哈密翼龙及其3D胚胎化石研究

 翼龙是地球上第一类飞向天空也是唯一绝灭的飞行脊椎动物，人类对其产卵繁殖、生长发育和生活习性等方面的了解还十分有限。本文介绍了一件超过200枚哈密翼龙蛋、胚胎和骨骼化石三位一体保存的重要标本，包括16枚翼龙蛋含有三维立体的胚胎化石。针对这件全世界首次发现的3D翼龙胚胎，研究提出哈密翼龙具有相对早熟的胚胎发育模式，其后肢发育速度较前肢快，孵化之后只能走不能飞；胚胎发育期间牙齿尚未萌出，出生后还需要父母照料；从胚胎到亚成年都具有快速生长的骨骼结构；显示哈密翼龙具有群居的生活习性，白垩纪的湖泊风暴导致其集群死亡并快速埋藏。     

Mechanisms,the interventionist theory,and the ability to use causal relationships

In the area of social science, in particular, although we have developed methods for reliably discovering the existence of causal relationships, we are not very good at using these to design effective social policy. Cartwright argues that in order to improve our ability to use causal relationships, it is essential to develop a theory of causation that makes explicit the connections between the nature of causation, our best methods for discovering causal relationships, and the uses to which these are put. I argue that Woodward's interventionist theory of causation is uniquely suited to meet Cartwright's challenge. More specifically, interventionist mechanisms can provide the bridge from ‘hunting causes’ to ‘using them’, if interventionists (i) tell us more about the nature of these mechanisms, and (ii) endorse the claim that it is these mechanisms—or whatever constitutes them—that make causal claims true. I illustrate how having an understanding of interventionist mechanisms can allow us to put causal knowledge to use via a detailed example from organic chemistry.     

Cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator—emerging regulator of cancer

Mutations of cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) cause cystic fibrosis, the most common life-limiting recessive genetic disease among Caucasians. CFTR mutations have also been linked to increased risk of various cancers but remained controversial for a long time. Recent studies have begun to reveal that CFTR is not merely an ion channel but also an important regulator of cancer development and progression with multiple signaling pathways identified. In this review, we will first present clinical findings showing the correlation of genetic mutations or aberrant expression of CFTR with cancer incidence in multiple cancers. We will then focus on the roles of CFTR in fundamental cellular processes including transformation, survival, proliferation, migration, invasion and epithelial–mesenchymal transition in cancer cells, highlighting the signaling pathways involved. Finally, the association of CFTR expression levels with patient prognosis, and the potential of CFTR as a cancer prognosis indicator in human malignancies will be discussed.     

Comparison of breeding biology aspects of Fluvicola nengeta (Aves: Tyrannidae) between two nesting sites

Fluvicola nengeta is an insectivorous bird that belongs to the Tyrannidae family, which lives close to bodies of water and can occur in urban areas as well. It makes use of natural and man-made substrates to build its nests. This study aims at describing the reproductive biology of F. nengeta by comparing nests built on vegetation and man-made structures as to their shapes, nest dimensions, building materials, distance from bodies of water and reproductive success. Forty-four nests were found, where 30 were located in vegetation and 14 on man-made structures. Nests did not exhibit any single pattern and were divided into three distinct shapes: closed/globular/base; closed/ovoid/base (45.5%; n = 5 for both) and low cup/base (9%; n = 1). Nests built on man-made structures exhibited a larger amount of anthropic material, such as plastic and paper, instead of plant-derived materials. Nests on man-made structures were found to be higher up from the ground (459.8 ± 46.9 m) and farther from water (232.9 ± 54.8 m) in comparison to those on vegetation (92.2 ± 28.6 m and 7.3 ± 4.7 m, respectively), aside from exhibiting a higher Mayfield reproductive success (37%) when compared to nests built on vegetation (34%). The estimated values of the daily survival rate (DSR) for vegetation nests were 0.997 for the incubation period and 0.928 for the nestling period. In man-made structure nests, DSRs were 0.968 and 0.964, respectively, during the incubation and nestling periods. The period survival rate (PSR) of nests in vegetation was significantly higher than the PSRs of nests in man-made structures during the incubation period. DSRs did not differ between incubation and nestling periods for either nesting sites.     

三层级设施选址-路径规划问题建模及算法研究

基于有向图针对物流网络三层级设施选址——路径规划问题(3E-LRP),建立了数学模型,并提出了量子进化算法(QEA)与遗传算法(GA)协同的双智能算法集成求解方案.QEA算法负责设施选址(FLP)和设施分配(FAP)优化问题,将得到的FLP和FAP方案传递给GA进行路径规划(VRP)优化,GA将优化后的路径规划方案反馈给QEA,双智能算法协同完成3E-LRP系统优化.本文提出了基于可达配送区域的搜索策略和基于路径长度为权重的设施分配优化策略以提高算法效率.实例计算表明,提出的数学模型和组合智能算法可有效解决3E-LRP,为ME-LRP提供了理论与方法指导.     

定期保障模式下舰船编队携行备件配置优化

舰船编队海上任务期间,需要制定合理的携行备件方案以提高装备的战备完好性.针对海上定期保障模式下,将多层级复杂装备结构等效为单层级,提出一种备件需求分析与配置优化的近似方法,根据系统可靠性理论,建立了多阶段任务下的装备可用度评估模型,采用基于补给周期的分段求解方法.通过算例,采用边际优化算法得到携行备件优化方案,对模型结果进行了仿真验证,结果表明:模型计算结果与仿真结果吻合,两种取整方式下的方案费效比相当,采用定期保障模式能够提高备件供应效率,进一步增强备件方案的鲁棒性.     

随机和认知混合不确定系统的全局灵敏度分析方法

为计算具有随机不确定性和认知不确定性的混合不确定系统灵敏度,提出一种基于证据理论和条件概率理论的全局灵敏度分析方法.用证据理论对认知不确定性变量进行表征,并提出两种基于证据理论的随机采样方法,包括一次随机抽样法和二次随机抽样法.运用条件概率理论,提出存在认知不确定性条件下混合不确定系统的Sobol'全局灵敏度指标,经过理论推导给出一阶灵敏度及总灵敏度的计算公式,并设置单循环的拟蒙特卡罗方法实现灵敏度的近似数值计算.开发了灵敏度分析程序,并给出了典型应用实例.实例表明,新方法的分析结果正确,计算工作量可控.     

基于聚类方法和神经网络的非线性系统多模型自适应控制

针对具有参数跳变的非线性系统,联合聚类算法和神经网络提出新的多模型自适应控制方法。首先对系统的输入输出数据进行模糊聚类,然后基于递推最小二乘法建立多个固定模型。为提高系统的暂态性能,同时建立两个自适应模型,并在此基础上设计鲁棒自适应控制器。此外,为了补偿系统的非线性部分,建立非线性预测模型,并设计非线性神经网络自适应控制器。所提方法可使控制切换系统具有稳定性保证。最后,通过性能指标对控制器进行平滑切换。仿真结果表明,所提方法能够保证系统具有良好的控制性能。     

租赁设备的状态维修决策建模与优化

随着物联网技术飞速发展,租赁设备大多安装有传感系统,可以及时地对设备关键部件和整体运行状态进行检测,进而可基于设备的健康状态为其安排更为合理的维修方案,在降低租赁商维修费用的同时,尽量少地干预客户的正常施工,并且保证租赁设备在客户施工场所的可靠运行.本文研究了基于状态检测的租赁设备的最优维修问题,研究中引入了顺序状态检测,定义了基于状态的控制限维修策略,并建立了以维修开销最小为目标的解析模型,以决策系统最优的检测间隔和预防维修阈值.除检测、维修等基本费用外,模型中还进一步考虑了租赁系统的故障罚金和故障后维修超时罚金.在模型的求解中,推导了维修干预下设备任意时刻的检测概率和状态概率分布,作为模型构建和求解的依据.数值实验结果验证并表明了面向租赁设备的基于状态的维修策略的有效性.     

变化环境与人类活动对城市水文与水动力过程影响研究进展

随着城市化的快速发展，由此引发的洪涝灾害问题突出，相关研究需求日趋迫切. 分别从降水时空变异性、下垫面空间变异性、人工基础设施等3个方面，系统阐述变化环境与人类活动共同作用下的城市水文与水动力过程研究进展，总结了已有研究中变化环境与人类活动对城市水文与水动力过程的影响规律，分析了当前研究的挑战与不足，展望了今后的研究方向. 以期为城市水文学与水灾害管理提供参考.