An empirical investigation on the risk-return relationship of carbon future market

This paper examines the risk-return relationship for the carbon future market during Phases I, II and III of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). The risk factors derived from the newly developed LSW model, are embedded into a GARCH framework. This new specification is compared with several GARCH-M type models analyzing the risk-return relationship in the carbon market. The results show that the new specification consistently achieves a good fit and possesses superior explanatory power for the European Union Allowance (EUA) data. Some policy suggestions regarding market efficiency are also provided.     

The effects of the non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing on the forecast of tropical cyclone tracks

The Weather Research and Forecasting model(WRF)is configured for the region of(15°–41°N,105°–135°E),which covers the same area with the MASNUM(Key Lab.Marine ScienceNumerical Modeling,State Oceanic Administration)wave-tide-circulation coupled operational forecast system.Three numerical experiments are implemented to investigate the effects of the real-time forecasted sea surface temperature(SST)and the nonbreaking wave-induced vertical mixing(Bv)on the track forecast of all 33 tropical cyclones(TC)in the model domain area during 2008 and 2011.The first experiment employs NCEP FNL(NCEP final analysis)SST as WRF’s bottom condition as the Control run,which is also the default setup of WRF.The second and third experiments use real-time forecasted SST from the MASNUM forecast system with and without Bv,respectively.The forecasted track results are compared with Japan Meteorological Agency’s best track data.For 24-h forecast,the averaged TC position error of Experiment with Bv is reduced by 9%compared to the Control experiment,while the forecasted track error of Experiment without Bv is reduced by only2%compared to the Control experiment.For the 48-h forecast,the averaged track errors are reduced by 10%and6%with Bv and without Bv compared to the Control experiment,respectively.These results suggest that the real-time forecasted SST can improve the performance of WRF in forecasting TC track,and the Bv plays an important role in reducing the forecast error of TC track.Comparatively,Bv can improve more on the track of stronger TC.     

表面张力作用下柱形胶体的弹性失稳

采用弹性理论研究了圆柱形胶体在表面张力作用下的弹性失稳问题;利用能量泛函变分的方法导出 了发生弹性失稳的非经典边界条件,得到了失稳的判据方程。分析判据方程发现,弹性失稳与圆柱体的半径、 内禀尺度和失稳波长相关。     

Predicting the spread of nuclear radiation from the damaged Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

Japan suffered a M9.0 earthquake and massive tsunami on March 11, 2011, which seriously damaged the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant and caused a nuclear crisis. The spread of nuclear radiation from the power plant through the atmosphere and ocean was predicted with a short-term climate forecasting model and an ocean circulation model under some idealized assumptions. If nuclear matter were leaked in the near-ground layer of 992 hPa, the climate model results show that the nuclear radiation would cover North America 10 days after the initial leakage, with the concentration at the forefront dramatically reduced to 10 millionths of the initial model concentration at the source. The radiation would span Europe in 15 days and cover much of the Northern Hemisphere in 30 days. If the initial leakage was assumed to occur in the layer 5000-m above the ground, the radiation would cover Europe in 10 days and cover much of the Northern Hemisphere in 15 days. Moreover, under the assumption that the nuclear matter leaked in the 10000-m layer, the radiation would affect much of China after 10 days. The ocean circulation model indicates that the nuclear material would be slowly transported northeast of Fukushima and reach 150°E in 50 days, and the nuclear debris in the ocean would be confined to a narrow band. Compared with the spread in the ocean, the area affected by leaked nuclear radiation in the atmosphere would be very large. Atmospheric monitors in North America and Europe will be helpful for estimating the effect in China of any leaked nuclear material.     

Exploring non-equilibrium statistical ensembles

Since Gibbs synthesized a general equilibrium statistical ensemble theory, generalizing the Gibbsian theory to non-equilibrium phenomena has been a dream for some theorists. However, the status of the theory for the non-equilibrium ensemble formalism is not as well established as the Gibbsian ensemble theory. In this work, we explore the formalism behind the non-equilibrium statistical ensemble theory based on the sub-dynamic kinetic equation originating from the Brussels-Austin school and develop...     

昆明松花坝水源保护区云南松林地表蚂蚁多样性

 运用陷阱法调查了昆明市松花坝水源保护区无干扰及干扰云南松林地表蚂蚁群落.无干扰样地蚂蚁群落由3亚科13种组成,亮毛蚁Lasius fuliginosus最常见;干扰样地由4亚科21种组成,细胸蚁2 Leptothorax sp.2和玉米毛蚁Lasius alienus最常见;2个样地的蚂蚁物种丰富度ACE估计值分别为24.76和26.27,样地间多度及物种丰富度估计值没有显著差异;无干扰样地蚂蚁群落物种组成不同于干扰样地,但部分样带与干扰样地接近;亮毛蚁是无干扰样地的指示物种(IndVal=0.9787,P=0.001),邵氏厚结猛蚁Pachycondyla sauteri是干扰样地的指示物种(IndVal=0.6667,P=0.001);地表蚂蚁多样性与植物多样性具有显著相关性.研究显示:云南松林地表蚂蚁多样性能够指示植物多样性;松花坝水源保护区云南松林地表蚂蚁多样性相对较低;干扰已经改变了云南松林的地表蚂蚁群落组成;保护区的建立对当地生物多样性有积极作用,但保护力度仍然不够.     

基于邻域粗糙集的不完整决策系统特征选择算法

针对不完整决策系统属性约简算法时间复杂度较高问题,基于正域不变条件下,决策系统分类能力保持不变原则,提出不完整决策系统前向顺序特征选择算法.该算法从约简集为空集开始,根据在约简集合中加入各属性后对正域影响程度大小将属性降序排列,采用顺序前向搜索,选择当前最佳特征加入特征约简集合,确定最佳特征子集.将该算法扩展到基于邻域...     

基于恒电流二极管的LED驱动电路设计

LED照明是当前照明市场的热点趋势,对于其驱动电路设计方案也层出不穷.本文根据恒电流二极管的特性,针对LED照明中的小功率和大功率LED的不同特性,分别给出了驱动电路设计.保证LED驱动电路性能的同时大大简化了其驱动电路设计,降低了驱动电路的成本.     

园林绿化植物选配计算机辅助系统设计与实现

园林绿化植物选配计算机辅助系统是专为辅助用户在进行园林景观设计时,优选指定条件的植物种类,其主要功能是按植物要素和环境要素查询适合规划地种植的植物种类.系统的开发与实现首先要收集主要园林绿化植物资料,建立园林景观植物数据库;然后设计人机交互界面,实现用户方便快捷的访问数据库.用户可登陆系统界面,通过选择需要种植的景观植...     

东昆仑金水口南变余辉长岩地球化学及锆石定年

目的 限定东昆仑造山带在新元古代Rodinia超大陆裂解的时限.方法 依据主、微量元素地球化学判别变余辉长岩的构造属性,并通过LA-ICP-MS对其中的锆石进行U-Pb测年.结果 变余辉长岩富集大离子亲石元素,轻稀土元素(LREE)及高场强元素(Nb,Ta)弱亏损,形成于较典型的大陆裂谷环境;U-Pb锆石测年结果显示,变余辉长岩形成年龄为(796±41)Ma(MSWD=0.47).结论 东昆仑造山带在新元古代裂解的时间为(796±41)Ma(MSWD=0.47).