strongly subjected to proteasome degradation while its homologous P2Y₁₂ receptor (P2Y₁₂-R) was efficiently targeted to the plasma membrane. We observed an inverse correlation between cell surface expression and ubiquitination level of P2Y₁₃-R in the ER, suggesting a close link between ubiquitination of P2Y₁₃-R and its efficient targeting to the plasma membrane. The C-terminus tail exchange between P2Y₁₃-R and P2Y₁₂-R strongly restored plasma membrane expression of P2Y₁₃-R, suggesting the involvement of the intra-cytoplasmic tail of P2Y₁₃-R in expression defect. Accordingly, proteasomal inhibition increased plasma membrane expression of functionally active P2Y₁₃-R in hepatocytes, and consequently stimulated P2Y₁₃-R-mediated HDL endocytosis. Importantly, proteasomal inhibition strongly potentiated HDL hepatic uptake (>200 %) in wild-type but not in P2Y₁₃-R-deficient mice, thus reinforcing the role of P2Y₁₃-R expression in regulating HDL metabolism. Therefore, specific inhibition of the ubiquitin–proteasome system might be a novel powerful HDL therapy to enhance P2Y₁₃-R expression and consequently promote the overall RCT.     

Cellular mechanisms responsible for cell-to-cell spreading of prions

Prions are infectious agents that cause fatal neurodegenerative diseases. Current evidence indicates that they are essentially composed of an abnormally folded protein (PrP^Sc). These abnormal aggregated PrP^Sc species multiply in infected cells by recruiting and converting the host PrP^C protein into new PrP^Sc. How prions move from cell to cell and progressively spread across the infected tissue is of crucial importance and may provide experimental opportunity to delay the progression of the disease. In infected cells, different mechanisms have been identified, including release of infectious extracellular vesicles and intercellular transfer of PrP^Sc-containing organelles through tunneling nanotubes. These findings should allow manipulation of the intracellular trafficking events targeting PrP^Sc in these particular subcellular compartments to experimentally address the relative contribution of these mechanisms to in vivo prion pathogenesis. In addition, such information may prompt further experimental strategies to decipher the causal roles of protein misfolding and aggregation in other human neurodegenerative diseases.     

The twins and the bucket: How Einstein made gravity rather than motion relative in general relativity

In publications in 1914 and 1918, Einstein claimed that his new theory of gravity in some sense relativizes the rotation of a body with respect to the distant stars (a stripped-down version of Newton's rotating bucket experiment) and the acceleration of the traveler with respect to the stay-at-home in the twin paradox. What he showed was that phenomena seen as inertial effects in a space-time coordinate system in which the non-accelerating body is at rest can be seen as a combination of inertial and gravitational effects in a (suitably chosen) space-time coordinate system in which the accelerating body is at rest. Two different relativity principles play a role in these accounts: (a) the relativity of non-uniform motion, in the weak sense that the laws of physics are the same in the two space-time coordinate systems involved; (b) what Einstein in 1920 called the relativity of the gravitational field, the notion that there is a unified inertio-gravitational field that splits differently into inertial and gravitational components in different coordinate systems. I provide a detailed reconstruction of Einstein's rather sketchy accounts of the twins and the bucket and examine the role of these two relativity principles. I argue that we can hold on to (b) but that (a) is either false or trivial.     

Constrained Multilevel Latent Class Models for the Analysis of Three-Way Three-Mode Binary Data

Probabilistic feature models (PFMs) can be used to explain binary rater judgements about the associations between two types of elements (e.g., objects and attributes) on the basis of binary latent features. In particular, to explain observed object-attribute associations PFMs assume that respondents classify both objects and attributes with respect to a, usually small, number of binary latent features, and that the observed object-attribute association is derived as a specific mapping of these classifications. Standard PFMs assume that the object-attribute association probability is the same according to all respondents, and that all observations are statistically independent. As both assumptions may be unrealistic, a multilevel latent class extension of PFMs is proposed which allows objects and/or attribute parameters to be different across latent rater classes, and which allows to model dependencies between associations with a common object (attribute) by assuming that the link between features and objects (attributes) is fixed across judgements. Formal relationships with existing multilevel latent class models for binary three-way data are described. As an illustration, the models are used to study rater differences in product perception and to investigate individual differences in the situational determinants of anger-related behavior.     

Radiation embryology

Summary Prenatal development, characterized by intensive cell proliferation, cell differentiation and cell migration, shows a high radiosensitivity. Therefore, radiation exposure of embryos and fetuses is of great concern for radiological protection and human health. Irradiation during gestation can cause death, growth disorders, malformations, functional impairment and malignant diseases in childhood. These effects are strongly dependent on the developmental stage at exposure and on the radiation dose. The first trimester of pregnancy is regarded as the period with the highest risk for malformation and cancer induction. The developing nervous system shows a special susceptibility to ionizing radiation over a long period and is therefore of great significance for risk estimation. Knowledge about radiation effects on prenatal development has been derived from animal experimentation and from the exposure of human embryos. There is evidence that doses between 1 and 10 cGy may lead to developmental anomalies and that the radiation response can be modified by additional factors.