The material theory of induction and the epistemology of thought experiments

John D. Norton is responsible for a number of influential views in contemporary philosophy of science. This paper will discuss two of them. The material theory of induction claims that inductive arguments are ultimately justified by their material features, not their formal features. Thus, while a deductive argument can be valid irrespective of the content of the propositions that make up the argument, an inductive argument about, say, apples, will be justified (or not) depending on facts about apples. The argument view of thought experiments claims that thought experiments are arguments, and that they function epistemically however arguments do. These two views have generated a great deal of discussion, although there hasn't been much written about their combination. I argue that despite some interesting harmonies, there is a serious tension between them. I consider several options for easing this tension, before suggesting a set of changes to the argument view that I take to be consistent with Norton's fundamental philosophical commitments, and which retain what seems intuitively correct about the argument view. These changes require that we move away from a unitary epistemology of thought experiments and towards a more pluralist position.     

Epistemic benefits of the material theory of induction

C. D. Broad famously labelled the problem of providing our inductive practices with a proper justification “the scandal of philosophy” (Broad, 1952). Recently, John Norton has provided a dissolution of this problem (2014). According to Norton, inductive inference is grounded in particular facts obtaining within particular domains (J. Norton, 2003b, 2010, 2014). Because the material theory does not involve a universal schema of induction, Norton claims it dissolves the problem of induction (which implies that such universal schemas cannot be justified).In this paper, I critically evaluate Norton's dissolution. In particular, I argue that the problem of induction is an epistemological problem, that Norton's material theory entails an externalist epistemology, and that it is a common feature of such epistemologies that they dissolve the problem of induction. The upshot is that the material theory is not unique in its ability to reap the specifically epistemic benefits of dissolving the problem of induction, and thus that the epistemic advantages of the material theory over extant alternatives in this regard are fewer than it may appear at first sight.     

基于热中子探测评价裂缝的示踪剂特性研究

针对裂缝热中子示踪探测方法,从中子双组扩散理论入手结合蒙特卡洛数值模拟方法,分析压裂前后地层热中子分布影响因素,并模拟不同类型示踪剂及含量的热中子裂缝响应规律,筛选最佳示踪剂并给出其在支撑剂中含量的上、下限。结果表明:压裂前后热中子计数变化量主要受裂缝宽度和标记支撑剂中示踪剂含量的影响;钆对裂缝宽度变化反应最灵敏,钆元素是作为标记支撑剂的最佳示踪元素;随支撑剂中Gd 2O 3含量的增加,热中子计数率降低,热中子计数变化量D增加;示踪剂中氧化钆的上、下限值随裂缝宽度呈指数降低,且当裂缝宽度为1.0 cm时,Gd 2O 3的质量分数上限为0.68%,下限为0.03%。     

基于多孔介质模型的储层裂缝孔隙度计算方法

针对裂缝性储层裂缝孔隙度定量计算的难题,提出了一种基于多孔介质模型的储层裂缝孔隙度计算方法。通过定义孔隙纵横比谱函数表征岩石裂缝分布特征及对岩石宏观岩石物理特征的影响,并代入多孔介质模型中,建立含裂缝条件下多孔介质模型。理论正演表明,孔隙纵横比谱分布特征与岩石体积模量变化一一对应,通过建立岩石模量反演函数,利用现场阵列声波测井资料实现孔隙纵横比谱定量反演,进而计算裂缝孔隙度。应用结果表明,计算的裂缝孔隙度能够较好地反映储层裂缝发育情况,与电成像测井计算结果吻合较好,文中方法所计算的裂缝孔隙度符合实际生产情况,为裂缝孔隙度计算提供一种新的途径,扩展了阵列声波测井应用范围。     

基于特征曲线重构的波阻抗反演在复杂储层预测中的应用

在目前储层预测方法中,基于测井约束的波阻抗反演作为一项关键技术,应用效果较为良好。对于其反演效果的优劣,声波测井资料品质具有显著影响。当声波特征曲线对有效储层与围岩差异的敏感性较低时,常规测井约束反演的结果对储层刻画能力会有所不足,而测井特征曲线重构技术则可以有效改善储层预测效果,提高砂体边界刻画的精度。本文在研究区实际地质特征分析的基础上,依据现有地震、测井资料,并结合储层预测需要,从声波测井资料的特点出发,通过特征曲线重构方法,将自然伽马、自然电位、电阻率等对岩性较为敏感的特征曲线与声波资料融合,最终在重构后的声波曲线基础上,通过测井约束波阻抗反演来表征储层。实际应用结果表明砂、泥岩得到良好区分,储层描述明显改善,为后续生产开发提供了有效指导。     

电梯轿厢无随行电缆非接触供电系统设计

电梯轿厢随行电缆有碍美观且需要定期维护,为了摆脱对随行电缆的依赖,设计了一种新颖的电梯轿厢无随行电缆非接触供电系统,采用高频松耦合变压器实现电能的非接触传输.电梯轿厢升降运动时利用蓄电池的储能供电,非接触供电系统处于关闭状态;在每个楼层平层静止时,系统收到电梯平层信号,系统启动供电并对蓄电池充电.这种供电方式可以提高供电效率,减少高频电磁污染.分析了松耦合变压器的等效电路模型,研究了工作气隙、工作频率、补偿电容等对供电效率的影响.根据系统要求设计了简单高效的大功率开关电源充电器,稳压效果好,可靠性高.     

基于磁耦合谐振的线圈优化设计

磁耦合谐振无线能量传输技术近几年已经引起了广泛的关注和研究,但因为收发线圈体积较大,对于小功率设备的实际应用存在一定的困难.针对该问题,首先建立无线能量传输模型,从理论角度分析线圈Q值在能量传输中的作用;其次,通过三维电磁仿真软件HFSS对手持设备尺寸大小的平面螺旋电感进行优化设计;最后搭建一个小型无线能量传输系统,实现距离为0.1m、传输效率为60%、接收功率为5 W的能量传输,为小体积线圈在小功率设备中的应用提供参考.     

随钻双感应测井仪器刻度响应研究

介绍一种随钻双感应测井仪器,利用三维有限元方法模拟实际仪器结构对仪器响应的影响,针对该仪器设计刻度环和刻度水箱,并探讨最优刻度环参数和水箱刻度校正系数。结果表明:钻铤和反射层是导致仪器响应非线性变化的主要因素,磁环主要导致仪器响应幅值增大。通过刻度环或水箱刻度,仪器响应和真实地层电导率具有较宽的线性响应范围。模拟结果可为随钻双感应测井仪器设计和刻度提供理论参考。     

基于连通导电理论和HB方程的骨架导电纯岩石电阻率模型

针对现有导电模型很难描述骨架含导电矿物黄铁矿的岩石导电规律的难题,利用骨架完全由导电颗粒组成的人造岩样以及骨架部分由导电颗粒组成的天然和人造岩样的岩电实验数据,研究水电阻率和导电颗粒体积分数变化对岩石导电规律的影响,得出骨架导电纯岩石的地层因素与孔隙度及电阻增大系数与含水饱和度在双对数坐标上为非线性关系,随水电导率减小或导电颗粒体积分数增大,地层因素和电阻增大系数值降低。根据骨架导电纯岩石的组成,结合连通导电理论特点,将骨架导电纯岩石分为不导电骨架相、导电骨架相和自由流体相。基于连通导电方程只能描述单一导电相的两相混合介质导电规律而HB方程能描述两相均导电的混合介质导电规律的特点,基于连通导电理和HB方程建立骨架导电纯岩石电阻率模型。结果表明,骨架导电纯岩石电阻率模型预测的地层因素与孔隙度以及电阻增大系数与含水饱和度的理论关系与实验规律相符且模型满足物理约束,该模型能够描述骨架完全和部分由导电矿物组成的纯岩石的导电规律,可用于定量评价骨架导电低阻油层的饱和度。     

P油田H油组参数解释研究

P油田H油组属于河流——三角洲沉积体系的延伸,具有河流与湖泊双重作用的特点,地层非均质性明显,油水分布复杂,原参数解释标准与岩心分析及试油结论符合度偏低.针对这一问题,利用取心、录井、测井、试油、测试等资料,探究岩电对应规律,优化参数,建立适合研究区的孔隙度、渗透率测井解释模型,为下一步油藏开发调整提供可靠的地质依据.