Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Neural Networks Considering Cointegration

This paper discusses techniques that might be helpful in predicting interest rates and tries to evaluate a new hybrid forecasting approach. Results of examining government bond yields in Germany and France reported in this study indicate that a hybrid forecasting approach which combines techniques of cointegration analysis with neural network (NN) forecasting models can produce superior results to the use of NN forecasting models alone. The findings documented in this paper could be a consequence of the fact that examining differenced data under certain conditions will lead to a loss of information and that the inclusion of the error correction term from the cointegration model can help to cope with this problem. The paper also discusses some possibly interesting directions for further research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

In-situ cosmogenic 36Cl denudation rates of carbonates in Guizhou karst area

This study quantifies surface denudation of carbonate rocks by the first application of in-situ cosmogenic36Cl in China. Concentrations of natural Cl and in-situ cosmogenic36Cl in bare carbonates from Guizhou karst areas were measured with isotope dilution by accelerator mass spectrometer. The Cl concentration varied from 16 to 206 ppm. The 36Cl concentrations were in range of (0.8-2.4)106 atom g-1 , resulting in total denudation rates of 20-50 mm ka-1 that averaged over a 104-105 a timescale. The 36Cl-denudation rates showed roughly a negative correlation with the local mean temperature. This preliminary observation may suggest the variations of proportions of chemical weathering and physical erosion in denudation process, depending upon local climatic conditions.     

Non-caspase proteases: triggers or amplifiers of apoptosis?

Caspases are the most important effectors of apoptosis, the major form of programmed cell death (PCD) in multicellular organisms. This is best reflected by the appearance of serious development defects in mice deficient for caspase-8, -9, and -3. Meanwhile, caspase-independent PCD, mediated by other proteases or signaling components has been described in numerous publications. Although we do not doubt that such cell death exists, we propose that it has evolved later during evolution and is most likely not designed to execute, but to amplify and speed-up caspase-dependent cell death. This review shall provide evidence for such a concept.     

Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve? evidence from the G7 countries

This paper uses monthly survey data for the G7 countries for the time period 1989–2007 to explore the link between expectations on nominal wages, prices and unemployment rates as suggested by the wage and price Phillips curves. Four major findings stand out. First, we find that survey participants trust in both types of Phillips curve relationships. Second, we find evidence in favor of nonlinearities in the price Phillips curve. Third, we take into account a kink in the price Phillips curve to indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve differs during the business cycle. We find strong evidence of this feature in the data which confirms recent theoretical discussions. Fourth, we employ our data to the expectations‐augmented Phillips curve model. The results suggest that professional forecasters adopt this model when forecasting macroeconomic variables. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Proliferation status defines functional properties of endothelial cells

Homeostasis of solid tissue is characterized by a low proliferative activity of differentiated cells while special conditions like tissue damage induce regeneration and proliferation. For some cell types it has been shown that various tissue-specific functions are missing in the proliferating state, raising the possibility that their proliferation is not compatible with a fully differentiated state. While endothelial cells are important players in regenerating tissue as well as in the vascularization of tumors, the impact of proliferation on their features remains elusive. To examine cell features in dependence of proliferation, we established human endothelial cell lines in which proliferation is tightly controlled by a doxycycline-dependent, synthetic regulatory unit. We observed that uptake of macromolecules and establishment of cell–cell contacts was more pronounced in the growth-arrested state. Tube-like structures were formed in vitro in both proliferating and non-proliferating conditions. However, functional vessel formation upon transplantation into immune-compromised mice was restricted to the proliferative state. Kaposi’s sarcoma-associated herpes virus (KSHV) infection resulted in reduced expression of endothelial markers. Upon transplantation of infected cells, drastic differences were observed: proliferation arrested cells acquired a high migratory activity while the proliferating counterparts established a tumor-like phenotype, similar to Kaposi Sarcoma lesions. The study gives evidence that proliferation governs endothelial functions. This suggests that several endothelial functions are differentially expressed during angiogenesis. Moreover, since proliferation defines the functional properties of cells upon infection with KSHV, this process crucially affects the fate of virus-infected cells.     

Driver mutations in histone H3.3 and chromatin remodelling genes in paediatric glioblastoma

Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is a lethal brain tumour in adults and children. However, DNA copy number and gene expression signatures indicate differences between adult and paediatric cases. To explore the genetic events underlying this distinction, we sequenced the exomes of 48 paediatric GBM samples. Somatic mutations in the H3.3-ATRX-DAXX chromatin remodelling pathway were identified in 44% of tumours (21/48). Recurrent mutations in H3F3A, which encodes the replication-independent histone 3 variant H3.3, were observed in 31% of tumours, and led to amino acid substitutions at two critical positions within the histone tail (K27M, G34R/G34V) involved in key regulatory post-translational modifications. Mutations in ATRX (α-thalassaemia/mental retardation syndrome X-linked) and DAXX (death-domain associated protein), encoding two subunits of a chromatin remodelling complex required for H3.3 incorporation at pericentric heterochromatin and telomeres, were identified in 31% of samples overall, and in 100% of tumours harbouring a G34R or G34V H3.3 mutation. Somatic TP53 mutations were identified in 54% of all cases, and in 86% of samples with H3F3A and/or ATRX mutations. Screening of a large cohort of gliomas of various grades and histologies (n = 784) showed H3F3A mutations to be specific to GBM and highly prevalent in children and young adults. Furthermore, the presence of H3F3A/ATRX-DAXX/TP53 mutations was strongly associated with alternative lengthening of telomeres and specific gene expression profiles. This is, to our knowledge, the first report to highlight recurrent mutations in a regulatory histone in humans, and our data suggest that defects of the chromatin architecture underlie paediatric and young adult GBM pathogenesis.     

A Bayesian time-varying autoregressive model for improved short-term and long-term prediction

Motivated by the application to German interest rates, we propose a time-varying autoregressive model for short-term and long-term prediction of time series that exhibit a temporary nonstationary behavior but are assumed to mean revert in the long run. We use a Bayesian formulation to incorporate prior assumptions on the mean reverting process in the model and thereby regularize predictions in the far future. We use MCMC-based inference by deriving relevant full conditional distributions and employ a Metropolis-Hastings within Gibbs sampler approach to sample from the posterior (predictive) distribution. In combining data-driven short-term predictions with long-term distribution assumptions our model is competitive to the existing methods in the short horizon while yielding reasonable predictions in the long run. We apply our model to interest rate data and contrast the forecasting performance to that of a 2-Additive-Factor Gaussian model as well as to the predictions of a dynamic Nelson-Siegel model.