Forward Rates,Monetary Policy and the Economic Cycle

The short end of the yield curve incorporates essential information to forecast central banks' decisions, but in a biased manner. This article proposes a new method to forecast the Fed and the European Central Bank's decision rate by correcting the swap rates for their cyclical economic premium, using an affine term structure model. The corrected yields offer a higher out‐of‐sample forecasting power than the yields themselves. They also deliver forecasts that are either comparable or better than those obtained with a factor‐augmented vector autoregressive model, underlining the fact that yields are likely to contain at least as much information regarding monetary policy as a dataset composed of economic data series. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantum reality: A pragmaticized neo-Kantian approach

Despite remarkable efforts, it remains notoriously difficult to equip quantum theory with a coherent ontology. Hence, Healey (2017, 12) has recently suggested that “quantum theory has no physical ontology and states no facts about physical objects or events”, and Fuchs et al. (2014, 752) similarly hold that “quantum mechanics itself does not deal directly with the objective world”. While intriguing, these positions either raise the question of how talk of ‘physical reality’ can even remain meaningful, or they must ultimately embrace a hidden variables-view, in tension with their original project. I here offer a neo-Kantian alternative. In particular, I will show how constitutive elements in the sense of Reichenbach (1920) and Friedman (1999, 2001) can be identified within quantum theory, through considerations of symmetries that allow the constitution of a ‘quantum reality’, without invoking any notion of a radically mind-independent reality. The resulting conception will inherit elements from pragmatist and ‘QBist’ approaches, but also differ from them in crucial respects. Furthermore, going beyond the Friedmanian program, I will show how non-fundamental and approximate symmetries can be relevant for identifying constitutive principles.     

Assembly and regulation of ASC specks

The inflammasome adapter ASC links activated inflammasome sensors to the effector molecule pro-caspase-1. Recruitment of pro-caspase-1 to ASC promotes the autocatalytic activation of caspase-1, which leads to the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines, such as IL-1β. Upon triggering of inflammasome sensors, ASC assembles into large helical fibrils that interact with each other serving as a supramolecular signaling platform termed the ASC speck. Alternative splicing, post-translational modifications of ASC, as well as interaction with other proteins can perturb ASC function. In several inflammatory diseases, ASC specks can be found in the extracellular space and its presence correlates with poor prognosis. Here, we review the role of ASC in inflammation, and focus on the structural mechanisms that lead to ASC speck formation, the regulation of ASC function during inflammasome assembly, and the importance of ASC specks in disease.     

Ablation of cyclase-associated protein 2 (CAP2) leads to cardiomyopathy

Cyclase-associated proteins are highly conserved proteins that have a role in the regulation of actin dynamics. Higher eukaryotes have two isoforms, CAP1 and CAP2. To study the in vivo function of CAP2, we generated mice in which the CAP2 gene was inactivated by a gene-trap approach. Mutant mice showed a decrease in body weight and had a decreased survival rate. Further, they developed a severe cardiac defect marked by dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) associated with drastic reduction in basal heart rate and prolongations in atrial and ventricular conduction times. Moreover, CAP2-deficient myofibrils exhibited reduced cooperativity of calcium-regulated force development. At the microscopic level, we observed disarrayed sarcomeres with development of fibrosis. We analyzed CAP2’s role in actin assembly and found that it sequesters G-actin and efficiently fragments filaments. This activity resides completely in its WASP homology domain. Thus CAP2 is an essential component of the myocardial sarcomere and is essential for physiological functioning of the cardiac system, and a deficiency leads to DCM and various cardiac defects.     

Epithelial-cell-intrinsic IKK-beta expression regulates intestinal immune homeostasis

Intestinal epithelial cells (IECs) provide a primary physical barrier against commensal and pathogenic microorganisms in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract, but the influence of IECs on the development and regulation of immunity to infection is unknown. Here we show that IEC-intrinsic IkappaB kinase (IKK)-beta-dependent gene expression is a critical regulator of responses of dendritic cells and CD4+ T cells in the GI tract. Mice with an IEC-specific deletion of IKK-beta show a reduced expression of the epithelial-cell-restricted cytokine thymic stromal lymphopoietin in the intestine and, after infection with the gut-dwelling parasite Trichuris, fail to develop a pathogen-specific CD4+ T helper type 2 (T(H)2) response and are unable to eradicate infection. Further, these animals show exacerbated production of dendritic-cell-derived interleukin-12/23p40 and tumour necrosis factor-alpha, increased levels of CD4+ T-cell-derived interferon-gamma and interleukin-17, and develop severe intestinal inflammation. Blockade of proinflammatory cytokines during Trichuris infection ablates the requirement for IKK-beta in IECs to promote CD4+ T(H)2 cell-dependent immunity, identifying an essential function for IECs in tissue-specific conditioning of dendritic cells and limiting type 1 cytokine production in the GI tract. These results indicate that the balance of IKK-beta-dependent gene expression in the intestinal epithelium is crucial in intestinal immune homeostasis by promoting mucosal immunity and limiting chronic inflammation.     

Genome-wide association study reveals three susceptibility loci for common migraine in the general population

Migraine is a common, heterogeneous and heritable neurological disorder. Its pathophysiology is incompletely understood, and its genetic influences at the population level are unknown. In a population-based genome-wide analysis including 5,122 migraineurs and 18,108 non-migraineurs, rs2651899 (1p36.32, PRDM16), rs10166942 (2q37.1, TRPM8) and rs11172113 (12q13.3, LRP1) were among the top seven associations (P < 5 × 10(-6)) with migraine. These SNPs were significant in a meta-analysis among three replication cohorts and met genome-wide significance in a meta-analysis combining the discovery and replication cohorts (rs2651899, odds ratio (OR) = 1.11, P = 3.8 × 10(-9); rs10166942, OR = 0.85, P = 5.5 × 10(-12); and rs11172113, OR = 0.90, P = 4.3 × 10(-9)). The associations at rs2651899 and rs10166942 were specific for migraine compared with non-migraine headache. None of the three SNP associations was preferential for migraine with aura or without aura, nor were any associations specific for migraine features. TRPM8 has been the focus of neuropathic pain models, whereas LRP1 modulates neuronal glutamate signaling, plausibly linking both genes to migraine pathophysiology.     

Modular and predictable assembly of porous organic molecular crystals

Nanoporous molecular frameworks are important in applications such as separation, storage and catalysis. Empirical rules exist for their assembly but it is still challenging to place and segregate functionality in three-dimensional porous solids in a predictable way. Indeed, recent studies of mixed crystalline frameworks suggest a preference for the statistical distribution of functionalities throughout the pores rather than, for example, the functional group localization found in the reactive sites of enzymes. This is a potential limitation for 'one-pot' chemical syntheses of porous frameworks from simple starting materials. An alternative strategy is to prepare porous solids from synthetically preorganized molecular pores. In principle, functional organic pore modules could be covalently prefabricated and then assembled to produce materials with specific properties. However, this vision of mix-and-match assembly is far from being realized, not least because of the challenge in reliably predicting three-dimensional structures for molecular crystals, which lack the strong directional bonding found in networks. Here we show that highly porous crystalline solids can be produced by mixing different organic cage modules that self-assemble by means of chiral recognition. The structures of the resulting materials can be predicted computationally, allowing in silico materials design strategies. The constituent pore modules are synthesized in high yields on gram scales in a one-step reaction. Assembly of the porous co-crystals is as simple as combining the modules in solution and removing the solvent. In some cases, the chiral recognition between modules can be exploited to produce porous organic nanoparticles. We show that the method is valid for four different cage modules and can in principle be generalized in a computationally predictable manner based on a lock-and-key assembly between modules.     

Human metabolic individuality in biomedical and pharmaceutical research

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many risk loci for complex diseases, but effect sizes are typically small and information on the underlying biological processes is often lacking. Associations with metabolic traits as functional intermediates can overcome these problems and potentially inform individualized therapy. Here we report a comprehensive analysis of genotype-dependent metabolic phenotypes using a GWAS with non-targeted metabolomics. We identified 37 genetic loci associated with blood metabolite concentrations, of which 25 show effect sizes that are unusually high for GWAS and account for 10-60% differences in metabolite levels per allele copy. Our associations provide new functional insights for many disease-related associations that have been reported in previous studies, including those for cardiovascular and kidney disorders, type 2 diabetes, cancer, gout, venous thromboembolism and Crohn's disease. The study advances our knowledge of the genetic basis of metabolic individuality in humans and generates many new hypotheses for biomedical and pharmaceutical research.