基于地理加权回归模型的浙江省台风经济损失影响因子分布规律研究

利用地理加权回归（ＧＷＲ）方法,引入地理空间要素,对台风经济损失的空间波动趋势进行分析．研究了台风登陆次数、最大过程降雨量、中心最大风速、数字 高 程（ＤＥＭ）、人 口、ＧＤＰ、可用耕地等气象因素和社会经济因素与浙江省台风灾害直接经济损失的关系,总结出浙江省台风直接经济损失存在由北向南、由西向东逐渐 增 加 的 趋 势,可 以 为 台风风险管理工作提供一定的辅助决策依据．      

汶川地震中的心理台风眼效应

选取受汶川地震影响程度不同的3个地区(汉旺、攀枝花及北京)共494名被试, 使用问卷调查的方法检验心理台风眼效应。结果发现, 三地民众在对余震的风险认知、风险行为倾向上表现出不同程度的心理台风眼效应, 而状态焦虑却表现出相反的趋势, 同时发现处于灾难边缘地带的攀枝花民众表现出最为矛盾的心理反应。最后对心理台风眼效应的情境条件和边缘带效应进行了讨论。     

基于多卫星和Argo浮标观测海洋上层对台风婷婷的响应

利用多卫星平台和Argo浮标观测资料,分析研究了2004年台风婷婷(Tingting)引起海洋上层温盐结构和叶绿素a浓度的时空变化特征.结果发现,台风婷婷过境时沿着其路径诱发强烈的上升流,混合层内海水混合加剧,冷涡加强,出现了大范围的海表温度降低和叶绿素a增加现象.台风前的冷涡区域,出现大面积的"冷斑"和"藻华带",且维持时间更长;而在台风前的暖涡区域内,则生物物理响应不明显.因此,先前的海洋环境对于台风引起的上层生物物理响应具有重要意义.     

浙江省超强台风防御方案及台风危害研究

介绍了超强台风的定义和登陆浙江省台风的特征,论述了狂风对浙江省农业、房屋、市政交通设施、电力设施、通信设施、城市绿地、海上船只等的危害及原因,研究了狂风致灾的机理,提出了建构防强风管理体系的措施。     

福建省台风灾害风险区划研究

根据自然灾害系统理论,选取致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境稳定性、承灾体脆弱性以及灾后恢复性为福建省台风灾害风险评价指标,采用福建省台风灾害数据库资料和福建省社会经济数据库资料,应用综合加权法得出福建省各县域的风险度数值,将福建省台风灾害风险分为三个不同风险等级的区域,并针对风险分区提出对应的防灾减灾对策。     

台风来时怎样自救

台风来临时不但有强大的风暴，还夹带暴雨，危害很大，台风期间，尽量不要外出行走，倘若不得不外出时，一定要穿上轻便防水的鞋子和颜色鲜艳、紧身合体的衣裤，减少受风面积。     

Effect of surface waves on air-sea momentum flux in high wind conditions for typhoons in the South China Sea

The WAVEWATCH-III wave model is implemented in the South China Sea to investigate the air-sea momentum flux in high wind conditions during 23 passages of typhoon occurred in 2005. The wave model is driven by the reanalyzed surface winds assimilated by several meteorologic data sources. The friction velocity was calculated and the relationships between different air-sea momentum param- eters were studied. The results show that the drag coefficient decreases with the wave age generally and levels off for wind speeds higher than 35 m/s under typhoon wind forcing. The spatial variations of air-sea momentum flux parameters in high wind conditions forced by typhoons are completely different from those at weak wind speeds and significantly depend on the relative position from the typhoon center.     

Diagnostic analysis of the asymmetric structure of the simulated landfalling typhoon “Haitang”

The landfalling processes of Typhoon ＂Haitang＂ near Lianjiang of Fujian Province of China from 00 UTC 19 to 12 UTC 20 July 2005 were reproduced by using the nesting non-hydrostatic WRF model and data assimilation technology （Level II Doppler radar data of Changle of Fujian Province are assimilated to the simulation every one hour from 01 to 06 UTC 19 July 2005）. The mesoscale structure and evolution of the typhoon before, during, and after its landfall were discussed. The simulation data show that the assimilation exper- iment with the high temporal-and-spatial-resolution radar radial velocity and reflectivity data can produce much better simulation of the typhoon track, intensity evolution and landfalling location than the control experiment without assimilating radar data. By using the assimilation experimental data, the mesoscale fine-mesh structure and evolution before and after typhoon landfall were analyzed. Because of the influence of sea-land thermodynamic difference, two asymmetric convective regions were located at ocean and land, respectively. To better understand and investigate the asymmetric-structure characteristics of the landfalling typhoon, several dynamical diagnostic tools, the helicity （H）, the moist potential vorticity （MPV）, the convective vorticity vector （CVV）, the moist vorticity vector （MVV）, which are associated with the development of strong convections, are introduced. Further analysis illuminates that the distribu- tions of these physical diagnostic parameters are totally asymmetric, and subsequently, the associated convections also show distinct asymmetry.     

三维变分映射资料同化技术在台风数值模拟上的应用实验

台风移动路径及登陆是台风预报中的关键问题,提高台风初始分析场质量是改进台风数值预报效果的重要途径之一．文中首先对目前国际上占优势的变分资料同化方法：三维变分资料同化（3DVar）、四维变分资料同化（4DVar）和作者近年提出的三维变分映射资料同化方法（3DVM）的理论进行了简单的比较分析;然后基于MM5-4DVar的系统构建了MM5-3DVM系统;最后以9914号台风Dan为例,利用该系统设计了17组同化卫星AMSU-A反演的温度和风场资料及人造涡旋海平面气压场资料的数值实验,初步探讨3DVM技术对提高台风初始场质量的有效性．与4DVar的对照实验表明：通过文中3DVM系统得到的初始台风结构相对更合理,更能改善台风的模拟,特别是路径预报．敏感性研究表明：初始涡旋的大小、同化时间窗口的长短和信息量的强弱对台风路径和强度变化的敏感性,3DVM比4DVar技术更为稳定．特别地,3DVM利用历史资料只需低廉的计算代价进行初始化,这是符合业务预报需求的．     

湿Q矢量分析法在台风“圣帕”暴雨过程中的应用

应用非地转湿Q矢量理论,对2007年8月18~25日台风“圣帕“登陆后造成的大范围持续性暴雨过程进行诊断分析.结果表明:非地转湿Q矢量流场的辐合区是大气垂直运动发展较强的定性指标,与24 h内暴雨落区的对应关系较好;低层等压面上非地转湿Q矢量辐合中心的移动可比台风低压的行进提前24 h.同时,700 hPa和850 hPa的Q矢量辐合中心与强降水中心相对应,尤其是700 hPa湿Q矢量散度辐合中心在暴雨出现前12~24 h就表现出较好的指示意义.非地转湿Q矢量散度的垂直分布随高度倾斜伸展,Q矢量辐合区与辐散区自低层到高层呈带状相间分布的,促使上升运动更加激烈和持久,从而容易形成强的降水.非地转湿Q矢量最大辐合区并不在降水中心的正上方,而是超前的,并且越往高层超前越明显,因此Q矢量散度的垂直分布对强降水具有预报意义.