Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

工程造价专业教学改革探讨——以新余学院为例

提出了工程造价专业建设目标,对工程造价专业人才培养模式、教学计划、教学手段和课程考核等方面的改革进行全面阐述,结合当前工程造价专业改革的现状,提出了具有较强实用性和可行性的工程造价专业教学改革方案。     

自保温石膏基砌块传热模拟及结构优化

针对自保温石膏基砌块的热工性能,利用有限元分析软件ANSYS二维数值模拟砌块的传热过程,进行热流密度场分析并计算其传热系数,进一步探讨肋的结构形式及空气间层分布对砌块传热的影响从而对砌块结构形式进行优化。采用防护热箱法对优化后的砌块模型进行实验研究检测其传热系数,并利用加水平和竖向灰缝的三维模型模拟真实实验环境下砌块的传热过程。研究结果表明:薄空气间层与发泡石膏填充材料相结合的石膏基砌块为优化后的砌块结构形式。三维数值模拟结果与实验检测结果较吻合。     

基因编辑婴儿的伦理、法律和社会蕴含

 同试管婴儿、克隆人、商业化代孕、干细胞治疗等医疗新技术引发的伦理争议相比，贺建奎基因编辑婴儿事件引发的关注更大、社会反响更为猛烈。探讨贺建奎基因编辑婴儿事件引发国际国内热议的原因，讨论了基因编辑婴儿的伦理、法律和社会蕴含。建议明确界定基因编辑技术的适用对象和范围，建立健全新型医疗技术临床应用的伦理审查和监管体系，提升全社会的伦理意识。     

基于多变量希尔伯特频域模型的癫痫发作预测

癫痫发作具有突发性和反复性,对患者生命安全构成巨大威胁.为了对癫痫发作进行有效地预测,提出了多变量希尔伯特频域模型的癫痫发作预测方法.将希尔伯特边际谱、希尔伯特边际谱的变化方向和希尔伯特加权频率组成一个三维特征向量作为多变量希尔伯特频域模型,输入到支持相量机中,实现癫痫的发作预测,最后采用癫痫发作预测特征方法对预测结果进行评估.实验结果表明:采用多变量希尔伯特频域模型分析方法预测δ波和θ波的癫痫发作,癫痫预测范围在30~45 min,患者有足够的时间采取措施应对;癫痫发作周期在5~10 min,缩短患者等待时间,降低焦虑程度;与多种相关方法进行比较,该方法具有较低的错误预报率和较高的预测敏感度.     

浅谈功率因数的补偿及其应用

根据我国当前电力系统运行情况，对电网无功功率补偿的必要性及通用补偿方法及其装置进行了具体阐述。     

浅谈饭店"环境入世"

环境恶化，生态平衡破坏，使对可持续发展的研究愈来愈重要．通过对饭店经营观念的转变。创建绿色饭店环境成本和效益的分析，提出实现饭店可持续发展的途径．