Forecast accuracy and effort: The case of US inflation rates

This paper investigates the relationship between forecast accuracy and effort, where effort is defined as the number of times the model used to generate forecasts is recursively estimated over the full sample period. More specifically, within a framework of costly effort, optimal effort strategies are derived under the assumption that the dynamics of the variable of interest follow an autoregressive‐type process. Results indicate that the strategies are fairly robust over a wide range of linear and nonlinear processes (including structural break processes), and deliver forecasts of transitory, core and total inflation that require less effort to generate and are as accurate as (that is, are insignificantly different from) those produced with maximum effort. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Early research on the biological effects of microwave radiation: 1940–1960

Two overriding considerations shaped the development of early research on the biological effects of microwave radiation—possible medical application (diathermy) and uncertainty about the hazards of exposure to radar. Reports in the late 1940s and early 1950s of hazards resulting from microwave exposure led to the near abandonment of medical research related to microwave diathermy at the same time that military and industrial concern over hazards grew, culminating in the massive research effort known as ‘the Tri-Service program’ (1957–1960). Both the early focus on medical application and the later search for hazards played important roles in dictating how this field of research developed as a science.     

A P-type ATPase required for rice blast disease and induction of host resistance

To cause diseases in plants, pathogenic microorganisms have evolved mechanisms to deliver proteins directly into plant cells, where they suppress plant defences and facilitate tissue invasion. How plant pathogenic fungi, which cause many of the world's most serious plant diseases, deliver proteins during plant infection is currently unknown. Here we report the characterization of a P-type ATPase-encoding gene, MgAPT2, in the economically important rice blast pathogen Magnaporthe grisea, which is required for exocytosis during plant infection. Targeted gene replacement showed that MgAPT2 is required for both foliar and root infection by the fungus, and for the rapid induction of host defence responses in an incompatible reaction. DeltaMgapt2 mutants are impaired in the secretion of a range of extracellular enzymes and accumulate abnormal Golgi-like cisternae. However, the loss of MgAPT2 does not significantly affect hyphal growth or sporulation, indicating that the establishment of rice blast disease involves the use of MgApt2-dependent exocytotic processes that operate during plant infection.     

Inactivation of the p53 pathway in retinoblastoma

Most human tumours have genetic mutations in their Rb and p53 pathways, but retinoblastoma is thought to be an exception. Studies suggest that retinoblastomas, which initiate with mutations in the gene retinoblastoma 1 (RB1), bypass the p53 pathway because they arise from intrinsically death-resistant cells during retinal development. In contrast to this prevailing theory, here we show that the tumour surveillance pathway mediated by Arf, MDM2, MDMX and p53 is activated after loss of RB1 during retinogenesis. RB1-deficient retinoblasts undergo p53-mediated apoptosis and exit the cell cycle. Subsequently, amplification of the MDMX gene and increased expression of MDMX protein are strongly selected for during tumour progression as a mechanism to suppress the p53 response in RB1-deficient retinal cells. Our data provide evidence that the p53 pathway is inactivated in retinoblastoma and that this cancer does not originate from intrinsically death-resistant cells as previously thought. In addition, they support the idea that MDMX is a specific chemotherapeutic target for treating retinoblastoma.     

Common sequence variants on 20q11.22 confer melanoma susceptibility

We conducted a genome-wide association pooling study for cutaneous melanoma and performed validation in samples totaling 2,019 cases and 2,105 controls. Using pooling, we identified a new melanoma risk locus on chromosome 20 (rs910873 and rs1885120), with replication in two further samples (combined P < 1 x 10(-15)). The per allele odds ratio was 1.75 (1.53, 2.01), with evidence for stronger association in early-onset cases.     

Loci on 20q13 and 21q22 are associated with pediatric-onset inflammatory bowel disease

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a common inflammatory disorder with complex etiology that involves both genetic and environmental triggers, including but not limited to defects in bacterial clearance, defective mucosal barrier and persistent dysregulation of the immune response to commensal intestinal bacteria. IBD is characterized by two distinct phenotypes: Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Previously reported GWA studies have identified genetic variation accounting for a small portion of the overall genetic susceptibility to CD and an even smaller contribution to UC pathogenesis. We hypothesized that stratification of IBD by age of onset might identify additional genes associated with IBD. To that end, we carried out a GWA analysis in a cohort of 1,011 individuals with pediatric-onset IBD and 4,250 matched controls. We identified and replicated significantly associated, previously unreported loci on chromosomes 20q13 (rs2315008[T] and rs4809330[A]; P = 6.30 x 10(-8) and 6.95 x 10(-8), respectively; odds ratio (OR) = 0.74 for both) and 21q22 (rs2836878[A]; P = 6.01 x 10(-8); OR = 0.73), located close to the TNFRSF6B and PSMG1 genes, respectively.     

Whole-genome analysis of diverse Chlamydia trachomatis strains identifies phylogenetic relationships masked by current clinical typing

Chlamydia trachomatis is responsible for both trachoma and sexually transmitted infections, causing substantial morbidity and economic cost globally. Despite this, our knowledge of its population and evolutionary genetics is limited. Here we present a detailed phylogeny based on whole-genome sequencing of representative strains of C. trachomatis from both trachoma and lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV) biovars from temporally and geographically diverse sources. Our analysis shows that predicting phylogenetic structure using ompA, which is traditionally used to classify Chlamydia, is misleading because extensive recombination in this region masks any true relationships present. We show that in many instances, ompA is a chimera that can be exchanged in part or as a whole both within and between biovars. We also provide evidence for exchange of, and recombination within, the cryptic plasmid, which is another key diagnostic target. We used our phylogenetic framework to show how genetic exchange has manifested itself in ocular, urogenital and LGV C. trachomatis strains, including the epidemic LGV serotype L2b.     

A large population of 'Lyman-break' galaxies in a protocluster at redshift z approximately 4.1

The most massive galaxies and the richest clusters are believed to have emerged from regions with the largest enhancements of mass density relative to the surrounding space. Distant radio galaxies may pinpoint the locations of the ancestors of rich clusters, because they are massive systems associated with 'overdensities' of galaxies that are bright in the Lyman-alpha line of hydrogen. A powerful technique for detecting high-redshift galaxies is to search for the characteristic 'Lyman break' feature in the galaxy colour, at wavelengths just shortwards of Lyalpha, which is due to absorption of radiation from the galaxy by the intervening intergalactic medium. Here we report multicolour imaging of the most distant candidate protocluster, TN J1338-1942 at a redshift z approximately 4.1. We find a large number of objects with the characteristic colours of galaxies at that redshift, and we show that this excess is concentrated around the targeted dominant radio galaxy. Our data therefore indicate that TN J1338-1942 is indeed the most distant cluster progenitor of a rich local cluster, and that galaxy clusters began forming when the Universe was only ten per cent of its present age.     

Unique astrocyte ribbon in adult human brain contains neural stem cells but lacks chain migration

The subventricular zone (SVZ) is a principal source of adult neural stem cells in the rodent brain, generating thousands of olfactory bulb neurons every day. If the adult human brain contains a comparable germinal region, this could have considerable implications for future neuroregenerative therapy. Stem cells have been isolated from the human brain, but the identity, organization and function of adult neural stem cells in the human SVZ are unknown. Here we describe a ribbon of SVZ astrocytes lining the lateral ventricles of the adult human brain that proliferate in vivo and behave as multipotent progenitor cells in vitro. This astrocytic ribbon has not been observed in other vertebrates studied. Unexpectedly, we find no evidence of chains of migrating neuroblasts in the SVZ or in the pathway to the olfactory bulb. Our work identifies SVZ astrocytes as neural stem cells in a niche of unique organization in the adult human brain.