考虑风险偏好的区间2型模糊多属性决策方法

针对区间2型梯形模糊集(IT2TrFS)的多属性决策问题,提出了一种考虑决策者风险偏好的多属性决策方法.首先根据决策者的风险偏好给决策者分类,提出了决策者风险偏好的度量方法,进而求得决策者风险偏好决策矩阵,并定义了新的可能度计算公式:最后通过计算符号距离得到方案的排序结果.实例分析表明该方法科学合理,决策者的不同风险偏好对决策结果存在影响,方法对比说明与已有算法相比该方法有更强的适用性:对风险偏好和风险保守的决策者同样适用.     

RiskVA:A Visual Analytics System for Consumer Credit Risk Analysis

Consumer credit risk analysis plays a significant role in stabilizing a bank’s investments and in maximizing its profits.As a large financial institution,Bank of America relies on effective risk analyses to minimize the net credit loss resulting from its credit products(e.g.,mortgage and credit card loans).Due to the size and complexity of the data involved in this process,analysts are facing challenges in monitoring the data,comparing its geospatial and temporal patterns,and developing appropriate strategies based on the correlation from multiple analysis perspectives.To address these challenges,we present RiskVA,an interactive visual analytics system that is tailored to support credit risk analysis.RiskVA provides interactive data exploration and correlation,and visually facilitates depictions of market ?uctuations and temporal trends for a targeted credit product.When evaluated by analysts from Bank of America,RiskVA was appreciated for its effectiveness in facilitating the bank’s risk management.     

客船航行安全隐患风险等级评估

通过构建客船碰撞事故树模型,描述基本事件(安全隐患)与事故之间的因果逻辑关系,解析事故发生的各种可能途径.对浙江辖区客船碰撞事故基本事件进行定量分析,运用ALARP风险图确定各安全隐患的风险等级.     

基于信息不对称的银行信贷风险决策机制及分析(Ⅰ)——信贷风险决策模型

研究商业银行在信息不对称的信货市场中 ,当存在高、低两种不同风险类型的贷款企业时 ,银行因无法准确判断企业投资项目的风险类型 ,因而造成了信贷资金的损失或机会损失 .分析并研究了这两种损失常见的几种情形及其数学原理 ,建立了银行信贷风险的决策模型 ,给出其 Kuhn-Tucker条件 .指出了在模型之下 ,当抵押品作为鉴别企业风险类型的手段失效时 ,为规避信贷风险 ,银行对企业提供的抵押品价值将有特殊的要求 .     

加强付费售电管理 防范电费风险

详细分析了电费回收的风险因素,并就如何防范电费风险提出了具体的措施。     

科技工作者创新创业现状与风险调查

 为掌握科技工作者参与创新创业的意愿及顾虑，激发创业潜能，化解创新风险，采用问卷调查和调研访谈相结合的方式，利用中国科学技术协会全国调查站点随机抽样选取18629位科技工作者进行问卷调查，并对9家科技型创业企业及孵化机构和联盟组织进行调研访谈。研究发现，科技工作者创业意愿较高，但创业行动因创新政策落实情况而异；科技工作者对离岗创业存在后顾之忧，需进一步破解政策难题和制度障碍，完善有利于创新创业的生态环境。     

涉诉信访博弈模型构建与风险防范策略研究

涉诉信访工作具有复杂性、敏感性等特点,办理工作稍有不慎即会引发危害人民群众生命财产安全的社会问题.本文首次应用博弈论方法分析涉诉信访的风险防范策略,运用不完全信息静态博弈模型分析上访风险事件之前人民法院的案件审理决策;运用不完全信息动态博弈模型分析上访风险事件之后人民法院的初访接访决策.通过求解博弈均衡结果分析得出,人民法院现有的审理接访策略存在不合理因素,建立科学的风险预警体系可以防范涉诉信访风险,有效配置司法资源.本文以人民法院为视角,将博弈论模型均衡结果与风险预警模型相结合,创新性地提出了在司法资源约束下防范涉诉信访风险的应对策略.     

上海国际航运中心幕墙施工风险分析

以上海国际航运服务中心建设项目为依托,首先根据幕墙施工的工程特点,对其施工过程中存在的风险事件进行分析评估,得到本工程幕墙施工风险等级.同时提出了有针对性的风险应对措施,为本工程的幕墙施工提供了一定的意见和建议,对幕墙施工风险控制具有一定的指导意义.     

Douglas on values: From indirect roles to multiple goals

In recent papers and a book, Heather Douglas has expanded on the well-known argument from inductive risk, thereby launching an influential contemporary critique of the value-free ideal for science. This paper distills Douglas’s critique into four major claims. The first three claims provide a significant challenge to the value-free ideal for science. However, the fourth claim, which delineates her positive proposal to regulate values in science by distinguishing direct and indirect roles for values, is ambiguous between two interpretations, and both have weaknesses. Fortunately, two elements of Douglas’s work that have previously received much less emphasis (namely, her comments about the goals of scientific activity and the ethics of communicating about values) provide resources for developing a more promising approach for regulating values in science.     

A new statistical approach for the analysis of uncertain systems

This paper addresses the issues of conservativeness and computational complexity of probabilistic robustness analysis. The authors solve both issues by defining a new sampling strategy and robustness measure. The new measure is shown to be much less conservative than the existing one. The new sampling strategy enables the definition of efficient hierarchical sample reuse algorithms that reduce significantly the computational complexity and make it independent of the dimension of the uncertainty space. Moreover, the authors show that there exists a one to one correspondence between the new and the existing robustness measures and provide a computationally simple algorithm to derive one from the other. This research is supported in part by grants from NASA (NCC5-573), LEQSF (NASA /LEQSF(2001-04)-01), the NNSFC Young Investigator Award for Overseas Collaborative Research (60328304) and a NNSFC grant (10377004).