Weibull分布可靠性指标区间估计的两种新方法

文本利用刀切U—统计量极限分布的定理,提出了两种对于双参数Weibull分布的参数和各种可靠性指标进行点估计和区间估计的新方法。     

Forecasting time series with increasing seasonal variation

Four options for modeling and forecasting time series data containing increasing seasonal variation are discussed, including data transformations, double seasonal difference models and two kinds of transfer function-type ARIMA models employing seasonal dummy variables. An explanation is given for the typical ARIMA model identification analysis failing to identify double seasonal difference models for this kind of data. A logical process of selecting one option for a particular case is outlined, focusing on issues of linear versus non-linear increasing seasonal variation, and the level of stochastic versus deterministic behavior in a time series. Example models for the various options are presented for six time series, with point forecast and interval forecast comparisons. Interval forecasts from data-transformation models are found to generally be too wide and sometimes illogical in the dependence of their width on the point forecast level. Suspicion that maximum likelihood estimation of ARIMA models leads to excessive indications of unit roots in seasonal moving-average operators is reported.     

地区配电网络路径选择的一种方法

地区网络按最小费用原则通常以带权图来描述。文章针对这些图分别用Ｋｒｕｓｋａｌ算法，Ｄｉｊｋｓｔｒａ算法及Ｆｏｒｄ＆Ｆｕｌｋｓｏｎ算法进行了优化设计。结果表明，Ｋｒｕｓｋａｌ算法偏重于网络的整体结构布局，而Ｄｉｊｋｓｔｒａ及Ｆｏｒｄ＆Ｆｕｌｋｓｏｎ算法更适合于单电源分支线路的优化路径选择。     

Metabonomic analysis of hepatitis B virus-induced liver failure： identification of potential diagnostic biomarkers by fuzzy support vector machine

Hepatitis B virus （HBV）-induced liver failure is an emergent liver disease leading to high mortality. The severity of liver failure may be reflected by the profile of some metabolites. This study assessed the potential of using metabolites as biomarkers for liver failure by identifying metabolites with good discriminative performance for its phenotype. The serum samples from 24 HBV-indueed liver failure patients and 23 healthy volunteers were collected and analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry （GC-MS） to generate metabolite profiles. The 24 patients were further grouped into two classes according to the severity of liver failure. Twenty-five eommensal peaks in all metabolite profiles were extracted, and the relative area values of these peaks were used as features for each sample. Three algorithms, F-test, k-nearest neighbor （KNN） and fuzzy support vector machine （FSVM） combined with exhaustive search （ES）, were employed to identify a subset of metabolites （biomarkers） that best predict liver failure. Based on the achieved experimental dataset, 93.62% predictive accuracy by 6 features was selected with FSVM-ES and three key metabolites, glyeerie acid, cis-aeonitie acid and citric acid, are identified as potential diagnostic biomarkers.     

基于Flexsim的配送中心仿真建模研究

本文首先对物流仿真软件Flexsim介绍进行了简要的概述,然后介绍了Flexsim的运作流程,最后利用Flexsim对一个简单的配送中心进行了仿真,通过仿真结果可知Flexsim对提高物流配送中心的效率,降低成本具有积极的作用。     

随机保费下带红利的期望贴现惩罚函数

利用Gerber—Shiu期望贴现惩罚函数统一研究了在保费随机到达和红利边界下的破产问题，推广了Albrecher,Kainholer（2002）和Bao Zhen—hua（2006）中的结论。首先本文考虑了索赔到达间隔服从普通概率分布时的期望贴现惩罚函数，并得到无红利边界时的极限解；再将红利边界固定为常数，考虑了平稳更新过程和PH更新过程中的结果。最后本文将结论应用于破产概率、破产前盈余的概率分布及破产前盈余过程到达红利边界的概率等实例，并进行了数值实现。     

针对不平衡数据集的客户流失预测算法

针对客户关系管理中的客户流失预测问题进行探讨,通过对客户流失数据特点的分析,以及现有预测算法的比较,将数据挖掘方法中的随机森林算法引入客户流失预测,建立预测模型,并在实际的银行业贷款客户数据集上进行实验,得到了较好的效果.     

模q原根中LehmerDH数的一种分布

设奇数ｑ≥３存在原根，本文利用Ｋｌｏｏｓｔｅｒｍａｎ和估计研究了模ｑ原根中ＬｅｈｍｒＤＨ数的一种分布性质，并给出了珍肯趣的分布式公。。     

框架分析方法选择—─兼谈结构分析课程内容的优化

通过对框架分析的各种手算和电算方法的综合分析和比较，根据手算和电算对分析方法的不同要求提出选择计算方法的的原则和方案。同时对土木工程各专业的结构分析课程提出一些内容更新和优化的建议。     

兰属4种植物DNA指纹图的初步研究

采用ＪＨ－１８·８寡核苷酸探针检测了兰属４植物基因组ＤＮＡ中的酶切片段，获得了由１０－１１条分子杂交谱带组成的ＤＮＡ指纹图谱，结果表明：在４．０－２４．０Ｋｂ范围内，大红朱砂（Ａ）的谱带数为１０条，红蝉（ＢＢ）为１０条，Ａ×Ｂ→Ｆ１２Ｎ＝４０（Ｃ）为１１条，Ａ×Ｂ→Ｆ１２Ｎ＝８０（Ｄ）为１１条，ＪＨ－１２·８探针能与兰属植物基因组ＤＮＡ小的简单重复序列形成杂交分子，表明兰属４植物基因组中存在同源的ＤＮＡ片段，为进一步在分子水平上进行兰扈植物的遗传多样性和近缘种群间的遗传差异分析提供了一种简便方法。