基于模糊数学的计算机性能评价和销售预测的研究

根据模糊数学理论,运用模糊意见集中评价和模糊综合评价方法,计算机性能评价和销售预测进行研究,为评价差别不是很明显和含有多种因素的事物,提供了科学有效的方法.     

综合评价多目标决策模型的探讨

在目标规划基础上,提出了综合评价多目标决策数学模型,该模型的主要特点是能够根据各个目标的重要性进行综合评价,由此选取决策变量的最优值。     

山东省人口发展趋势的定量分析

根据山东省第四次人口普查资料,采用人口发展动态模型,对山东人口发展过程进行了优化分析研究,针对山东省人口发展过程中存在的问题,进一步探讨了解决的有效途径。     

评估洪水灾情等级的投影寻踪模型

为检验所订洪水灾情等级标准的合理性 ,解决各单项指标灾情等级评估结果的不相容问题 ,提高灾情等级模型的灾级分辨率 ,提出了一种新的洪水灾情等级模型——投影寻踪 ( PP)模型 ,它的灾级是连续的实数值 .为减少 PP建模的计算量 ,给出了一套建模方案 ,构造了新的投影指标函数 ,并统一用实码加速遗传算法来优化投影指标函数和模型参数 .实例的计算结果表明 ,该方案是有效的和通用的 ,具有广泛的应用前景.     

高师体育教育专业学生教学技能Fuzzy综合评估的研究

根据目标反馈控制原理 ,采用教育评估的方法 ,经过多轮调查 ,建立了高师体育教育专业学生教学技能评估指标体系 ,采用Saaty相关重要程度相关计算方法确定合理权重 .然后 ,运用Fuzzy综合评价方法进行评估实验研究 ,经实验研究验证 ,评价效果是令人满意的 .     

Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

岩土体渗透变形在坝基工程中的危害及防治

介绍了渗透变形的特征，危害及其影响因素，阐述了渗透变形的预测和防治方法。     

Impoverishment of Soil Nutrients in Gully Erosion Areas in Yuanmou Basin

The impoverishment of soil nutrients of nine gully head areas in Yuanmou Basin is assessed through an integrated evaluation method established on the basis of Fuzzy mathematics and multivariate mathematical theory. Results show that soil erosion of gully erosion area in Yuanmou basin has resulted in severe impoverishment of soil nutrients. All gully head areas are at high leves of impoverishment except for one at middle. By probing into and analyzing the mechanism of impoverishment of soil nutrients, we find that soil erosion has led to impoverishment of soil nutrients in a way of compacting soil, heightening position of obstacle horizon, and reducing the content of organic matter, as well as the direct loss of nutrient elements. Finally, this paper points out that soil and water conservation arming at the prevention of soil erosion is the most effective way against impoverishment of soil nutrients in Yuanmou basin.     

应用等维新息双向差分灰色模型进行趋势分析的新发现

本建立了最佳等维新息双向差分灰色模型，不仅拓宽了灰色预测的适用范围，而且还通过维数选择确定了最佳维数；使用最新数学工具软件MATLAB进行编程，同时通过对上证周指进行趋势分析，该等维新息预测能较准确地预测未来随机时间序列的涨、跌幅度。     

我国工业重大灾害的Delphi预测方法及其应用──重大危险源辨识的德尔菲（Delphi）专家系统设计

文章针对我国工业企业重大灾害频繁发生的现实，运用Ｄｅｌｐｈｉ方法对人－机－环境系统中大量无法定量的危险源作出概率估算和危险度分级，为建立重大危险源辨识的定量与定性分析相结合的专家系统等做一些初步探讨。