多层次降尺度方法对安徽省月降水量预测的研究

 利用1961～2004年多层次的NCEP环流资料初选出与台站月降水量的显著相关区,通过最优子集回归模型对各初选因子进行筛选和组合,形成了安徽省35个台站的月降水量回归模型,并分别利用NCEP资料和月动力延伸模式环流预报作为输入场对2005～2009年安徽省月降水量进行了回报.结果表明,该降尺度模型包含高低层的多种资料,各因子组合起来可以从统计上反映出一些影响降水的环流配置型,较传统的仅用500hPa资料的降尺度模型内容更为丰富.从回报的效果来看,预测值与实况值平均距平符号一致率为63%,PS评分为75分,其中对涝月的预测效果要好于旱月.     

融合地学知识的农业气候资源曲面建模

探讨地学知识获取与融合方法,将领域知识转换为定量的模型约束条件或初始值,采用趋势面拟合及空间插值等方法进行农业气候资源空间分布曲面建模.基于所构建模型,利用1951 ～ 2002年间全国735个地面台站的气温纪录数据,考虑了气温与海拔高程、经度、纬度、地表复杂度等地形要素的综合影响构建了曲面模型,模拟1 km×1 km...     

浅谈“管式住宅”

改革开放30多年以来,中国的经济建设取得了令世人瞩目的成就,然而资源的枯竭、能源的利用率低下、生态环境日益恶化、人口剧增等等已成为当前亟待解决的问题。当前,能源消耗和环境污染主要有三大方面:工业、交通和建筑。因此在新的形势下建筑节能减排工作就显得尤为重要。文章通过对印度著名建筑设计大师查尔斯.柯里亚的代表作品—管式住宅进行分析,剖析其设计理念及手法,加深对管式生态建筑的理解,以唤起更多的人去关注生态建筑和建筑节能。     

从工业文明走向生态文明的契机——气候危机的哲学反思

全球气候博弈的实质是各国在承认地球资源和承载能力有限的前提下力图在未来世界能源、资源分配和温室气体排放空间的分配中获得尽可能大的份额。美国与中国的个案分析表明:气候公地的悲剧源于博弈主体对于自身短期利益的追求及对人类根本利益的忽视。具体说来,发达国家受制于自由民主制度放纵的内部博弈,而发展中国家则更多的受制于国际体系的无政府状态与不平等现状下外部博弈引发的安全需求。气候危机将人类带入困境的同时也加速了人类从工业文明迈向生态文明的进程。公地悲剧的出路在于强化国家在应对气候方面的作用;加强转型时期政策的系统性;以政治上的预防原则对应吉登斯悖论;国际社会对于责任认定的公平化。     

奖励能否激励员工创造力:不同成就动机氛围下的匹配研究

激活员工创造力、凝聚新的发展动力是企业面临的紧迫任务.基于系统而权变的视角,以"语义感知-心理计量-行为强化"为理论主线,针对60个团队274名员工样本,运用跨层次分析考察了不同成就动机氛围下奖励(水平和结构)对创造力的影响.结果表明,精熟氛围、扁平型奖励结构正向影响突破式创造力;表现氛围、陡峭型奖励结构正向影响渐进式创造力:三项交互检验显示,在高精熟氛围及扁平型结构下,提高奖励水平能够更好地激活突破式创造力;而在高表现氛围和陡峭性结构下,提高奖励水平能够更好地激活渐进式创造力.研究揭示,成就动机氛围、奖励结构与创造力类型之间存在一种相对最优的匹配关系.蕴含的实践价值在于,企业应从执行角度在项目团队营造表现动机氛围并辅以竞争性激励结构,以提升渐进式创造力,快速获取局部竞争优势;但鉴于"渐进式创新有余,突破式创新不足"的企业创新格局,我们更应从战略视角在技术核心部门营造精熟氛围并辅以高位均衡的激励模式,以催生突破式创造力,赢得持久竞争优势.     

Global vegetation change analysis based on MODIS data in recent twelve years①

Vegetation cover change is critical for understanding impacts and responses of vegetation to climate change. A study found that vegetation in the regions between 45°N-70°N was increasing using normalized difference vegetation index( NDVI) from 1981 to 1991 ten years ago. The global vegetation growth has changed because of climate change in recent twelve years( 2001- 2012). After thorough analysis based on satellite data,it is found that it is evident that the global vegetation changed( NDVI) little,and it is increasing slightly in Northern hemisphere while it is decreasing slightly in Southern Hemisphere. For different latitudes,vegetation is increasing 0.17% every year from 60°N to 70 °N( R~2= 0.47,P 0.013),while the vegetation is decreasing 0.11% every year from 10°N to 10° S( R~2= 0.54,P 0.004). For different continents,the vegetation in South America is decreasing 0.16% every year( R~2= 0.78,P 0.0001) and it is increasing 0.05% every year in Asia( R~2= 0.28,P 0.072) and 0.25% every year in Oceania( R~2= 0.24,P 0.1). The analysis of global vegetation in different seasons indicates that spatial distribution of global temperature and water vapor will affect the spatial distribution of vegetation,in turn,the spatial distribution of vegetation will also regulate the global temperature and water vapor spatial distribution at large scale. The growth and distribution of vegetation are mainly caused by the orbit of the celestial bodies,and a big data model based on gravitational-magmatic change with the solar or the galactic system as its center is proposed to be built for analyzing how the earth's orbit position in the solar and galaxy system affects spatial-temporal variations of global vegetation and temperature at large scale. These findings promise a holistic understanding of the global climate change and potential underlying mechanisms.     

Mortality effects of temperature changes in the United Kingdom

Temperature changes are known to affect the social and environmental determinants of health in various ways. Consequently, excess deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions may increase over the coming decades because of climate change. In this paper, the relationship between trends in mortality and trends in temperature change (as a proxy) is investigated using annual data and for specified (warm and cold) periods during the year in the UK. A thoughtful statistical analysis is implemented and a new stochastic, central mortality rate model is proposed. The new model encompasses the good features of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87: 659–671) model and its recent extensions, and for the very first time includes an exogenous factor which is a temperature‐related factor. The new model is shown to provide a significantly better‐fitting performance and more interpretable forecasts. An illustrative example of pricing a life insurance product is provided and discussed.     

Surface pollen assemblages of human-disturbed vegetation and their relationship with vegetation and climate in Northeast China

Pollen assemblages of 53 surface pollen samples from farmlands and wastelands in Northeast China were analyzed. Tree pollen percentages were usually higher than 30%, with Pinus (26.9%), Quercus (0.9%), Betula (0.9%) and Populus (0.7%) as the major types, and herb pollen percentages were usually higher than 50%, with weedy Poaceae (8.7%), Chenopodiaceae (7.1%), Artemisia (1.9%) and Compositae (3.5%) as the major taxa. Thus, the pollen assemblages were consistent with the regional vegetation compositions. However, there were differences in pollen assemblages among regions, especially among different geomorphological units. For example, in the mountains, there were more types of tree pollen and higher total percentages (average 42%) than in other areas, while cereal pollen percentages were lowest (11.2%). In the hills and high plains, herbs made up more than 60% of the pollens, with cereals (average 53.6%) the dominant type. In the low plains, pollen types were similar to those in the hills and high plains, but total pollen concentrations and the proportion of Concentricystes were much higher, while cereal pollen percentages were slightly lower (average 41.6%). Pollen assemblages in different land use types also differed. For example, in farmland, cereal pollen percentages were more than 40% and Chenopodiaceae was usually less than 2.5%, while in wasteland, weedy Poaceae was usually less than 10% and Chenopodiaceae was usually higher than 25%. Total pollen concentrations in farmland (average 3909 grains/g) were much lower than in wasteland (average 15074 grains/g). Redundancy analysis revealed that pollen assemblages were significantly negatively correlated with mean annual temperature (-0.73) and July mean temperature (-0.81) and significantly positively correlated with mean annual precipitation (0.48), indicating that pollen assemblages in the artificial or human-disturbed vegetation reflect regional climate well. Comparison of pollen assemblages in different areas of northern China showed that pollen concentrations reflect the intensities of human impact to some degree. For example, pollen concentrations decrease as human impacts increase in intensity. The cereal pollen proportions in farmland differed by area. In Northeast China, cereal pollen proportions were distinctly higher than in most other areas of northern China, suggesting differences in planting habits and climate.     

Butterflies (Lepidoptera: Papilionoidea) of Mount Kilimanjaro: introduction and family Papilionidae

This article marks the beginning of a short series on the butterfly fauna of Mount Kilimanjaro. It commences with a brief overview of the topography, tectonic history, climate, ecological zonation and conservation significance of Africa's highest mountain. Following an introductory account to the butterfly fauna, the rest of this paper presents an annotated checklist of the swallowtails (Papilionidae). Eight papilionid species are currently believed to occur within the main forest zone, from 1800 to 2800 m (in places this zone extends down to c.1600 m). Another 10 have been recorded from the lower slopes, which include some disturbed forest and forest relicts, from 700–1800 m. The need for better data is discussed in light of the suggestion that the butterflies of Mount Kilimanjaro could become a focal group for monitoring effects of climate change. An identification key to families, together with a key to the swallowtail species and colour illustrations of adults, are included as online Supplementary Information.