A remark on Fuchs’ Bayesian interpretation of quantum mechanics

Quantum mechanics is a theory whose foundations spark controversy to this day. Although many attempts to explain the underpinnings of the theory have been made, none has been unanimously accepted as satisfactory. Fuchs has recently claimed that the foundational issues can be resolved by interpreting quantum mechanics in the light of quantum information. The view proposed is that quantum mechanics should be interpreted along the lines of the subjective Bayesian approach to probability theory. The quantum state is not the physical state of a microscopic object. It is an epistemic state of an observer; it represents subjective degrees of belief about outcomes of measurements. The interpretation gives an elegant solution to the infamous measurement problem: measurement is nothing but Bayesian belief updating in a analogy to belief updating in a classical setting. In this paper, we analyze an argument that Fuchs gives in support of this latter claim. We suggest that the argument is not convincing since it rests on an ad hoc construction. We close with some remarks on the options left for Fuchs’ quantum Bayesian project.     

常数比例投资下正则变化尾且相依索赔的渐近破产概率

研究了更新风险模型中的渐近破产概率,其中允许保险公司将其资产按常数比例投资于满足几何布朗运动的股票市场,其余部分投资于非负利率的债券市场.对此模型假定索赔额满足正则分布且两两拟渐近独立,根据伊藤公式,给出保险公司资产的表达式,并最后给出了有限时间和无限时间的破产概率.当更新过程的特殊情况即复合泊松过程且索赔额独立同分布时,得出最终破产概率简洁的渐近表达式,与文献[Gaier J,Grandits P.Ruin probabilities and investment underinterest force in the presence of regularly varying tails.Scand Actuarial J,2004(4):256-278]中得到结果一样,并给出了模拟的结果.     

Fuzzy-Expert Diagnostics for Detecting and Locating Internal Faults in Three Phase Induction Motors

Internal faults in three phase induction motors can result in serious performance degradation and eventual system failures if not properly detected and treated in time. Artificial intelligence techniques, the core of soft-computing, have numerous advantages over conventional fault diagnostic approaches; therefore, a soft-computing system was developed to detect and diagnose electric motor faults. The fault diagnostic system for three-phase induction motors samples the fault symptoms and then uses a fuzzy-expert forward inference model to identify the fault. This paper describes how to define the membership functions and fuzzy sets based on the fault symptoms and how to construct the hierarchical fuzzy inference nets with the propagation of probabilities concerning the uncertainty of faults. The designed hierarchical fuzzy inference nets efficiently detect and diagnose the fault type and exact location in a three phase induction motor. The validity and effectiveness of this approach is clearly shown from obtained testing results.     

出行弹性概念及其应用

基于出行链决策中各选择肢的被选概率及其离散程度,给出了出行弹性度的基本概念及数学定义,并提出了3种出行弹性度,即出行方式选择弹性度、出发时刻选择弹性度和出行链综合弹性度,给出了各选择肢被选概率标准差的相关量来确定以上3种出行弹性度的方法.利用广东省中山市的居民出行数据,建立了出行方式选择和出发时刻选择的多项Logit模型,标定了上述3种出行弹性度,并进行了弹性度分级.比较了考虑弹性度与不考虑弹性度时交通需求管理措施对交通方式转移量的预测,结果显示,不考虑弹性度的转移量预测模型一定程度夸大了交通需求管理措施的实施效果,验证了出行弹性度研究的必要性及其应用价值.     

我国通货膨胀率过程区制状态划分与转移分析

利用马尔科夫区制转移模型来具体刻画和分析我国通货膨胀率过程的时间动态轨迹,检验结果表明,我国通货膨胀过程可以划分为"通货膨胀区制"、"通货紧缩区制"和"通货变化适中区制",通货膨胀率过程在不同区制状态下均能够体现出显著的持续性特征.同时发现,我国经济政策操作与通货膨胀率所处区制之间以及经济政策调控与通货膨胀率所处区制的阶段性变迁之间都存在明显的相关性,这意味着在我国存在经济政策对价格水平变化所进行的及时动态干预和宏观调控.     

先验与后验相结合的汽车保险索赔模型

在传统的汽车定价中,建立索赔模型通常使用后验经验估费法,这种后验方法因为忽略重要的先验信息而存在缺陷。本文提出了先验与后验方法相结合的新索赔模型,并使用信度理论对新老模型进行比较分析,最后给出了具体计算方法和实例。研究表明,新索赔模型不仅使车险定价更公平合理,降低定价风险;而且易于运用。     

一类广义Feistel密码的安全性能分析

为评估一类广义Feistel密码的安全性能,通过列举的方法,对该分组密码抵抗差分密码分析和线性密码分析的能力进行了深入研究.在轮函数是双射的假设条件下,证明了4,8,12,16轮广义Feistel密码分别至少有2,5,8,10个轮函数的输入差分非零;证明了4r(r≥2)轮广义Feistel密码至少有2r 1个轮函数的输入差分非零.从而若设轮函数的最大差分和线性特征的概率分别为p和q,则4r(r≥2)轮广义Feistel密码的差分特征和线性特征的概率分别以p2r 1和q2r 1为其上界.     

The effectiveness of imprecise probability forecasts

In this paper we investigate the feasibility of algorithmically deriving precise probability forecasts from imprecise forecasts. We provide an empirical evaluation of precise probabilities that have been derived from two types of imprecise probability forecasts: probability intervals and probability intervals with second-order probability distributions. The minimum cross-entropy (MCE) principle is applied to the former to derive precise (i.e. additive) probabilities; expectation (EX) is used to derive precise probabilities in the latter case. Probability intervals that were constructed without second-order probabilities tended to be narrower than and contained in those that were amplified by second-order probabilities. Evidence that this narrowness is due to motivational bias is presented. Analysis of forecasters' mean Probability Scores for the derived precise probabilities indicates that it is possible to derive precise forecasts whose external correspondence is as good as directly assessed precise probability forecasts. The forecasts of the EX method, however, are more like the directly assessed precise forecasts than those of the MCE method.     

原子核 168 Er低能激发谱中的1+态

利用前斯提出的sdd‘玻色子相互作用模型的理论方案描述转动核^168Er低能激发谱中的全部1^ 态，计算^168Er能谱中1^ 态到基态的B（M1）跃迁值以及1^ 态的B（M1）跃迁分支比。结果表明，用d及d‘玻色子激发耦合模式能较好的描述1^ 态的能谱以及1^ 态的B（M1)跃迁和1^ 态的B（M1）跃迁分支比。     

造假现象的博弈分析

我国的造假现象屡打不止,成为社会经济生活中的一大顽症。本文尝试从博弈论的视角对造假现象进行分析和解释,并对目前的打假政策提出笔者本人的看法。