Low European methyl chloroform emissions inferred from long-term atmospheric measurements

Methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3, 1,1,1,-trichloroethane) was used widely as a solvent before it was recognized to be an ozone-depleting substance and its phase-out was introduced under the Montreal Protocol. Subsequently, its atmospheric concentration has declined steadily and recent European methyl chloroform consumption and emissions were estimated to be less than 0.1 gigagrams per year. However, data from a short-term tropospheric measurement campaign (EXPORT) indicated that European methyl chloroform emissions could have been over 20 gigagrams in 2000 (ref. 6), almost doubling previously estimated global emissions. Such enhanced emissions would significantly affect results from the CH3CC13 method of deriving global abundances of hydroxyl radicals (OH) (refs 7-12)-the dominant reactive atmospheric chemical for removing trace gases related to air pollution, ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. Here we use long-term, high-frequency data from Mace Head, Ireland and Jungfraujoch, Switzerland, to infer European methyl chloroform emissions. We find that European emission estimates declined from about 60 gigagrams per year in the mid-1990s to 0.3-1.4 and 1.9-3.4 gigagrams per year in 2000-03, based on Mace Head and Jungfraujoch data, respectively. Our European methyl chloroform emission estimates are therefore higher than calculated from consumption data, but are considerably lower than those derived from the EXPORT campaign in 2000 (ref. 6).     

Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia

Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A viruses are now endemic in avian populations in Southeast Asia, and human cases continue to accumulate. Although currently incapable of sustained human-to-human transmission, H5N1 represents a serious pandemic threat owing to the risk of a mutation or reassortment generating a virus with increased transmissibility. Identifying public health interventions that might be able to halt a pandemic in its earliest stages is therefore a priority. Here we use a simulation model of influenza transmission in Southeast Asia to evaluate the potential effectiveness of targeted mass prophylactic use of antiviral drugs as a containment strategy. Other interventions aimed at reducing population contact rates are also examined as reinforcements to an antiviral-based containment policy. We show that elimination of a nascent pandemic may be feasible using a combination of geographically targeted prophylaxis and social distancing measures, if the basic reproduction number of the new virus is below 1.8. We predict that a stockpile of 3 million courses of antiviral drugs should be sufficient for elimination. Policy effectiveness depends critically on how quickly clinical cases are diagnosed and the speed with which antiviral drugs can be distributed.     

A Silurian sea spider

Pycnogonids (sea spiders) are marine arthropods numbering some 1,160 extant species. They are globally distributed in depths of up to 6,000 metres, and locally abundant; however, their typically delicate form and non-biomineralized cuticle has resulted in an extremely sparse fossil record that is not accepted universally. There are two opposing views of their phylogenetic position: either within Chelicerata as sister group to the euchelicerates, or as a sister taxon to all other euarthropods. The Silurian Herefordshire Konservat-Lagerstatte in England (approximately 425 million years (Myr) bp) yields exceptionally preserved three-dimensional fossils that provide unrivalled insights into the palaeobiology of a variety of invertebrates. The fossils are preserved as calcitic void in-fills in carbonate concretions within a volcaniclastic horizon, and are reconstructed digitally. Here we describe a new pycnogonid from this deposit, which is the oldest adult sea spider by approximately 35 Myr and the most completely known fossil species. The large chelate first appendage is consistent with a chelicerate affinity for the pycnogonids. Cladistic analyses place the new species near the base of the pycnogonid crown group, implying that the latter had arisen by the Silurian period.     

Apolipoprotein L-I is the trypanosome lytic factor of human serum

Human sleeping sickness in east Africa is caused by the parasite Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense. The basis of this pathology is the resistance of these parasites to lysis by normal human serum (NHS). Resistance to NHS is conferred by a gene that encodes a truncated form of the variant surface glycoprotein termed serum resistance associated protein (SRA). We show that SRA is a lysosomal protein, and that the amino-terminal alpha-helix of SRA is responsible for resistance to NHS. This domain interacts strongly with a carboxy-terminal alpha-helix of the human-specific serum protein apolipoprotein L-I (apoL-I). Depleting NHS of apoL-I, by incubation with SRA or anti-apoL-I, led to the complete loss of trypanolytic activity. Addition of native or recombinant apoL-I either to apoL-I-depleted NHS or to fetal calf serum induced lysis of NHS-sensitive, but not NHS-resistant, trypanosomes. Confocal microscopy demonstrated that apoL-I is taken up through the endocytic pathway into the lysosome. We propose that apoL-I is the trypanosome lytic factor of NHS, and that SRA confers resistance to lysis by interaction with apoL-I in the lysosome.     

Diagnostic tracking and model specification in combined forecasts of U.K. inflation

Combinations of several forecasts are now quite commonly used as inputs into business planning models. For example, capital budgeting generally involves a synthesis of several sources of economic forecasts. In such cases, where uncertainty and risk are also being explicitly considered, the statistical specification of the combined forecasts becomes particularly important. An investigation of the monthly forecasts of annual inflation from nine leading U.K. economic models was undertaken to examine the circumstances under which well-specified and efficient combined forecasts could be produced. This has helped to refine the general guidelines for the practical use of combinations in planning models.