Forecasting Andean rainfall and crop yield from the influence of El Nino on Pleiades visibility

Farmers in drought-prone regions of Andean South America have historically made observations of changes in the apparent brightness of stars in the Pleiades around the time of the southern winter solstice in order to forecast interannual variations in summer rainfall and in autumn harvests. They moderate the effect of reduced rainfall by adjusting the planting dates of potatoes, their most important crop. Here we use data on cloud cover and water vapour from satellite imagery, agronomic data from the Andean altiplano and an index of El Nino variability to analyse this forecasting method. We find that poor visibility of the Pleiades in June-caused by an increase in subvisual high cirrus clouds-is indicative of an El Nino year, which is usually linked to reduced rainfall during the growing season several months later. Our results suggest that this centuries-old method of seasonal rainfall forecasting may be based on a simple indicator of El Nino variability.     

一类非线性系统的稳定性

研究了一类非线性系统的输入输出稳定性问题，这类系统的特点是其模型为系统输出的线性拟函数。对非线性稳定性系统，利用稳定性的线性等价原理，提出了这一类非线性系统的稳定性判据；对非线性随机系统，给出了m阶均值意义下的稳定性定义，提出了一种二阶均值下的输入输出稳定性条件，给出了几个示例说明。