Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation and testing of time-varying coefficient regression models in the presence of linear restrictions

A linear regression model with random walk coefficients is extended to allow for linear restrictions between the coefficients to be satisfied at each point in time. Estimation in this model is shown to be no more involved than estimation in the standard model. It is also demonstrated how, after a slight modification to the testing problem, classical test procedures may be applied to the problem of testing for such restrictions. The performance of the Lagrange Multiplier test for a variety of different restrictions is then investigated via simulation. An empirical application involving testing for homogeneity in a random walk coefficient version of the AIDS model is given.     

DNA fingerprinting transforms the art of cell authentication.

The increasing diversity of new cell cultures is seriously stretching the capabilities of traditional methods of identification. DNA fingerprinting is set to play an important role in increasing confidence in the authenticity of cultures in research and industry.     

Periodic paralysis in quarter horses: a sodium channel mutation disseminated by selective breeding.

We recently reported on a linkage study within a Quarter Horse lineage segregating hyperkalaemic periodic paralysis (HYPP), an autosomal dominant condition showing potassium-induced attacks of skeletal muscle paralysis. HYPP co-segregated with the equine adult skeletal muscle sodium channel alpha subunit gene, the same gene that causes human HYPP. We now describe the Phe to Leu mutation in transmembrane domain IVS3 which courses the horse disease. This represents the first application of molecular genetics to an important horse disease, and the data will provide an opportunity for control or eradication of this condition.     

Targeted disruption of the mouse transforming growth factor-beta 1 gene results in multifocal inflammatory disease.

Transforming growth factor-beta 1 (TGF-beta 1) is a multifunctional growth factor that has profound regulatory effects on many developmental and physiological processes. Disruption of the TGF-beta 1 gene by homologous recombination in murine embryonic stem cells enables mice to be generated that carry the disrupted allele. Animals homozygous for the mutated TGF-beta 1 allele show no gross developmental abnormalities, but about 20 days after birth they succumb to a wasting syndrome accompanied by a multifocal, mixed inflammatory cell response and tissue necrosis, leading to organ failure and death. TGF-beta 1-deficient mice may be valuable models for human immune and inflammatory disorders, including autoimmune diseases, transplant rejection and graft versus host reactions.     

A ground‐level ozone forecasting model for Santiago,Chile

A physically based model for ground‐level ozone forecasting is evaluated for Santiago, Chile. The model predicts the daily peak ozone concentration, with the daily rise of air temperature as input variable; weekends and rainy days appear as interventions. This model was used to analyse historical data, using the Linear Transfer Function/Finite Impulse Response (LTF/FIR) formalism; the Simultaneous Transfer Function (STF) method was used to analyse several monitoring stations together. Model evaluation showed a good forecasting performance across stations—for low and high ozone impacts—with power of detection (POD) values between 70 and 100%, Heidke's Skill Scores between 40% and 70% and low false alarm rates (FAR). The model consistently outperforms a pure persistence forecast. Model performance was not sensitive to different implementation options. The model performance degrades for two‐ and three‐days ahead forecast, but is still acceptable for the purpose of developing an environmental warning system at Santiago. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of Weld Depth in A-TIG Welding with Unified Arc-electrode model

Ｉｔｋｎｏｗｎｔｈａｔｓｍａｌｌａｍｏｕｎｔｓｏｆｆｌｕｘｏｎｔｈｅｓｕｒｆａｃｅｏｆｓｔａｉｎｌｅｓｓｓｔｅｅｌｃａｎｉｎｃｒｅａｓｅｔｈｅｄｅｐｔｈｏｆｗｅｌｄｐｅｎｅ ｔｒａｔｉｏｎｉｎＴＩＧｗｅｌｄｉｎｇｂｙａｆａｃｔｏｒｏｆｔｈｒｅｅ[1] .Ｔｈｉｓｐｒｏｃｅｓｓｉｓｒｅｆｅｒｒｅｄｔｏａｓ”ＡＴＩＧ”ｏｒＴＩＧｗｅｌｄｉｎｇａｃｔｉ ｖａｔｅｄｂｙｆｌｕｘ .Ｔｈｅｒｅｈａｖｅｂｅｅｎｔｈｒｅｅｐｕｂｌｉｓｈｅｄｐｈｙｓ ｉｃａｌｍｅｃｈａｎｉｓｍｓｔｈａｔａｒｅｐｏｓｓｉｂｌｅｃｏｎｔｒｉ…     

The gene encoding ganglioside-induced differentiation-associated protein 1 is mutated in axonal Charcot-Marie-Tooth type 4A disease.

We identified three distinct mutations and six mutant alleles in GDAP1 in three families with axonal Charcot-Marie-Tooth (CMT) neuropathy and vocal cord paresis, which were previously linked to the CMT4A locus on chromosome 8q21.1. These results establish the molecular etiology of CMT4A (MIM 214400) and suggest that it may be associated with both axonal and demyelinating phenotypes.