Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

全球气候变化与塔里木盆地古城绿洲演变关系

我国西部地区地形复杂,气候的地域差异性大.特别是青藏高原的突起给塔里木盆地的环境带来了巨大的变化,导致盆地气温降水的突变.从而使塔里木盆地水流分布状态发生改变,导致盆地中原有的古绿洲的蜕变,进而直接影响到整个人类的发展历史.历史研究表明,塔里木盆地气候服从于全球气候变化,并且与某些人文事件,特别是古城绿洲兴盛与消亡有着十分一致的耦合关系.所以,全球环境变化对古城绿洲发展影响重大.     

凡勃伦与马克思制度经济学思想比较

从理论来源、分析方法等方面比较了凡勃伦与马克思制度经济思想，指出二者虽然在理论来源、分析方法等方面有较大的区别，但也有一些相互融通的地方，同时，马克思经济思想给早期的制度经济学的发展开辟了更广的出路与领域。     

大型径向和推力滑动轴承试验台结构设计与应用

对径向滑动轴承、推力滑动轴承试验台以及实验台的结构设计、试验范围、功能和工业产品实验进行了介绍。该试验台在滑动轴承的实验研究中得到了很好的应用。     

系统结构模型分部的底层要素法

本文从系统的底层要素出发，提出并证明了底层要素存在性、底层要素后果集并集的完全性以及它们在同一部分的充分必要条件，由此导出了系统结构模型分部的算法，实际应用进一步说明了这一方法的有效性。     

Evolutionary and ecological implications of cardenolide sequestration in the monarch butterfly

Summary Monarch butterflies sequester cardenolides from their larval host plants in the milkweed genusAsclepias for use in defense against predation. Of 108Asclepias species in North America, monarchs are known to feed as larvae on 27. Research on 11 of these has shown that monarchs sequester cardenolides most effectively, to an asymptote of approximately 350 g/0.1 g dry butterfly, from plants with intermediate cardenolide contents rather than from those with very high or very low cardenolide contents. SinceAsclepias host plant species are distributed widely in space and time across the continent, monarchs exploit them by migration between breeding and overwintering areas. After overwintering in central Mexico, spring migrants east of the Rocky Mountains exploit three predominantAsclepias species in the southern USA that have moderately high cardenolide contents. Monarchs sequester cardenolides very effectively from these species. First generation butterflies are thus well protected against predators and continue the migration north. Across the northern USA and southern Canada most summer breeding occurs on a fourthAsclepias species and in autumn most of these monarchs migrate back to Mexican overwintering sites. The ecological implications of this cycle of cardenolide sequestration for the evolution of monarch migration are discussed.     

真蓝甲藻(Gymnodinium eucyanochroum Tseng Sp.nov.)的亚微结构、色素性质及其在藻类进化中的意义

本文报告了在南京发现的蓝色裸甲藻,测定了它的藻胆色素。证明蓝色藻胆蛋白不是山“胞内蓝藻”(Cyanellen)所提供。电子显微镜的扫描表明细胞表面有众多的突起,不是光滑的;横沟内的鞭毛不是“带状”而是由细纤维丝膜状物拉着的螺旋形。透视电子显微镜观察表明,该藻有两个类型的细胞核,即“甲藻核结构”(Dinocaryotic structure)和“真核结构”,(Eucaryotic Structure),真核与叶绿体有一个共同的膜的包被,有一个与原生动物相近似的伸缩泡系统。叶绿体是分枝状,在细胞的边缘位,但也有其它形态。有淀粉颗粒而无“造粉核”或称”“蛋白核”(Pyrenoid),多数位于叶绿体外或之间,类囊体与一般甲藻不同,不是三个排成一条“带”而是两个排列成“带”。有发达的线粒体,和高尔基体;鞭毛不论纵沟内的或横沟内的,其横切面,均为9+2的形式,其纵切面是由纤维丝成束的结构。蓝色色素提取物,可见光最大吸收峰为456nm,与隐藻藻胆色素十分相似。从细胞亚微结构及其色素性质,作者认为它是藻类演化过程中的一个中间类型的甲藻共生体。     

Misuses of biology in the context of the paranormal

Summary Public suspicion of science stems from science's challenging of perceptions and myths about reality, and a public fear of new technology. The result is a susceptibility to pseudoscience. In claiming that creation science is as valid as evolution the creationists misquote scientists and seek to spread their own scientific myths concerning a young age for the earth, an act of creation based on a particular literalist interpretation of the Christian Bible and a single worldwide flood. They use methods of debate and politics, rather than scientific research. A selection of their arguments is examined and the nature of the evidence for evolution is discussed. Problems with the creation science model are noted. In the myth of the hundredth monkey phenomenon, original research is misquoted to denigrate scientific research and support sentimental ideas of paranormal events. The misuse of science is seen as damaging to society because it reduces the effective gathering and application of scientific information. However, pseudoscience provides a valuable guide to gaps in public scientific education.     

龙门山北段早泥盆世Polygnathus的演化和古生态

龙门山北段早泥盆世牙形石动物群和Polygnathus的面貌与澳大利亚等地有惊人的相似之处。由Polygnathus dehiscens dehiscens→P.nothoperbonus→P.inversus→P.serotinus,以及由P.perbonus→P.labiosus→P.declinatus(=“P.pseudoserotinus”)的演化路线已经观察到。该序列主要繁盛于底栖相区。即使在同一生物地理区内,Polyg-nathus各分子的分布也受到相的控制,从而形成不同的演化路线。该文还简要描述了几个重要属种,其中有一新种和一未定种。